Future Shock: Tuesday ... (09/02)
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September 2, 2008 Prospectus TodayAnother Rocktober to Remember?
A year ago today, the Colorado Rockies were six games out in the NL West, an identical amount behind in the wild-card race, and that was with the seventh-best overall record in the NL. They would go on to close the season on a 21-7 run, capped by a one-game-playoff victory over the Padres, then win their first seven postseason games before being swept out of the World Series by the Red Sox. Today, the Rockies are six games out in the NL West, but little else is the same. While last year’s team had a winning record and a positive run differential at this point, this year’s squad is 65-74, and -53 in run differential, the 11th-best mark in the league. Last year’s team could target both the wild card and the division; this year’s squad has no chance to win the wild card. Last year’s team played fantastic defense, which made up for a pitching staff—and especially a rotation—that didn’t strike out many batters. This year’s team doesn’t get to nearly as many balls in play. That the 2008 Rockies nevertheless find themselves in something like the same place as the 2007 team did has as much to do with the competition as any other factor. The Diamondbacks, despite having two of the top five starters in the league and an impressive array of young hitters, have been unable to climb much above .500, and in fact are just 43-52 since the middle of May. The Dodgers, also loaded with young talent and having added Manny Ramirez to the mix, are under .500. It’s this environment that allows a team that would be dead and buried in the other five divisions to have life. The Rockies are probably not as bad as their record indicates. Missing Troy Tulowitzki for much of the first half hamstrung them badly, and Tulowitzki’s brutal performance at the plate when he was available was a key reason why the Rockies were seen as a seller at the trade deadline. The Rockies are 36-38 when Tulo starts, as opposed to 29-36 when he doesn’t. They’re 22-17 with him since he returned from the DL on July 21, a stretch in which he’s batted .333/.392/.447. More importantly, his defense has improved a shaky infield that often includes two guys playing out of position. Since his return, the Rockies have allowed 4.79 runs per game, nearly 10 percent less than their 5.16 RA prior to July 21. With Tulowitzki, it’s fair to say that the Rockies are a .500 team, maybe slightly better. Being a .500 team won’t get it done over the next four weeks, not with needing to catch two teams and being six out. Of course, we know that a .500 team can have a .700 stretch, and we even know that the Rockies—who are fairly similar now to what they were a year ago—have that kind of kick in them. To catch the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, they will need to improve on a handful of areas, however. First, Willy Taveras has to perform better. Stealing 65 bases at a 90 percent success rate and playing excellent defense in center field are good things, but making an out in 69 percent of your plate appearances swallows all of that value up. Taveras doesn’t need to be Jose Reyes; he just needs to bump his OBP to .330 or .340 for a month, because Clint Hurdle doesn’t seem inclined to bat him outside of the top two lineup spots when he plays. The combination of Taveras (.312 OBP) and Clint Barmes (.323) cripples an offense that actually has a very productive middle.
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One point - any notion that Willy Taveras would be an asset over the last month if he posted a .330 OPB but would not be an asset at .310 is absurb. Over the course of a single month, the difference is less than 3 times reached base.
There are, of course, reasonable arguments as to Taveras's effectiveness (or non-effectiveness) as a player. But the notion that there's any meaningful difference over the course of a month between a .330 and a .310 OPB player fails.
Fair point, JJ, and one I've made myself in the past. Taveras does need to be on base more for the Rockies' offense to work, for some values of "more." .020 of OBP is variance, not a change in ability or performance.
Acres, I'm not convinced Spilborghs hits righties well enough to justify that role, as this is the first year in which he's touched them up at all. Then again, it may be worth finding out, and pushing Taveras into the role as Brad Hawpe's legs.
I'd probably settle for leading off Ian Stewart and dropping Taveras to eighth, but Clint Hurdle doesn't play that way.