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March 30, 2006

Prospectus Today

AL Central Preview

by Joe Sheehan

Were it not for the presence of the Royals, the AL Central could lay claim to being the best division in baseball. It includes three legitimate playoff contenders and a .500 team that some people like as a sleeper. The Royals--mismanaged, misshapen, miserable--drag the quartet down like Schopenhauer readings at a frat party.

Of course, the good teams in the division don’t mind, happy that the unbalanced schedule allows them to take advantage of the downtrodden Kansas City team. In fact, the Royals will give up so many wins in the division that they’ll help produce its first-ever wild-card winner.

At the top of the group, though, are the Minnesota Twins. Twins pitchers have reduced their job to its bare elements: throw strikes. They issued just 348 walks last year, the lowest figure by an AL pitching staff since 1919. Almost the entire staff returns, bolstered by the addition of young starters Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker, who won’t do much to add to the walk total. Walking so few hitters while sustaining a solid home-run rate puts the Twins way ahead in the run-prevention game; they should challenge the A’s for fewest runs allowed in the AL this year.

They’ll score more than enough to make that a winner. Terry Ryan is relying heavily on better years from Justin Morneau and Jason Bartlett, but he also made moves to upgrade lineup holes last year, bringing in Luis Castillo to play second and Rondell White to DH. Neither is a star, but each provides OBP and either speed or power, helping to fill out a lineup that had far too many near-automatic outs in 2005. It’s not an overpowering offense, but it will push past 700 runs; the apparent return of Jason Kubel adds a legitimate #3 hitter to the mix.

The White Sox, remember, were a true 91-win team last year, so projecting them to win 90 isn’t foreseeing much decline. Kenny Williams’ bold offseason moves to acquire Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez, both of whom were disappointing in the NL last year, were a strike against the stagnation that often accompanies a post-season parade. Thome is a risky pickup, 35 years old and possessing a bad back. He’s a key player in a lineup that had no left-handed power and a serious OBP problem last year. If you recall, the White Sox won in spite of their offense, not because of it.

They’ll need to score a few more runs in ’06, because they’re almost certainly going to allow more. The Sox had one of the best team defenses of my lifetime last season, a group that was critical to their leading the league in ERA. Swapping out Aaron Rowand for Brian Anderson is the only change, one that should cost a few runs, but the real reason I expect the defense to be a bit worse is simply regression. Their ’05 work was so good that it’s unlikely to be sustained. Still, they have room to decline and still be a very good defensive team, the pitching staff is talented and deep, and they’ll score more runs. Unless they go 8-11 against the Royals or something, they should be the wild card team.