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April 28, 2009

BP Fantasy Beat

Slow-Start Bargains?

by Marc Normandin

April is a wonderful time to be a patient fantasy owner, as there is always someone (or someones) in your league that cannot handle the slow starts of some of their players, and eventually gives up on their early-season sluggards just a few weeks too soon. It's the perfect time for some buy-low shenanigans, as you scoop up the trash of another owner, only to plug it into your own lineup.

Dioner Navarro finally broke out last year, hitting .295/.347/.407, in part thanks to a hot start to the season. That was unusual for Navarro though, as he was a miserable hitter during the first half of 2007, and struggled prior to that in April of 2006. This year he's up to his old tricks, as he's put together a line of just .183/.197/.283 over 60 at-bats. He's swinging at more pitches outside of the zone, but overall he's more patient, with 4.0 pitches per plate appearance thus far (his highest mark since he hit 3.9 with Tampa Bay back in 2006). While swinging at more pitches outside of the zone and making less contact overall, the pitches he is making contact with aren't doing much of anything—he's hitting fly balls half of the time he puts a ball in play, but nearly one-third of those have been infield popups. Pitchers may have adjusted to him as well, as they're throwing fewer changeups and far more curveballs this year; a look at Inside Edge shows Navarro hitting .321 on changeups from right-handers (Navarro is a switch-hitter) and just .189 on curveballs from them. Things are even worse when he bats right-handed (.111/.111/.278 overall).

Given his history of picking things up late in the season and his slow start this year, chances are good that you can acquire Navarro on the cheap. Since he looks to be just an adjustment away from picking up the slack and producing more, it may not be a bad idea to buy low on this catcher, before he heats up.

J.J. Hardy had a slow start last year, struggling to hit for much power in both April and May before turning it on for the rest of the season, more than making up for his early-season issues. Owners wish he would just get with the hitting right away, but that has not been the case this year either. He's at just .175/.232/.333 over 69 plate appearances, but even with that low line there's hope that he'll rebound.

First, notice that his batting average on balls in play is just .178, and that's despite hitting line drives 14.3 percent of the time. Liners and BABIP correlate very well—in fact, if you add .120 to a hitter's line-drive rate, you get an approximation of what his BABIP should be. In Hardy's case, his BABIP should be closer to .263, which is also low, but a vast improvement over his current clip. Second, Hardy is at least still hitting for power, even with the lower batting average; he has posted an Isolated Power of .159, and has gone yard three times in April.