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November 19, 2008 Prospectus TodayThe Tool of Ignoranceby Joe Sheehan
On Tuesday afternoon, the Baseball Reporters Association of America announced that Dustin Pedroia had won its American League Most Valuable Player award, the last of the BBRAA's eight awards for the 2008 season. Before we go any further, let me make this point: "Reporters" and "BBRAA" are not terms of derision, but rather of description. Last winter, when deciding who to admit and not admit to its ranks, the organization drew a line that made it clear that it was an organization of reporters, and that it existed to facilitate access to parks and personnel, to ensure that those people for whom that access is important had an advocacy group. Now, in practice, it looks a little bit different. You can be a beat reporter and not be allowed to be a member, as the talented staff of MLB.com knows too well. You can also be an editor, or cartoonist, or general columnist, or statistician, or a guy who once wrote about baseball, or one who does so as often as I write about NASCAR, and have a card. The standards for members once they're inside the group seem to involve the ability to grow fingernails, while the standard for new members now involves a number of tests that may continue to evolve, but which have less to do with baseball writing and more to do with baseball quote-gathering. There's nothing inherently wrong with this; the organization can admit anyone it wants to based on the criteria that it defines. What it cannot do, however, is lay claim to the word "writer." You can be a professional baseball writer while defining your job in a way that doesn't involve passing on the banalities of ballplayers, or running sourceless rumors, or doing soft-focus features that make it easier to get those banalities and rumors. The job of being a baseball writer is not so limited in the year 2008 as to exclude many people for whom access to parks may well enhance their ability to do their job, but who, even if it doesn't, nevertheless should be brought under the organization's umbrella. The informed-outsider position is in some ways superior, and in some ways inferior, to the insider one, but it is no less qualified for its status as "new." Until all professional baseball writers (where "professional" meets reasonable objective standards) are invited into the club, and until the standard for inclusion is something other than "do you take down quotes," I reserve the right to call the organization what it has aggressively defined itself as: the Baseball Reporters Association of America. I do so not to be snarky or insulting, but to make the point that the group aggressively excludes baseball writers for whom reporting is not a central or even tertiary part of their job description, but who nonetheless meet every other possible standard for inclusion.
BP Comment Quick Links Terry (36772) Seriously, this is unbelievable work. You hang reporters by their own words and thought processes, once again proving that reasoned factual analysis trumps all. Anyone that can't plainly see what is wrong with award voting and baseball reporting today through this article will never be able to do so. The column was captivating, poignant, and revealing. Keep preaching, Joe. misterdelaware (31209) Good stuff, Joe. cwc (477) Just when I thought the BBWAA was beginning to join the 21st Century, Joe reveals that they are still living in 1968. Well done, Joe. cdamon (1844) I liked the article and agree with most of it, but ... josher464 (6533) I think that one of the problems with understanding pitching wins in MSM is that people don't seem to distinguish between "wins" the things that teams collect to determine who is better than who and "wins" the pitching statistic that attempts (and fails) to measure pitching value. Yay language ! As long as people continue to confuse the two, that's gonna be an issue. cwc (477) As someone who has worked in the public health domain, the abbreviation 'MSM' refers to "Men who have sex with men," and is used in discussions of STD epidemiology. I know it means mainstream media here, but it always catches me off guard when I see it. Dr. Dave (1652) This is why, when talking about pitching stats, I always say "Ws" (dubyas). I reserve the word 'wins' for what teams do. imataqito (23174) Hey Joe, there's an entry in MLB trade rumors that you're leaving. Say it ain't so! Adrian (23655) Excellent stuff, Joe. I thoroughly enjoyed your systematic deconstruction and breakdown of all eight awards. Jay Taylor (38322) My personal favorite part of the voting this year is that, by WARP, Ryan Howard was the ninth best player...on the Phillies. jeffbarton (1248) "Stolen bases, home runs, RBI... these shiny things just aren't going away"... ostrowj1 (8095) Maybe, but maybe it has the opposite effect. It doesn't take to