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June 3, 2008

Transaction of the Day

Pedro!

by Christina Kahrl

NEW YORK METS Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Optioned RHP Carlos Muniz to New Orleans (Triple-A); activated RHP Pedro Martinez from the 15-day DL. [6/2]

As a cure for what ails them, Pedro isn't exactly a solution, but it is a start, both literally (tonight) and operationally. He bumps Claudio Vargas to long relief, which is fine as a one-for-one swap—Vargas is really no better than a patch to get a team over an injury, or a fifth starter in a strong rotation, and in the Mets' case, it's very much the former, not the latter. That might sound harsh considering he gave them a 4.50 ERA in four starts, but keep in mind what that boils down to. Vargas gave the Mets quality starts against two lousy lineups (the Rockies and Nats) and got knocked around a bit by the Dodgers and Braves, or exactly what you might expect from someone who has drifted from one fifth man's gig to the next. That's somebody you might understandably prefer to Nelson Figueroa (human interest angle aside), but it's somebody you tolerate or replace, not part of what you build around, and not part of a rotation that's going to propel you back into a crowded race in the NL East when you're .500 two months in and need to make up ground.

Instead the issue with the Mets' rotation is much, much more systematic, which is why some might question whether or not Vargas was the guy who needs bumping. Oliver Perez's command problems have to be wearing thin—it's a lot more fun to talk about Tommy Byrne's ability to give Casey Stengel ulcers, and a lot less fun to experience that sort of thing firsthand. He's given a club that doesn't have a workhorse just three quality starts in his dozen. He's an interesting affectation, a potentially brilliant retreading project, and something less than a reliable commodity; for better or for worse, pitching coach Rick Peterson's Q factor is down, and turning Perez into an ace lefty would do wonders for Peterson's reputation, wherever the blame may lie for why Scott Kazmir's a Ray.

Beyond the potential upside that Perez represents on the basis of last season or 2004, there comes a point where a win-now team has to decide whether or not it can really rely on a guy for something more than the occasionally neato strikeout total; nobody loves a Three True Outcomes pitcher when he's heavy on the two categories you'd rather he wasn't. Consider the leaders among moundsmen in Three True Outcomes Percentage (TTO%), an admittedly freaky member of our statistical menagerie (minimum 200 batters faced):

Pitcher            BF   BB    K   HR    TTO%
Edinson Volquez   283   36   83    3    43.1
Chad Billingsley  285   34   71    3    37.9
Chris Young       237   30   51    8    37.6
Oliver Perez      277   43   50   11    37.5
Jonathan Sanchez  303   36   71    6    37.3
Josh Beckett      273   14   75   11    36.6
Jake Peavy        237   20   60    6    36.3
Tim Lincecum      320   32   78    3    35.3
Daisuke Matsuzaka 275   38   55    4    35.3
Erik Bedard       224   23   48    8    35.3