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July 2, 2008

Prospectus Today

Rays of Enlightenment

by Joe Sheehan

The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball. Even the most optimistic projections for the Rays didn’t see this kind of performance coming. Nate Silver’s PECOTA projections had them at 88-74, third in the AL East behind the usual suspects. Instead, the Rays have ridden a nearly unprecedented turnaround in run prevention to a 51-32 mark, a 2½–game lead over the Red Sox, and 7½ over the Yankees.

Coming into this season, I saw the Rays as an improving team, but was less optimistic about their immediate future than most of my BP colleagues. My idea was that, having allowed 944 runs last season, there was little chance the Rays could lop off enough runs off of that mark in one season to justify the number of wins being projected. I had them allowing 850 runs, and even if you consider that I wildly overprojected the league offensive level, that’s way off. In the 162-game era, just two teams have ever allowed 250 fewer runs from one year to the next, just 15 have ever allowed 200 fewer. The Rays are on pace to allow 648 runs, 296 fewer than they did in '07. That would the second-highest mark in the 162-game era, behind only the 1997 Tigers.

Could we have seen this coming? Clearly the Rays’ improvement on defense was planned, and was evident even in the second half of last season. However, anyone who could see a team that had the worst defense on record becoming one of the best defensive teams in baseball is a better man—or machine—than I. BP’s William Burke did some digging and found that the Rays’ first-half total of 324 runs allowed was a rare feat among teams that had allowed 900 runs in the previous season:

Year Team         RA81
1997 Orioles       297
2001 Cubs          321
2008 Rays          324
1988 Indians       369
2000 Mariners      370

Those list-leading Orioles have something in common with these Rays. That team added a defensive shortstop to the mix, signing Mike Bordick and moving Cal Ripken to third base in an effort to improve the defense. They also replaced Bobby Bonilla in the outfield with B.J. Surhoff, a move that helped the defense. Finally, they saw a dramatic decrease in home runs allowed, from 209 (ninth in AL) in '96 to 164 (third in AL) in '97.

Most of those elements are in place for Tampa today. Trading for Jason Bartlett created a significant defensive upgrade at shortstop. The presence of Evan Longoria caused the team to move Akinori Iwamura to second base; Longoria has been about as good as Iwamura was at third, and Iwamura has been much better than the second basemen the Rays used last year. The Rays’ outfield defense has been improved by last year’s decision to make B.J. Upton a center fielder, and while right field has been a mix of journeymen and the team’s weak spot on defense, it’s not hurting them much.