many years of playing to figure out that RBI's and wins are as much a part of the team around a player than the player himself. jwdinnin (8318) Here's something that wasn't addressed in the article: CC Sabathia finished ahead of all other pitchers in NL MVP voting, but finished 5th in Cy Young voting. WCE (7237) Nice to see Lance Berkman didn't even make the top ten of that voter's list. Sigh. What does a Big Puma have to do to get love? Aaron/YYZ (34268) One of the things I find most disheartening about the poor job the voters do with single-season awards, is how the results from these awards are then heavily leaned on as evidence for a large number of other avenues such as arbitration and eventually Hall of Fame discussions. When we're 15 years removed from this season, will voters hold up Joe Mauer's or Chase Utley's lack of an MVP award and/or poor showing in the voting as evidence to deny them entry into Cooperstown? BP staff (17) This is possibly the biggest reason I still care as much as I do, because this is now the historical record. Bill James has written that the awards voting shows how contemporaries viewed a situation, and because of that, it has value. Nov 20, 2008 06:41 AM Richie (27368) Your view is pretty ridiculous in some cases too, Joe. Mine also. And Bill James'. Camp WitRios (37162) Jay Taylor: "My personal favorite part of the voting this year is that, by WARP, Ryan Howard was the ninth best player...on the Phillies." diperna (1401) One of your best columns, Joe. Right up there with this column and any number of others: diperna (1401) It seems, Joe, that you've made a conscious decision to Name Names in this column, moreso than in the past. Whether that's because the BBWAA slammed its doors to worthy writers, or for some other reason, this is a trend that I hope continues for Baseball Prospectus. TCHaag (30903) I agree completely. Someone needs to hold these people accountable for their sheer stupidity, and BP is doing a great job to contributing to fighting the good fight. eighteen (1432) The BBRAA and MSM cater to the "average" fan, who's never even heard of VORP or WARP. Awards travesties will continue until those fans actually know something about the game and won't accept the slop they're currently getting. Progress in that regard may seem slow, but the comments to this article prove awareness is a quantum leap ahead of where it was 10 years ago. Those of us who know and love the game are fortunate to have BP and others leading the charge; but we, too, need to spread the gospel. straightoutofhxc (38089) Excellent point. Agreed completely. And we lost a soldier with FJM shutting down :( BP staff (17) I named names because I happened to have them handy and they were somewhat germane to the story. Nov 20, 2008 06:46 AM DTrain82 (32111) Joe, great article but I was hoping you would've mentioned how Jason Bartlett (JASON BARTLETT!!!!!!!!) received a 5th place vote. This is patently insane! He wasn't even one of the top dozen players ON HIS TEAM! bheikoop (32208) Joe, diperna (1401) Joe: "...in addition to the two dozen other reasons why using wins as a criterion is galactically stupid." pimetyg (30233) Boom! I had my fist in the air reading that piece, Joe. Thanks for echoing a lot of the frustration in the whole messy enterprise. It's funny to imagine some of the voters reading each other's headlines across the country and formulating their "own" narrative. One, some writers seem to vote in a "20-sided dye" way to create their own narrative on the season, rather than the one that ACTUALLY HAPPENED. And two, there seem to regional biases in some cases, writers favouring players on the home team they saw with their free accredited badge. WCE (7237) Great article. It strikes me as this is a good direction for BP. Most of the readers are fairly convinced of efficacy and validity of the approach here. Maybe the thing to do now is work to direct the national conversation on baseball in the direction BP has been headed in all along. Not that this hasn't happened to a large part already. duncan2m (36554) Best damn piece of analytical reportage I've read in a long while. Thanks for making my day. Jmast7 (13898) While I readily endorse the preceding accolades, I'm wondering if I'm the only one who finds the column's parting shot an oversimplification. The difference in WARP between Ramirez and Teixiera is admittedly small. However, we have a much more concrete idea of what replacement level in these particular cases is. What we're really looking at is the difference between Ramirez's Wins Above Juan Pierre (WAJP) and Teixiera's Wins Above Casey Kotchman (WACK), no? ScottyB (23917) Meh. Sorry to be contrary here, but an article like this would have a bigger impact if the Baseball Writers and the BP readers who vote in the Internet Baseball Awards didn't AGREE ON EVERY SINGLE AWARD RECIPIENT THIS