You Could Look It Up: ... (09/09)
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September 9, 2008 Prospectus TodayRays Relevance
Well, it's come to this. After a decade of futility, of never being in contention for .500, much less a division title or playoff spot, the Tampa Bay Rays are now experiencing something heretofore known only to franchises that have had some success: backlash. With their lead in the AL East—just roll that around in your mind for a little bit, here on the afternoon of September 9th—down to a half-game following Monday's loss to the Red Sox, there is a sense of panic among the media covering the team. I wouldn't say it's there among the fans, and I wouldn't put it on the players, but for want of a story, the story is now "the Rays are falling apart." Let me try and calm the waters a bit. The Rays have dropped six of their seven September games…on the heels of a 21-7 August in which they mostly played without their third baseman and left fielder. Over any period of time that isn't "the last week," the Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball, and that they're in a virtual tie for first place with the best team in their league, one that has twice the run differential and five times the payroll, is something to celebrate, not bitch about. Declaring the Rays to be in some kind of trouble based on the past week flies in the face of everything we know about baseball. As I wrote yesterday, you simply cannot reach conclusions about players or teams based on seven games of play. This game is harder than that. Unlike the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, though, the Rays have something else going for them that makes the panic even sillier: the Rays are basically in the postseason already, and playing solely for seeding. See, these aren't the standings that matter: Rays 85 57 .599 — Red Sox 85 58 .594 .5 These are:
Div WC
Rays 85 57 .599 --- ---
Red Sox 85 58 .594 --- .5
White Sox 80 62 .563 --- 5
Twins 78 65 .545 2.5 7.5
Blue Jays 76 66 .535 4 9
Yankees 76 68 .528 5 10
Loosely speaking, the top three teams on that list will make the postseason, with the caveat that either the White Sox or the Twins have to make it even if there are three or four AL East teams in front of them. If the Red Sox catch the Rays—and remember, they have the better team and the more favorable schedule, so they should catch the Rays—that's not a problem. The Rays' lead isn't a half-game over the Red Sox; it's 7˝ games over the Twins. A 7˝-game lead with 20 to play isn't insurmountable, but it's close enough to be mistaken for it at the corner bar. That's why the chance the Rays don't make the postseason amounts to a rounding error—0.6 percent, or three chances out of 500.
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
I would guess that some writers are also sad that they won't get to pen "Worst To First" articles lauding the Rays for "outsmarting" the Red Sox and Yankees...