Printer-friendly

Contact Author

June 3, 2008

Future Shock

The Top 50 Talents

by Kevin Goldstein

To be as clear as possible, this is not a prediction of how the players will be selected or any type of mock draft--you’ll see that tomorrow. Instead, this is a ranking of talent in a similar vein of my off-season team-by-team rankings, based on the combination of ultimate ceiling and the chances to reach it.

1. Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
What He Is: That up-the-middle player who offers the best combination of tools and potential in the draft.
What He’s Not: A guy who grades out as well as the Upton brothers did, so let’s end those comps here and now.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: An All-Star shortstop who hits 20 home runs, steals 40 bases, and plays above-average defense
Backup Plan: Center field
Open Issues: Arguments remain over his ability to stay at shortstop--the athleticism is there, but his fundamentals are shaky--and ultimate power ceiling.

2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
What He Is: The most advanced hitter in the draft in terms of approach, bat speed, and power.
What He’s Not: A guy who performed especially well this year while dealing with a hand injury.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: Scott Rolen without the glove work.
Backup Plan: It’s pretty much middle-of-the-order hitter or bust.
Open Issues: Alvarez’ first-class track record means people aren’t concerned about the disappointing ’08 showing, but a decent-sized minority wonders if he can stay at third.

3. Buster Posey, C, Florida State
What He Is: An incredibly athletic catcher with a patient approach, decent power, and top-notch defensive potential.
What He’s Not: A true impact player.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A Gold Glove catcher who hits .270-.290 with 15-20 home runs and 75 walks.
Backup Plan: He's one of the safest picks around, so you don’t really need one, but he’s a pretty good infielder as well.
Open Issues: He's still new to catching, so while he has the potential to be great, he’s not there yet. His ultimate power ceiling ranges from just average to well-above, depending on who you talk to.

4. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
What He Is: A big, power-hitting first baseman who has the defensive skills and plate coverage to avoid being cast as a one-dimensional slugger.
What He’s Not: A guy who shows you a ton of effort every time out.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A switch-hitting Justin Morneau.
Backup Plan: A switch-hitting first baseman that is something less than Justin Morneau.
Open Issues: Big league attitude, or bad attitude? The power is real, but his swing will need some adjustments to wood.