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January 8, 2009

BP Fantasy Beat

Defense and Effects

by Marc Normandin

We usually discuss pitchers individually in this space, but let's try a different approach this week, examining how the defense behind a pitcher can make or break his performance. We're going to take a look at the top five defenses from last year as measured by Defensive Efficiency, and see if anything has changed for them that will make their pitchers either more or less desirable in 2009.

The Boston Red Sox were the fifth-best team in Defensive Efficiency last year, with 69.9 percent of balls in play converted into outs. They were able to do this despite having Manny Ramirez in left field for half of the season, and both Julio Lugo (one of the worst defensive shortstops in the majors last year by both advanced and traditional defensive metrics) and Jed Lowrie (-4 FRAA at shortstop in 49 games) in the infield. They fell from the number two spot in 2007, though the difference in converted outs was just 0.5 percent.

With Manny Ramirez now gone, they'll have league-average defender Jason Bay in left field in 2009. Losing Coco Crisp, one of the better defensive center fielders around, is a blow, but with Jacoby Ellsbury sticking in center—he had +18 FRAA across all three outfield spots last year, and is capable of being better in center than Crisp—the Sox shouldn't lose anything with the leather there. Those are the only major changes to the roster, though if J.D. Drew were to go down with an injury, they lack a replacement with the same defensive chops as Ellsbury or Crisp to replace him.

Overall, the Sox look like they have a potential top five defense yet again, and many of their already draft-worthy pitchers should receive the same help they've had the past two seasons. It's also great news for someone with Brad Penny's ground-ball tendencies—leaving pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium for Fenway and the AL East is not always the best thing for your numbers.

The Oakland Athletics don't hit very well, and after trading away most of their quality starters for prospects, a great defense will be a necessity if they hope to succeed in the AL West. Justin Duchscherer posted an ERA of 2.54 (with an FIP of 3.69), with help from the fourth-best team in Defensive Efficiency resulting in a .240 batting average on balls in play. As a pitcher's park with plenty of foul territory, McAfee Coliseum reduces BABIP, and a great defense is one way to take advantage of your home field, and a way to improve your pitching staff without actually having to go out and acquire better pitchers. The question is whether or not the A's will be able to pull off that trick again on a team with even fewer known quantities in the rotation.