Arizona Diamondbacks: Tony Clark was an endangered
species in the baseball universe entering 2005. His ability to hit for
average and get on base evaporated over the last few years, leaving only a
fading power stroke. But like the ivory billed woodpecker, which was
feared lost forever before being recently rediscovered in the swamplands
of Arkansas, Clark has improbably resurrected his career in the air
conditioning of Arizona. Ornithologists have a recording of the
woodpecker’s distinctive call to back up their find, and we have the Marginal
Lineup Value Rate leader board as proof of Clark’s revival:
Name PA OPS MLVr Derrek Lee 476 1110 0.583 Albert Pujols 490 1066 0.543 Miguel Cabrera 468 1019 0.501 Tony Clark 238 1031 0.433 Alex Rodriguez 484 1006 0.415
In June, Notebook
uncovered that Clark was among the DBacks leaders in VORP
despite having only half the playing time of Arizona’s regulars. Nearly
two months later, Clark has moved to first on the Snakes with a 29.7
VORP, fueled by a line of .321/.366/.665 and 19 home runs in only 238
plate appearances. Clark, in his age-33 season, has already amassed 2/3 of
his previous high in VORP, 45.5 in 1998, with only 35% of the 673 PA he
received that year. Because VORP is a cumulative measure of offensive
production and not a rate stat, the fact that Clark leads Arizona
despite trailing nine of his teammates in plate appearances is truly amazing.
Any analysis of Clark’s rise from the ashes, however, needs to be
slapped with a standard-issue “sample size” sticker. The relatively small
amount of playing time in which Clark has done his damage, combined with
his age and PECOTA
preseason forecast (weighted mean of .225/.305/.417) are sure markers
of a fluke season. Clark’s 2005 is reminiscent of Carlos
Baerga‘s 2003, when the 34-year-old put up a .343/.396/.464 line in
231 PA in his first year with the Snakes. The desert heat (not to
mention a 1052 three-year park
factor at the BoB) can create mirages. Given that all-world prospect
Conor Jackson‘s defensive woes limit him to playing first
base–he has already shifted down the defensive spectrum twice, from third
base in college to left field in the minors to first with Arizona–the
Diamondbacks should have thought hard about parting ways with Clark
after the season rather than paying through arbitration or free agency for
an aberrant ’05. The Snakes instead handed Clark a two
year extension last week, with a no-trade clause for the first 1.5
years, a deal which, born out of the excitement of Clark’s career year,
looks to be an irrational payout for past (and current) performance
rather than future value.
While Clark has been a major surprise, Brian Bruney,
expected to be a key cog in the bullpen, has failed to pitch up to
expectations. Brandon Lyon, out since May 13 with
tendonitis in his right elbow, remains second among Arizona relievers in expected
wins added above replacement (WXRL) despite having thrown just 18
1/3 innings, an indication of the instability of the DBacks pen. Bruney,
called upon to be the stopper in Lyon’s absence, has 46 strikeouts in
40 1/3 innings, but has walked 5.82 per nine and allowed opponents to
slug .472 against him, surrendering five home runs. All that has added up
to a 6.69 ERA, and though it was worth seeing if Bruney could harness
his command to dominate in high leverage situations, there is evidence
Arizona stuck with him too long:
Player IP WXRL LEVERAGE Brandon Lyon 18.3 1.423 1.77 Brian Bruney 40.3 -0.546 1.56 Lance Cormier 58 2.241 1.42 Jose Valverde 43.7 0.465 1.10 Mike Koplove 49.3 0.497 0.97 Greg Aquino 17.3 0.171 0.86
Bruney has been the second worst Arizona reliever as measured by WXRL,
yet after Lyon, he has been placed in the highest leverage
situations, meaning his wildness has cost the Diamondbacks even more
than his bloated ERA indicates. Manager Bob Melvin has recently begun to
give the pressurized innings to Jose Valverde, who
sports a 54:14 K:BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings, and Greg
Aquino, who has a 20:9 K:BB in 17 1/3 innings, and with Lyon and Mexican flamethrower Oscar Villarreal set to rejoin Arizona
shortly, the Diamondbacks can expect their bullpen to turn from a
liability to an asset for the stretch drive. Of course, it remains to be seen
whether a division as bad as the
2005 NL West can experience a stretch drive, rather than just a
period where one team flails around less than the others. Arizona’s 18%
chance
at the division is not trivial, however, and improved relief work
would help keep the Diamondbacks outperforming their Pythagenport
record.
Oakland Athletics: Clay Davenport’s Postseason Odds
Report just became even more impressive with two straightforward
additions. First, the basic report includes “Average wins by
position” in each division; now we can see what Davenport’s
simulations show as the final win totals for each spot in the
division (regardless of which team actually finishes there). For
example, as of press time, the Postseason Odds report showed the last
place team in the NL East finishing with 79 wins, while the second
place team in the NL West finishes with only 78 wins.
