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August 21, 2008

Prospectus Hit and Run

Red Sox Rotation Frenzy

by Jay Jaffe

I don't live in New England, so I don't know the answer to this for certain. Perhaps someone in the sizable contingent of Red Sox fans amid our readership can tell me: has Justin Masterson started appearing on milk cartons yet?

I ask because Masterson has been the forgotten man on the Red Sox staff, the red-headed stepchild to fellow rookie Clay Buchholz's golden boy. Whether patching the rotation in the wake of an injury, temporarily nudging the struggling Buchholz out of the picture, or simply filling a higher-leverage relief role, Masterson could be occupying a more prominent position than the Beantown equivalent of the Jay Witasick Memorial Rumble Seat on a team that could clearly use the help. Despite going 12-6 to begin August, the Sox have lost a game and a half in the standings to the AL East-leading Rays while preserving just a half-game lead over the Twins in the wild card race. Their post-season odds have edged upwards from 76 to 84 percent in that timespan, a function of their scoring rates, but even with the Yankees apparently vanquished, the Red Sox suddenly look vulnerable.

For those of you who haven't been paying attention, Buchholz came into this year heralded as the top pitcher and overall second-best prospect on our Top 100 Prospects list, having thrown a no-hitter in just his second major league start last September 1. After a solid start to this season (3.71 ERA and three quality starts out of six through May 2), he was severely pounded twice, and then sent to Triple-A Pawtucket for two months. Since returning on July 11, he has failed to make a quality start in seven attempts and has been bombed for an 8.29 ERA; on Wednesday night, he couldn't even get out of the third inning against the Orioles, squandering a 4-0 lead and dropping to 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA. Those who have seen more of him than I have say there's nothing physically wrong with the 24-year-old; instead his problems are mental, mechanical, and/or tactical. He's not getting ahead of hitters, he's not throwing his highly-regarded changeup enough, and opposing hitters are dishing out Cream of Whoop-Ass every time he takes the hill. Yet the Sox keep sending him out there.

As for Masterston, the 6-foot-6, 23-year-old rookie came into the year rated by Kevin Goldstein as the third-best prospect in the Red Sox organization behind Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury, and 53^rd overall in our Top 100. He's a four-star prospect with a heavy sinker that Goldstein suggested before the season was "arguably the best in all of the minor leagues." His second pitch is a slider that Masterson occasionally has trouble staying on top of because of his low three-quarter arm angle, and his changeup is a work in progress.

Masterson began the year at Double-A Portland, commuting to Boston to make a pair of spot starts in April and May in which he pitched quite well. Following his second start on May 24, the Red Sox sent him to Triple-A Pawtucket, but he was summoned back to Boston after just one turn once Daisuke Matsuzaka went on the DL with a rotator cuff strain. He held is own in a solid month in the rotation, putting up a 3.67 ERA through his first nine starts (including the cameos) while averaging six innings per start. To be fair, his peripherals were hardly sterling (6.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9), with his home-run rate particularly high given his ground-ball-oriented approach, the consequence of too many sliders that didn't slide. An unsustainably low .216 BABIP kept things in check; Masterson's 5.23 FIP as a starter is a more accurate measure of his performance to that point.