“They both [statistics & bikinis] show a lot, but not everything.”
–Infielder Toby Harrah
Last week in this space we updated our projection of Nationals slugging outfielder Wily Mo Pena. In doing so, we noted anecdotally the difficulty that Pena has had in laying off of pitches out of the strike zone, particularly from right-handers. As we discussed in a previous column, the wealth of data provided by PITCHf/x now allows us to quantify just to what extent our analysis of Pena–or any player for that matter–is on track. So today we’ll hail the return of the “Fish Eye” as we update our look at plate discipline.
Revealing a Little More
For those who missed our last installment on this topic, we’ll bring you up to speed. Using the location data provided by PITCHf/x (plotted as the pitch reaches the front of home plate), combined with the customized strike zone provided for each plate appearance, we can get a pretty good idea of whether a pitch offered at by a hitter would have been within the regulation strike zone. Likewise, if the hitter did not swing at a pitch that should have been called a strike, we can note that as well. By adding up the “balls” that were swung at, the “strikes” that weren’t, and everything in between (as well as making a few adjustments for the count along the way) we can create new metrics that collectively give us a picture of what has traditionally been termed plate discipline.
Although in our previous analyses of umpires we’ve used a buffer zone to give them the benefit of the doubt, here we do not; we simply use the standard 17-inch-wide plate, along with the actual height customized for the player.
With that in mind, there are two differences this time around. When the earlier column was published, we only had about 60,000 pitches to analyze from a handful of ballparks; now we have four times that many, from all but three of the ballparks (Baltimore, Washington, and Pittsburgh are not operational). The result is that we have many more players with decent sample sizes to look at. Secondly, we previously showed three metrics in addition to the more common percentage of pitches swung at, whereas now we’ve added a fourth to our collection. Those four are:
- Square: This is the new metric, defined as the percentage of pitches in the strike zone swung at and made contact with. A high value here (relative to the average of over 87 percent) indicates that when the batter offers at a strike he usually makes contact. On the contrary, a lower value indicates hitters who, for reasons such as a long swing, are more apt to swing through strikes.
- Fish: Defined as the percentage of pitches out of the strike zone that the hitter swung at. A higher percentage here indicates that the hitter may have trouble recognizing pitches since he is offering at pitches that would likely be called balls. Average values here are between 32 and 33 percent.
- Bad Ball: Defined as the percentage of pitches out of the strike zone that were swung at where contact was made. This includes foul balls, although there is an argument to be made that a foul ball is not the intended outcome, and so should be discounted in some way. A higher value in this category indicates that, when swinging at bad pitches, the hitter is at least able to get the bat on the ball. Average values lie around 73 percent.
- Eye: Defined as the percentage of pitches in the strike zone on non-three and zero counts that were taken for strikes. A smaller value in this metric indicates a player who recognizes strikes and aggressively offers at them. I excluded 3-0 counts, since a hitter is much more likely to let a strike go by in this situation, and we don’t want to penalize them for that behavior. Average values here are in the range of 25 to 27 percent.
So, with those four fields added to our arsenal, when we look at these metrics for Wily Mo Pena, we find the following:
Square Fish BadBall Eye
vs RHPs .765 .432 .458 .148
vs LHPs .758 .316 .600 .250
This indicates that against both lefties and righties Pena swings through more than his fair share of pitches, as indicated by low Square values that together place him among the bottom five right-handed hitters in the game. Against right-handers he also offers at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone (a high Fish rate) and is not particularly successful in getting the bat on the ball when he does. This is indicated by a low Bad Ball value, which, when combined with his rate against lefties, puts him at the very bottom of all qualifying right-handed hitters. However, he is clearly aggressive on pitches in the strike zone (an Eye of .148). Against southpaws, he lays off the questionable pitches (a Fish rate below average) and is more comfortable in letting the occasional tough strike go by (an average Eye).
With that, the remainder of this article will be a data dump of sorts. I’ll provide a number of data points and visuals for you pattern-seeking creatures to dissect.
Our Leaders
We can now take a look at the leader boards in these four metrics for hitters from each side of the plate who have seen 250 or more pitches. Keep in mind that despite having more data, there are still a few regular players, mostly switch-hitters, who haven’t reached the qualifying number of plate appearances.
