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March 20, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

PECOTA Projected Standings, AL and NL East

by Nate Silver

This is traditionally the time of year at which I reveal the PECOTA-projected divisional standings, but given that the cat has jumped out of the bag and leaped onto our depth charts homepage, we’re going to do things a little bit differently this time around. Rather than telling you where PECOTA is right, we’re going to tell you where it’s wrong.

That’s right – I’m going to bet against my own forecasting system.

For each of the thirty clubs, I’m going to identify one player for whom I think the PECOTA forecast looks low (“Take the Over”) based on statistical, injury or scouting information that isn’t picked up by the system, or where that doesn’t work, just based on general gut-feel. We’ll do the same thing for a projection that looks too optimistic (“Take the Under”). Finally, I’ll present an adjusted overall W-L forecast based on these sorts of factors, as well as ‘meta’ variables like the strength of a team’s management, its depth, and its disposition toward or against making trades (“The Verdict”).

One exception to this rule: I’m also going to point out one PECOTA projection that might be out of line with the expectations of other forecasters, but where I think the system is getting it right (“Sticking to My Guns”).

We’ll break this mini-series down into three parts, canvassing the country from East to West. Today we start somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

AL EAST