Every Given Sunday: Se... (11/16)
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November 16, 2008 Prospectus TodayTrading Up and Trading Down
This is becoming a trend. For the third highly notable time in five months, a trade has happened in which one team has acquired a player who comes with some risk, with that risk being mitigated by the low price they paid for the player. Or, to exaggerate the point slightly, they got something for nothing. In July, the Cubs acquired Rich Harden for a price so low—three middling prospects and a 2007 draft pick failing in Low-A—that they had to pull the trigger despite Harden's sensitivity to light and air. Last week, the A's paid a price for Matt Holliday that will make sense even if Holliday leaves at the end of next season, or even if he retires in mid-August. Now the Yankees have acquired Nick Swisher while giving up nothing that they'll miss: Jeff Marquez, a 24-year-old finesse pitcher who has yet to succeed at Triple-A; Wilson Betemit, a longtime stathead favorite with a .260/.325/.437 career line and a 314/98 K/BB ratio; and Jhonny Nunez, a 22-year-old right-hander who could eventually end up as a high-leverage reliever. Then again, Nunez was traded for Alberto Gonzalez—no, the other one—about 15 minutes ago, which speaks against the idea that he's about to go all Carlos Marmol on the world. The package, in toto, is nothing; you can make a case for each of the players individually, but you can't make the three of them add up to a switch-hitter with plate discipline, power, and his peak in front of him. The White Sox can fit all three of these pieces in, but they've traded a five for three singles to do so. Betemit can play third base in a platoon situation, perhaps with Josh Fields, which would look a bit like a two-toned switch-hitting Jim Presley. Given the success they've had with John Danks and Gavin Floyd, I'm sure they look at Marquez and think "well, we'll get him to cut everything" and make him a league-average starter. And Nunez has to look good to a team that was down to two effective relievers by season's end. Of course, the White Sox put a Double-A arm into the deal as well, Kanekoa Texeira, more or less canceling Nunez's presence. The problem is that you could add these kinds of parts without trading the player who, in the worst year of his life, was sixth on your team in OBP and projected to be second in 2008. Kenny Williams, who has made a long string of very good decisions, appears to have made a mistake here by trading low on an asset. Swisher may not be the perfect solution to the Yankees' offensive woes, but he brings upside, a plate approach that they missed last year, and positional flexibility that leaves a range of off-season options open to them. His lost 2008 season—hitting just .219/.332/.410, for a career-low .259 EqA—was largely the product of a down year on balls in play. He hit .249 on them, after marks of .301 in 2007 and .283 in 2006. There was a slight uptick in his strikeout rate, but nothing alarming. What's missing from his season are 15 singles and 15 doubles, and there's not much reason to believe those won't come back in 2009. When they do, his contract, which pays him $21 million through 2011 with a $10 million option for '12, is going to look like an absolute bargain. I got an e-mail from a friend who said that I wouldn't like the deal because it meant the Yankees now wouldn't need Mark Teixeira. That's not the case at all. The Yankees didn't have a right fielder or a first baseman before this trade, nor an actual center fielder. Swisher can play right or center, and while he's not great defensively at the latter, Melky Cabrera is still around to play good defense for him late in games. At the moment, the Yankees have Swisher, Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Xavier Nady, and Brett Gardner lying around. That looks to me like a team that can still bring in one of the best first basemen in baseball and fit everything in around him. (Aside: Xavier Nady is not an everyday player, and efforts to make him one will result in a lesser lineup against right-handed pitching. It was a career year built on a balls-in-play spike over four months in Pittsburgh, and should be treated as such. What he hit as a Yankee—.268/.320/.474—is what he is.)
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
But ... but ... K-Rod had 62 SAVES!!!
/BBRAA'd
I know, I know, everyone loves to hate on K-Rod these days, at least when it comes to discussing the merits of the free agents in this current class. For what its worth, his agent swears that he still has his fastball, but that he prefers to pitch in the low 90's in order to set up his change-up. It could just be agent-speak--and to be honest, I don't watch the Angels often enough to know if there's some merit to it or if it's complete horse puckey.* But I'd take a dip in the K line of his stats if it meant making him a more effective pitcher (and if it meant dropping the derivative nickname too, so much the better).
*: Of course, if there's someone on this board who watches the Angels regularly and has a better read of the situation than I would, it would be greatly appreciated. Especially since my team, the Mets, is looking like the front-runner for Mr. Rod's services at the moment...