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November 27, 2007

Wait 'Til Next Year

Or December

by Bryan Smith

Over the next few weeks, Major League Baseball organizations will go through every name available on the Rule 5 eligibility list. They will dig through old scouting reports to trace the history of each player, attempting to build a case for spending $50,000 on any they judge worthy. If history repeats itself, these teams will start with the most recent scouting reports, weighing winter league reports on a plane higher than the rest. At the onset of the Arizona Fall League, I created a list of players whose second seasons were particularly important in their future, my attempt at the league’s best draft-eligible players. Of this list of ten players, seven were protected in October and November, with particularly notable (and 40-man roster spot-worthy) AFL seasons from Jack Egbert, Cory Wade, and Chris Dickerson.

Three, on the other hand, will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft on the last day of the Winter Meetings. Rockies third baseman Christian Colonel was unspectacular in the AFL, clubbing only one extra-base hit in ten games. Colonel has good power, and if teams believe he has enough versatility to help them off of the bench, he would be worth a pick due to his ability to club southpaws. Among prospective pitchers, I was surprised to see Sung Ki Jung left unprotected by the Braves after the right-hander struck out 15 batters in 11 1/3 innings. Jung’s near his peak at age 28, so if his slider drew any notice in Arizona, expect him to be snapped up in Nashville. Lastly, Snakes southpaw Mark Rosen had a disastrous AFL stint, allowing 20 baserunners in eight innings. Rosen’s return to his previous command problems is worrisome, but he induces a lot of grounders and has good velocity for a lefty. Teams confident in their pitching instruction and looking for a specialist should consider Rosen despite his AFL campaign.

However, Rosen is a special exception. In most circumstances, teams will weigh the Arizona Fall League heavily in their decisions to draft players. By my count, 25 hitters played in the Arizona Fall League that entered the league's season not on their parent organization’s 40-man roster, and so were eligible for the 2007 Rule 5 Draft. Of those players, 11 were subsequently protected in October or November, leaving 14 draft-eligible. The list is rather thin, but we’ll run through the highlights:

The Royals made a bold decision to leave Chris Lubanski, the fifth overall choice in the 2003 draft, exposed. Lubanski has had a topsy-turvy minor league career, looking horrible at times, but he's managed a .285/.350/.471 career line in 557 games. In 2007, Lubanski was solid in Double-A Wichita before a disastrous second half in Triple-A, where he hit just .208/.273/.363. The Royals are clearly stating that Lubanski is not ready for the major leagues, challenging teams to draft a raw talent the way the Mets did with Jesus Flores a year ago (losing Flores to the Nationals as a result). However, while teams will see Lubanski as a player that has crushed right-handed pitching for almost his entire minor league career, many will notice that he was far worse against right-handers than southpaws in both Omaha and Arizona, a disturbing trend that limits Lubanski’s value.

Outside of Lubanski, I don’t expect any Arizona Fall League hitters to be drafted; there is no Dan Uggla in this year’s class. However, teams with everyday catchers could do worse for backups than Raul Padron and Chris Gimenez. Padron hit .320/.404/.460 in a short AFL trial, posting solid offensive numbers for the first time in his career. However, he does have some juice in his left-handed bat, and he threw out 40 percent of opposing baserunners in both the California League and AFL. Gimenez has a better offensive history, as he’s patient and pretty powerful despite striking out too much. He’s also a far worse defensive player than Padron, so a team would have to be pretty confident in the bat with just 30 games of experience above A-ball to draft him.