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May 8, 2008

Prospectus Today

Applied Knowledge

by Joe Sheehan

On April 20, before their game with the Detroit Tigers, the Toronto Blue Jays released veteran designated hitter Frank Thomas. Just two days prior, Jays manager John Gibbons had announced that Thomas’ playing time would be reduced, which inspired a petulant reaction by Thomas. All this occurred against a backdrop of Thomas needing about 300 additional plate appearances to vest a 2009 contract option. Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi was insistent that the decision was about Thomas’ performance and the team’s expectation that he would not improve upon it, rather than the potential commitment, a case that was hard to take seriously when Rod Barajas and Robinzon Diaz occupied the Jays’ DH slot over the next few days.

How has it all worked out? Well, let’s look at some numbers. Through April 19, the Blue Jays were 9-9 and had scored 89 runs; since then, they’ve gone 8-9 while scoring 55, nearly two runs per game less. The Jays have gotten some amazing pitching and defense in their last 17 games, allowing just 51 runs in that span, including a seven-game stretch in which they allowed no more than three runs in any game. The problem is that they went 4-3 in those games, because they couldn’t score.

Do they miss Thomas? His at-bats have gone to a mix of players, including the aforementioned Barajas and Diaz, but largely to Shannon Stewart and Adam Lind. While Matt Stairs has gotten most of the starts at DH, it is my contention that Stairs could have played even had Thomas not been released, taking Stewart’s time in left field. The argument that Stewart should play for his glove is unacceptable—he has the one of the worst arms in the game and can’t outrun his misreads any longer.

Here is what the three primary replacements for Thomas have done since April 20:

Player    PA   AVG   OBP   SLG
Stewart   47  .256  .319  .326
Stairs    57  .264  .316  .491
Lind      20  .053  .100  .053

Now, Adam Lind needs to play and play often, but the Jays haven’t done that. He played four straight games after his call-up, went 1-for-13, and played just twice in the seven games that followed, being sent down Wednesday in a roster crunch. It’s yet another example of the team obsessing and then panicking over short-term performance as they flit wildly from one idea to the next. Shannon Stewart is playing terribly, but the Jays continue to run him out there rather than play the more talented Lind.