Right-Handed Hitters Sorted by Square Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Jamey Carroll 263 1.000 .287 .822 .337 Jeff Keppinger 426 .982 .216 .860 .361 David Eckstein 640 .978 .389 .921 .279 Reggie Willits 369 .975 .187 .833 .420 Kevin Mench 308 .970 .293 .925 .363 Ramon Martinez 400 .968 .251 .800 .403 Dustin Pedroia 707 .964 .287 .832 .298 Rafael Furcal 388 .963 .297 .848 .274 Placido Polanco 812 .963 .294 .910 .289 Derek Jeter 440 .962 .346 .796 .130 -------------------------------------------------------- Andruw Jones 1464 .771 .337 .708 .215 Marcus Thames 356 .763 .436 .659 .235 Jayson Werth 400 .763 .309 .836 .426 Sammy Sosa 1043 .759 .354 .576 .215 Nelson Cruz 797 .750 .346 .622 .252 Wily Mo Pena 329 .747 .384 .519 .190 Olmedo Saenz 293 .744 .285 .745 .278 Jonny Gomes 374 .732 .385 .558 .206 John Buck 442 .703 .411 .676 .227 Mark Reynolds 611 .684 .358 .577 .238 Left-Handed Hitters Sorted by Square Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Melky Cabrera 295 1.000 .339 .836 .304 Jose Reyes 428 .979 .367 .757 .271 Juan Pierre 1407 .978 .337 .905 .336 Johnny Estrada 290 .971 .493 .838 .125 Luis Castillo 487 .971 .226 .938 .398 Alfredo Amezaga 278 .970 .271 .913 .248 Omar Vizquel 502 .966 .314 .806 .267 David DeJesus 815 .965 .279 .850 .347 Brian Giles 1252 .957 .193 .836 .280 Aaron Miles 292 .957 .462 .895 .260 -------------------------------------------------------- Jim Thome 1279 .782 .243 .626 .267 Carlos Pena 561 .768 .283 .562 .180 Carlos Delgado 520 .754 .382 .688 .200 Terrmel Sledge 527 .746 .278 .607 .238 Jason Smith 289 .736 .483 .453 .241 J. Saltalamacchia 452 .728 .348 .639 .154 Brad Hawpe 643 .727 .280 .616 .172 Jack Cust 1376 .692 .177 .524 .268 Rob Bowen 310 .647 .249 .489 .350 Russ Branyan 430 .597 .347 .495 .163
I know I said I’d leave it to the reader to find the patterns here, but there is something I’d like to point out. The low Square value for Brad Hawpe (.727) helps explain how a player with such a nice combination of Fish (.280) and Eye (.172) metrics (as you’ll see in the plots below) still strikes out as much as he does. He avoids swinging at bad pitches and aggressively offers at good ones, and has struck out 122 times in 452 at-bats because of his tendency to swing through pitches. The same can be said, to a lesser degree, of Jim Thome and Terrmel Sledge. Jack Cust, on the other hand, is even better at avoiding bad pitches, but doesn’t offer at as many strikes; combine this with his propensity to swing through pitches, and he’s K’d an amazing 141 times in 343 at-bats.
Right-Handed Hitters Sorted by Fish Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Ivan Rodriguez 588 .841 .544 .766 .208 Alfonso Soriano 766 .792 .509 .730 .191 Delmon Young 533 .805 .508 .651 .133 Tony Pena 512 .861 .500 .792 .198 Miguel Olivo 304 .838 .487 .527 .223 Vladimir Guerrero 1180 .874 .467 .746 .136 Craig Biggio 509 .860 .461 .667 .238 Brandon Phillips 698 .899 .446 .705 .215 Reed Johnson 528 .905 .442 .732 .383 Jose Molina 361 .833 .438 .730 .219 -------------------------------------------------------- Ryan Spilborghs 341 .865 .235 .660 .220 Morgan Ensberg 357 .832 .233 .583 .187 Jeff Conine 298 .888 .229 .872 .280 Troy Glaus 1236 .805 .228 .658 .297 Jeff Keppinger 426 .982 .216 .860 .361 Rickie Weeks 586 .874 .213 .649 .364 Marco Scutaro 910 .961 .211 .838 .287 Pat Burrell 649 .932 .210 .840 .346 Nick Swisher 472 .882 .199 .754 .396 Reggie Willits 369 .975 .187 .833 .420 Left-Handed Hitters Sorted by Fish Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Scott Thorman 535 .845 .493 .654 .227 Johnny Estrada 290 .971 .493 .838 .125 Corey Patterson 357 .854 .491 .750 .191 Jason Smith 289 .736 .483 .453 .241 Aaron Miles 292 .957 .462 .895 .260 A.J. Pierzynski 1053 .857 .448 .748 .150 Garret Anderson 939 .903 .447 .747 .319 Ross Gload 441 .903 .438 .821 .148 Erick Aybar 311 .929 .435 .850 .238 Alex Cintron 340 .878 .433 .767 .279 -------------------------------------------------------- Scott Hatteberg 519 .911 .229 .866 .245 Felipe Lopez 398 .916 .229 .768 .311 Luis Castillo 487 .971 .226 .938 .398 Barry Bonds 619 .908 .226 .816 .220 Wilson Betemit 535 .830 .224 .714 .278 Dan Johnson 1173 .886 .218 .765 .311 Reggie Willits 995 .931 .206 .770 .376 Bobby Abreu 586 .918 .194 .545 .336 Brian Giles 1252 .957 .193 .836 .280 Jack Cust 1376 .692 .177 .524 .268 Right Handed Hitters Sorted by Bad Ball Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Kevin