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April 20, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

PECOTA Takes On Right-handed Pitching Prospects

by Nate Silver

PECOTA versus Baseball America on pitching prospects was where we left off. Today righthanders get all the attention.

Excellent Prospects
Player (Age)                                Upside
xx. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox (26)          216.7
1. Tim Lincecum, Giants (23)                 205.6
2. Philip Hughes, Yankees (21)               197.2
3. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers (21)             132.4
4. Kevin Slowey, Twins (23)                  123.3

The conventional wisdom is that the title of best pitching prospect in baseball–-non-foreign import category-–is a toss-up between Philip Hughes and Homer Bailey. PECOTA begs to differ, suggesting that Tim Lincecum belongs in the discussion. Certainly, comparing Lincecum to Hughes or Bailey does not seem like an apples-to-apples exercise–-Lincecum had only 31 2/3 professional innings under his belt entering this season, whereas Hughes and Bailey have a couple hundred apiece. Indeed, PECOTA was not originally designed with the idea of evaluating partial-season performances, and it may not be discounting the limited extent of Lincecum’s performance enough.

Nevertheless, Lincecum’s numbers were absolutely off the charts last season. Following are the top 10 strikeout rates for minor league starting pitchers in the PECOTA database, which runs back to 1997. These are translated (major league equivalent) numbers, framed as strikeout percentage rather than strikeouts per nine innings. A minimum of 100 batters faced is required.

Pitcher                     Year         K%
Tim Lincecum                2006        30.9%
Scott Kazmir                2002        28.6%
Ryan Anderson               2000        28.5%
Brad Lidge                  2001        27.4%
Josh Beckett                2001        26.8%
Jesse Foppert               2002        25.9%
Juan Pena                   1999        25.9%
Rich Hill                   2005        25.5%
Francisco Liriano           2005        25.5%
Paul Abbott                 1997        25.3%