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March 21, 2007

Future Shock

State of the Systems, NL Central

by Kevin Goldstein

This year's State Of The Systems features some new categories, so before we get going, some of the sections require a little bit of explanation.

• 2007 Rookies: Simple enough--what first-year players will contribute in the big leagues this year.
• Minor League Road Trip: A common question I get via e-mail goes something like this: "I live in [minor league town], who should I look for?" For each team I'll identify to full-season affiliate that should have the most compelling squad. Keep in mind that this is a research-driven hypothesis, and that spring performances, injuries and organizational needs can mean certain players don't end up where expected.
• Pivotal Season: For this category, I'll identify one player who is at a crossroads in his young career.
• I Like Him Better Than Most/Don't Believe The Hype: Last year's selections have already been reviewed, and I think overall, I did pretty well here – they're always among the most popular, so they return.
• Pedroia/Clippard Award: Named after Red Sox infielder Dustin and Yankees righthander Tyler, this is the one player who fans of that team tend to overrate by going on statistics alone.
• Jackson/Griffin Award: In the interest of fairness, this award goes to the player who is the opposite. The tools are certainly there, but where is the performance? The award is named after two of the all-time tools busts in draft history–-outfielder Jeff Jackson (Philles first round, 1989) and triple-digit flamethrower Colt Griffin (Royals first round, 2001)
• Get Your Bags Ready: When the trade deadline comes down, prospects are always part of the discussion. Who could be available? Who do teams want? Who's a likely candidate to be moved because he's blocked?

Chicago Cubs

• 2007 Rookies: Rookies and Lou Piniella don't mix – luckily the Cubs have little to offer and will likely break camp without a rookie on the roster. Outfielder Felix Pie should make his debut at some point in the season, while reliever Rocky Cherry, who had an impressive camp, begins the year at Triple-A as the first bullpen arm to call on should the need arise. He's not any kind of future stud, but he should be of some value.
• Minor League Road Trip: Double-A Tennessee will have a rotation that features the two top pitching prospects in the organization, with lefthander Donald Veal and righty Sean Gallagher, a twelfth-round pick in 2004. No sure things in the lineup, but sluggers Ryan Harvey and Brian Dopirak both look for rebound seasons.
• Pivotal Season: Three years ago, Dopirak chased the Midwest League home run record, finishing with 39, a .307/.363/.593 batting line and an MVP award. He suffered through a tough 2005 in the Florida State League the following year, and 2006 was even worse, as a broken foot limited him to just 52 games, in which he went deep just once in 179 at-bats. If he fails to get back on track this year, it's unlikely he ever will.

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