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July 21, 2009

Future Shock

Development Disasters

by Kevin Goldstein

At first glance, the Cubs should be an obvious player in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes. Selected by most to run away with the National League Central, they have instead been treading water this year, with a record consistently around the .500 mark week after week, yet the overall weakness in the division means they've remained within striking distance the entire time. Halladay could be the difference for any team in that division, but the dark cloud hanging over the Cubs' ownership situation and a current owner spending significant time in bankruptcy court likely prevents them from taking on the Toronto ace's contract. Still, even if everything was hunky-dory when it came to ownership, the failure of the organization in the middle years of the decide would keep the team out of contention in trade talks as it was, as the Cubs have done little to help itself when it comes to scouting and player development.

The Draft: Mistakes with Big Picks and Writing Big Checks

The Cubs' farm system is poor, especially at the upper levels. That's because from 2003-2006 the organization had some of the worst drafts around. Taking them one at at time:

• 2003: With the sixth overall selection in the draft, the Cubs took toolsy high school outfielder Ryan Harvey, who is now with Colorado's Double-A team after never progressing as expected. Nobody questioned the pick at the time, it's just one of those that don't work out... or maybe there is some fault here, but we'll get back to that in a bit. The only big leaguer they landed in the first five rounds is Jake Fox, who has become a nice bench bat, and they made a nice selection in the sixth-round with lefty Sean Marshall. The big story here is that their having an elite level pick that turned into nothing. The three players selected after Harvey? Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm, and John Danks.

• 2004: With no first-round pick, the Cubs used their second-round selection on Notre Dame righty Grant Johnson, and they gave him first-round money ($1.26 million) despite the fact that most teams had him as only a second-round talent to begin with. Rarely fully healthy, Johnson had a 4.53 ERA in the minors, and is now pitching in the independent leagues. The rest of the draft was just as big a failure, with no players making a significant impact in the big leagues, although 12^th-round pick Sean Gallagher was used to acquire Rich Harden last summer.

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