Second, the report now links each team name to a day-by-day progress
report from all of the previous postseason-odds reports. This allows us to
see, for example, the Athletics’ explosive rise from a 0.368% chance
of reaching the playoffs on June 19th to their August 9th playoff
probability of 76.278%.
As Jay Jaffe noted in this week’s Prospectus Hit
List, the A’s have gone an obscene 46-15 since May 29, after
starting the season with a 19-32 record. The team has dominated on
both sides of the ball during their recent run, scoring 5.89 runs per
game and allowing just 3.32.
One of the most curious puzzles of the A’s season
has been the surprising success of starter Kirk Saarloos. At press time Saarloos had a 4.21 ERA good for 53rd out of 102 qualifying pitchers in both the AL and NL, a 4.29 RA (40th out of 102), a 4.25 Park-Adjusted ERA (40th out of 102), and an RA+
of 1.13 (35th out of 102). By every measure
but the notoriously problematic ERA Saarloos is an above average
major league starter (and that’s without acknowledging that many
starters don’t even make it into this group of 102 qualifiers because
they are either injured or unable to perform well enough to remain in
the rotation).
The problem with Saarloos from a performance analysis standpoint is
that he is succeeding with the most dismal strikeout rate in baseball
2.62 SO/9 (102nd out of 102). His walk rate
is a decent 2.78 BB/9 (62nd out of 102), but his strikeout rate is still so low as to
leave him with the absolute worst SO/BB rate amongst qualifiers.
What is going on here? His hit rate is an average 9.45 H/9 (66th out of 102), so that’s not it. You can also
forget looking at the opposing lineups. The Quality of Batters Faced Report shows that Saarloos has
faced an average hitter with a composite line of .269/.335/.427.
Amongst the 146 pitchers with at least 300 opponent plate appearances
that composite line is 130th easiest in terms of
batting average, 128th in terms of on-base percentage, and 128th in terms of slugging rate. If anything Saarloos has been
at a disadvantage in terms of the quality of his competition.
So, really, what is going on? Well, it looks like a rather
complicated mixture of factors. First of all, Oakland’s defense is
damn good. They lead the majors in Defensive Efficiency (0.716) and the last time James Click ran his Park
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency numbers he had Oakland turning
1.10% more BIP into outs than would be expected by their schedule.
That’s good for the 9th best defense in the game. The defense is
surely the explanation for Saarloos’ well-above average BABIP of .291
(which ranks 27th luckiest out of 102 qualifiers).
Second, Saarloos is keeping the ball in the park at an outstanding
rate. His HR/9 IP rate of 0.64 is good for 13th out of 102 qualifiers and puts him in rarified air. Part
of that HR rate is no doubt due to the home ballpark (McAfee
Coliseum being the third worst park in baseball for HRs this year), but it should be pointed out that the next nearest Athletic in
the HR/9 sortable stat report is Barry Zito all the
way down at 49th. Saarloos is showing off an outstanding control over
the long ball. This is no small matter: if you’re going to put guys
on base at an average rate, and you’re not going to strike guys out,
you need to make sure that the balls you allow to be put into play
don’t automatically plate runs.
Third, Saarloos is getting a ton of help from his bullpen. Of 103
qualifiers, Saarloos left the fourth-most bequeathed runners in baseball. Saarloos is getting
pulled in the middle of innings with lots of runners on the bases and
his team’s relievers are bailing him out of trouble. The Oakland pen
gave him far better than average support, allowing 1.382 fewer of those runners to score than you would
expect based on league average rates. This gives him a better ERA
than is really fair.
It’s a puzzle, but it’s not totally baffling. Saarloos is succeeding
on the back of a good Oakland defense, a good Oakland bullpen, and
with powerful control over his HR allowed rate. The real question is:
how sustainable is this success going forward, especially considering
how far Saarloos’ 2005 line is from his pre-season PECOTA
projection?
Washington Nationals: Last Saturday at 4 p.m., Nationals’ manager Frank Robinson called a team meeting before their game against the Padres. They had lost 20 of the previous 28 games, losing their first place position in the NL East in the process. Afterward, players did not reveal specific details about the meeting, though it was known that the major topic involved how to win close games the way they had in the first half. The players themselves did most of the talking. Baseball Prospectus has obtained a transcript of that meeting, dutifully transcribed by reserve outfielder Matt Cepicky, who was promptly DFAd on Monday.
Frank Robinson: Guys, thank you for coming, and thank you for showing up in uniform. I think it says a lot about this team that we’re…
(Nick Johnson runs in, huffing, still buttoning his shirt)
Johnson: Sorry I’m late, guys.