Mench 308 .970 .293 .925 .363 David Eckstein 640 .978 .389 .921 .279 Randy Winn 282 .935 .303 .920 .281 Placido Polanco 812 .963 .294 .910 .289 Paul Lo Duca 333 .952 .350 .901 .254 Jason Kendall 1132 .939 .296 .889 .362 Mike Redmond 320 .930 .302 .882 .307 Ryan Theriot 866 .954 .311 .876 .309 Chipper Jones 414 .820 .297 .875 .266 Jeff Conine 298 .888 .229 .872 .280 -------------------------------------------------------- Brandon Inge 898 .837 .271 .565 .270 Josh Willingham 505 .823 .295 .562 .255 Royce Clayton 412 .852 .356 .560 .236 Jason Larue 275 .807 .364 .559 .191 Jonny Gomes 374 .732 .385 .558 .206 B.J. Upton 646 .784 .275 .551 .283 Dan Uggla 584 .814 .317 .547 .232 Jeff Mathis 452 .819 .365 .543 .226 Miguel Olivo 304 .838 .487 .527 .223 Wily Mo Pena 329 .747 .384 .519 .190 Left-Handed Hitters Sorted by Bad Ball Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Luis Castillo 487 .971 .226 .938 .398 Alfredo Amezaga 278 .970 .271 .913 .248 Juan Pierre 1407 .978 .337 .905 .336 Todd Helton 642 .924 .261 .904 .242 Aaron Miles 292 .957 .462 .895 .260 Josh Bard 746 .914 .293 .877 .217 Nick Punto 398 .945 .292 .870 .253 Scott Hatteberg 519 .911 .229 .866 .245 Brian Roberts 416 .951 .300 .865 .303 Sean Casey 619 .946 .409 .857 .357 -------------------------------------------------------- Luke Scott 528 .868 .325 .606 .153 Lance Berkman 627 .844 .308 .598 .143 Nick Swisher 1229 .835 .255 .595 .267 Ryan Howard 712 .793 .368 .575 .244 Carlos Pena 561 .768 .283 .562 .180 Bobby Abreu 586 .918 .194 .545 .336 Jack Cust 1376 .692 .177 .524 .268 Russ Branyan 430 .597 .347 .495 .163 Rob Bowen 310 .647 .249 .489 .350 Jason Smith 289 .736 .483 .453 .241 Right-Handed Hitters Sorted by Eye Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Angel Gonzalez 434 .894 .252 .754 .435 Jayson Werth 400 .763 .309 .836 .426 Reggie Willits 369 .975 .187 .833 .420 Ramon Martinez 400 .968 .251 .800 .403 Nick Swisher 472 .882 .199 .754 .396 Ryan Zimmerman 543 .896 .375 .680 .394 Reed Johnson 528 .905 .442 .732 .383 J.J. Hardy 708 .890 .279 .841 .367 Rickie Weeks 586 .874 .213 .649 .364 Albert Pujols 829 .956 .294 .839 .364 -------------------------------------------------------- Ty Wigginton 630 .839 .368 .609 .164 Jeff Kent 1188 .910 .274 .665 .163 Ryan Ludwick 458 .839 .363 .657 .154 Jay Payton 352 .920 .399 .740 .153 Jeff Francoeur 1320 .792 .434 .717 .142 Nomar Garciaparra 914 .909 .391 .785 .141 Vladimir Guerrero 1180 .874 .467 .746 .136 Delmon Young 533 .805 .508 .651 .133 Derek Jeter 440 .962 .346 .796 .130 Matt Holliday 643 .845 .399 .667 .124 Left-Handed Hitters Sorted by Eye Name Pitches Square Fish BadBall Eye Joe Mauer 591 .930 .259 .800 .418 Luis Castillo 487 .971 .226 .938 .398 Reggie Willits 995 .931 .206 .770 .376 Darin Erstad 749 .945 .289 .763 .373 Scott Podsednik 488 .914 .260 .849 .366 Sean Casey 619 .946 .409 .857 .357 Danny Richar 452 .925 .312 .732 .355 Rob Bowen 310 .647 .249 .489 .350 Jimmy Rollins 552 .928 .340 .806 .349 David DeJesus 815 .965 .279 .850 .347 -------------------------------------------------------- A.J. Pierzynski 1053 .857 .448 .748 .150 Ross Gload 441 .903 .438 .821 .148 Lance Berkman 627 .844 .308 .598 .143 Rick Ankiel 372 .809 .422 .685 .140 Milton Bradley 562 .817 .229 .654 .138 Carl Crawford 599 .832 .411 .675 .131 Johnny Estrada 290 .971 .493 .838 .125 Miguel Montero 259 .853 .363 .721 .122 Geoff Jenkins 572 .799 .428 .615 .103 Josh Hamilton 435 .858 .349 .711 .102
Graphically Speaking
Finally, as we talked about in the earlier column, the Fish and Eye metrics can be combined in a visual form that more clearly shows where players fall on the continuum of approaches to plate appearances. The resulting plot can then roughly be subdivided into four quadrants using the average values that characterize these approaches. The difference in what follows from what was developed previously is that on the advice of Russell Carleton, among others, I’ve inverted the values on both axes so that the more desirable outcomes are higher and to the right in the graph.
First, here are all qualifying (250 or more pitches seen) right-handed hitters:
Because that’s pretty noisy, we’ll break it down into individual plots of each quadrant, beginning in the upper left-hand corner, and moving clockwise:
And now for the left-handed hitters:
Once again, the following breaks it down by quadrant:
Thank you for reading
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