YEAR. eighteen (1432) Using the BBRAA's ballots, logically explain how the similarity of outcome is anything other than pure coincidence. bheikoop (32208) Also keep in mind that the WINNERS aren't the only important names on the lists. Players bonus' and contracts are reliant on even being named on an MVP ballot. Matt L. (27995) If anyone runs into Rich Campbell, of the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star, who left Ryan Howard off of his ballot altogether, buy that man a beer. ruben398 (17702) Never understood why the Cy Young is simply understood to be solely about individual achievement (even if it uses wins in its analysis), thus allowing players from non-playoff teams to win, while the MVP virtually requires the player to lead his team to the playoffs or blow away the field. I didn't think there was such a big difference between someone who is the "best" and someone who is the "most valuable". HRFastness (40670) I live in Milwaukee. ksalmon (16606) I can't see that it's blazingly obvious that Lester is better than Matsuzaka. Their PRAR, PRAA, and WARP (all 3 varieties) are nearly identical. Lester leads in a very important category for SPs, Innings (210.1 to 167.2); and his BB/9IP is much better (2.82 to 5.05); but if these were such a strong indicator of dominance, why are their WARP essentially the same? BP staff (17) The difference is 42 2/3 innings in which Lester allowed 20 runs. (Matsuzaka minus Lester.) Lester had Matsuzaka's season, then tacked on six or seven above-average starts. That's the argument for him, and it's a very strong one. Nov 20, 2008 06:36 AM ksalmon (16606) Then why doesn't Lester's WARP reflect this? If Lester is Matsuzaka with 6 or 7 additional above-average starts, surely we should see this in Wins above Replacement. Instead, Lester and Matsuzaka's WARP numbers are almost identical. Wharton93 (23153) Albert Pujols deserved the award. Scartore (4542) "The guy who listed Joey Votto ahead of Geovany Soto, well, you stay classy." BP staff (17) I'll throw something else into the mix--Votto, at least by one measure, was fantastic defensively. Longoria was a +11, in plus/minus, at third. Votto was +19 at first. The gap in downballot MVP votes can be explained pretty much entirely by team performance and a deeper field of candidates. Nov 20, 2008 06:31 AM Scartore (4542) "The real story here is that Dusty Baker gave Joey Votto a full season of PAs. I didn't see that coming, and he deserves credit for it." Steve D. (5312) Agree with Jmast. After years of electing the wrong guys, did we really expect 60 voters to suddenly see the light? This is an evolutionary process and we should be thrilled that it's gotten far enough to where the right (or reasonable) guys are winning. tdrury (12878) >>>Then why doesn't Lester's WARP reflect this? If Lester is Matsuzaka with 6 or 7 additional above-average starts, surely we should see this in Wins above Replacement. Instead, Lester and Matsuzaka's WARP numbers are almost identical. BP staff (4214) Not sure if everyone is aware of this, and without getting into calculation details, it is important to know that WARP (Clay Davenport) and VORP (Keith Woolner) were developed by different people, so they will naturally differ. Nov 21, 2008 09:29 AM BP staff (9077) I haven't dug too deeply into the numbers here but it's something I've come across before. The reason they're closer in WARP than they appear to be based on their similar ERAs across a wide disparity in innings is founded in their strikeout rates, because WARP divides credit between a pitcher and his defense. Matsuzaka's higher strikeout rate (8.5 EqK9) accords him a larger share of credit for his innings pitched than Lester's (6.6) rate does for him. Nov 21, 2008 20:37 PM Mike888 (34748) Wow, Joe! My first thought when I finished your article was that it made me view the BP website in the same light that I view fivethirtyeight.com. In other words, narrative with a shrill, biased agenda overlaying a fantastic database & set of tools that lends itself to impressive and accurate predictions by extremely intelligent people. sbnirish77 (17711) What were the chances of someone with 17HRs winning the MVP ten years ago in 1998? Tuck (667) Taking your animus toward BWAA up a notch this year, nicely done. I was wondering how you'd handle it, since this annual rite of fall had gotten so stale it was growin' mold! But wishing for 15,000 words to break down one voter's ballot... bravo. Considering they got most of the calls right, I guess you were left to attack the organization itself, or one ballot in particular. Not surprising. Not insightful or interesting, but definitely not surprising. dryice (25653) Santana over Lincecum, Volquez, Votto
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70 comments have been left for this article.
One of my favorite columns of yours ever Joe. Nice Work.