Robinson (looking at him quizzically): Aren’t you still on the DL?
Johnson: No, man. I’ve been back for 10 games. I lead the team in VORP with 35.7, and VORPr with .413. If I had been healthy all season, that means I’d have a VORP of 46.2 and I’d be third in the NL among first basemen.
Robinson: Right, right, VORP. Well, have a seat.
Johnson (turns to Brian Schneider): Hey, I’ve been thinking. Don’t you think I look a little like Private Pyle from Full Metal Jacket?
Schneider: Yeah!
(general approval from around the room)
Robinson: Guys? Please? So as I was saying, we need to stick together during these times of adversity. We’re really being tested here, like we were tested in 1989 when I was managing the Orioles and…Esteban, are listing to your iPod?
Esteban Loaiza: Oh, yeah, sorry coach. I was just listening to the Baseball Prospectus Radio Podcast. I stole the iPod from Tomo Ohka, if that helps. Anyway, did you know that I’ve been one of the more useful offseason pickups? It’s true. My VORP of 31.8 is third-best on the team, and I’ve only walked 2.21 per nine innings while striking out 6.83/9. I’ve also been pretty stingy with the home run, as I’ve only allowed .86 per nine…
John Patterson: Yeah! I know, I’ve been pretty good, too, by VORP.
Livan Hernandez: VORP? Man, you’re nothing until you lead all of baseball in Pitcher Abuse Points. I’ve got 418,490. That’s 310,115 more than Zambrano in Chicago. I average 17,437 per start. That’s average, tio. What’s my VORP? Like, a thousand?
Patterson: No, it’s 40.4. I lead the team with 47.3, despite making just 20 starts. I wonder, though, how much of our success is because of the pretty spacious ballpark we play in. I mean, I’ve allowed just one home run in 308 ABs at home, and on the road, I’ve allowed six in just 154. What’s up with that? Does anyone else have a discrepancy in their HR/AB home/road splits?
Tony Armas Jr.: Yeah. .028 to .060.
Hernandez: Yeah, me too. .017 to .020. I just like this ballpark is all.
Robinson: Guys? Please? We’ve lost 20 of our last 28 games here. No more iPods, OK? No more splits. Now, we need to change things up to start winning again. I think we really need to…
Cristian Guzman: Hey, let’s dress a rookie up like a girl again!
Gary Majewski, Ryan Church, Tony Blanco (in unison): No!
Hernandez: We went 13-4 in one-run games up until the All Star Break after Tony Robbins spoke to us on June 1st. Remember his lecture “Unleash the Power Within in One-Run Games”? We could call him again.
Joey Eischen: We’ve been 0-11 in one run games since the ASB. Heinous, dude.
Church: Most heinous.
Chad Cordero: Don’t look at me. I’ve allowed just one earned run since the All Star Break. I lead the majors in WXRL.
Luis Ayala: I’m 32nd. Out of 425 guys, man.
Majewski: Yeah, I’m 38th.
Eischen (looking at the floor): I’ve got a bad feeling about today.
Cordero: I don’t think the bullpen’s the problem.
Carlos Baerga: Man, you never think the bullpen’s the problem. What is the problem, then?
(all eyes turn toward Cristian Guzman)
Guzman (sighs audibly): My bad.
Jamey Carroll: Yeah, my bad, too. A .216 EqA doesn’t cut it, not even off the bench.
Gary Bennett: Yeah, speaking of lousy bats off the bench, I’ve got a .220 EqA.
Guzman: Man, I’m a starter and mine’s .173.
Preston Wilson: Sorry, guys. I tried to warn him…
Brad Wilkerson: And I’m somewhere between my 25th and 40th percentile PECOTA projection.
Vinny Castilla: I’m sorry, too, for…everything.
Baerga: Oh, it’s true! I don’t know how to play this game!
Jose Guillen: My arm hurts.
(the room explodes as 17 guys take the blame, promising to take more pitches, to throw harder, to work the inside corner, and stay away from sliders low and away).
Robinson: I’ve got a better idea, guys. (Heads over to a six-foot tall cloth-covered mystery item). We need a better incentive to win. (Removes cloth, revealing a life-sized cardboard cutout of Jim Bowden wearing nothing but a leopard-print speedo and a giant bling-bling necklace with the letters “GM” heavily diamond-studded. He’s smiling, and giving two thumbs up). For every game we win from here on out, we cover up one more piece. (Robinson places a single swatch of suit jacket over Bowden’s naked left shoulder). Now we go out there today, and we win one. And then we win another.
(stunned silence)
Cordero: Uh, Coach? Where’d you get…
Robinson: Let’s go get ’em, guys! (leads charge to playing field).
Thank you for reading
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