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October 7, 2008 Prospectus TodayClosing Out and Waiting Around
The four teams that advanced to the League Championship Series are probably the top two teams in the AL, and two of the top three playoff teams in the NL. We can debate the Dodgers; relative standing in the NL as a whole, complicated by the fact that their playoff lineup is nothing like anything they used during the season, but I don't think anyone would argue that they're a better team than the Brewers at the moment. They all won their Division Series in a similar fashion: run prevention. No winning team allowed more than five runs in any DS game, or more than 13 runs in the series. On the whole, the teams advancing allowed 41 runs in 15 games, 2.7 per contest. Only the Dodgers were particularly impressive at the plate, although the Rays and Red Sox each had their moments. It was pitching and defense—I got five years older just typing that—that made the difference for the winning teams. They kept their opponents in the park, allowing just eight home runs in the 15 games. They didn't walk people, just 41, or 2.7 per game, and they had nearly a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. On offense, they played big ball. In fact, the Division Series round validated the idea that you win post-season games not by scratching out a single run using small-ball tactics, but by using short-sequence offenses—power—to score, and by putting up crooked numbers. The team hitting more home runs in a game went 12-1 in the Division Series. In all seven NLDS games, and nine of 15 overall, the winning team scored more runs in a single inning than the loser did all game long. Prevent home runs, hit them yourselves. That may not be a sauce, but it's a pretty good dry rub. By the way, when did the Division Series start to suck? For all the excitement we had in the early days of its existence, the round has started to leave baseball fans with way too much time on their hands in the second week of October. We had three over the minimum 12 games this season, which is a marathon compared to the 13—just one over the minimum!—we saw last year. There hasn't been a Game Five in the Division Series since 2005, and there haven't been two in one year since 2003.
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I'm a little disappointed. I hoped for some discussion of Scioscia's choice to try a suicide squeeze play when even the TBS announcers saw it coming from a mile away.
I think the squeeze was a good call. The guys at Lookout Landing went through the win expentancy math based on Aybar's skill at bunting and the guys due up next.
The squeeze didn't fail because the Red Sox predicted it. The squeeze failed because Aybar missed his bunt.