September 5, 2005

Swinging for the Fences

Does Missing Matter?

by Will Carroll and Mike Carminati

In 1999, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire battled for the National League home run title, just one year after their record-setting chase that ended with both breaking Roger Maris’ single season home run record. On September 18, 1999, Sosa drilled a Jason Bere offering over the ivy at Wrigley for his sixtieth home run of the season, becoming the first man to hit sixty roundtrippers in two separate seasons. McGwire became the second man to accomplish this feat eight days later and again beat Sosa out for the home run crown, 65 to 63. Though both again bested Maris' old record, their 1999 campaign is now a footnote to the history of the home run chase that re-energized baseball in the late 90’s.

Just as an out-of-the-blue bolt of plate discipline presaged Sosa’s assent, his decline might have been predicted by his tendency to swing and miss that haunted him even in his stellar 1999 season. Sosa swung at and missed 475 pitches in his record-setting 1999 campaign. This is the highest total for any major-league batter over the last five seasons and isn’t the “swing and a miss!” call of the announcer the cruelest fate in baseball? But what does it mean in the greater scheme?

Does having a tendency to swing and miss more than most impair a batter's productivity as we have been told since Little League? Do batters with better batting eyes tend to be more productive than the average batter? Is it better to be patient at the plate or go for the first pitch you can hit? Does this data tell us anything new and could that be used to help build a better team or find successful players?

First, let's take at the Sosa-inspired SAM (Swing And Miss) batter. As you can see from this list of the leaders in swinging strikes over the past five seasons, the concept is aptly named:

                         Swinging
Player          Year      Strikes   Home Runs  Strikeouts
---------------------------------------------------------
Sammy Sosa      1999        475        63        171
Sammy Sosa      2001        431        64        153
Sammy Sosa      2000        422        50        168
Alfonso Soriano 2002        406        39        157
Mo Vaughn       2000        405        36        181
Jim Thome       2003        403        47        182
Preston Wilson  2000        394        31        187
Richie Sexson   2001        389        45        178
Jim Thome       2000        387        37        171
Sammy Sosa      2002        385        49        144
Dean Palmer     1999        383        38        153
Jacque Jones    2002        374        27        129
Richie Sexson   2000        372        30        159
Craig Wilson    2004        371        29        169
Jose Hernandez  2002        365        24        188

If this is any indication, then a large number of swinging strikes does not appear to be a detriment to one's ability to produce. All of the batters listed had some degree of offensive success--the lowest home run total is 24. However, they struck out a ton. Does power hitting require this type of all or nothing approach?

Perhaps a glimpse at the other end of the spectrum will shed some light. Here are the batters who collected the lowest number of swinging strikes while batting enough to qualify for a batting title:

                         Swinging
Player            Year    Strikes  Home Runs  Strikeouts
--------------------------------------------------------
Brian Roberts     2003        54        5        58
Placido Polanco   2003        57       14        38
Juan Pierre       2003        58        1        35
David Eckstein    2003        59        3        45
Juan Pierre       2001        63        2        29
Juan Pierre       2004        63        3        35
Placido Polanco   2004        63       17        39
Eric Young        1999        64        2        26
Luis Castillo     2001        67        2        90
Mark Grace        2001        68       15        36
Jason Kendall     2002        68        3        29
Luis Castillo     2003        70        6        60
Fernando Vina     2002        71        1        36
Scott Hatteberg   2003        71       12        53
Scott Hatteberg   2004        72       15        48
Mark Grace        2000        73       11        28
Brian Giles       2002        74       38        74

There is not a lot of power there. You should note the exception is Brian Giles and his 38 dingers in 2002. Clearly, there seems to be some relationship between high swinging strike totals and high home run totals, but it is far from absolute.

Let's take a look at a few examples to see if swinging strikes have plagued those batters' careers:

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