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August 10, 2009

Transaction Prospectus

Playing What-If with Rios

by Christina Kahrl


"Mine? Mine. Mine mine mine."
—Flock of (non-new wave) seagulls

Now that we're in the waiver/trade portion of the season, where teams looking to jettison expensive veterans can work out deals with claiming clubs or simply deposit those players with the claimants, we're into an interesting game of chicken. Do you claim players just to block rival teams you think might help themselves by going after the guy, with no intention of wanting him for your own team? Do you try to help yourself by grabbing high-salary players for yourself, and damn the future payroll consequences?

This can be easier with some veterans than others. When the Rays grabbed Russ Springer from the A's, he filled a specific need—he's a veteran reliever with value against right-handed hitters—who comes with minimal pain, since his deal only runs through the end of this season. In contrast, if the Red Sox had claimed Cristian Guzman (they reportedly decided against it), they'd have added an established veteran shortstop already under contract for 2010, whether they worked out a deal with the Nats, or simply had to swallow him at the Nationals' discretion.

All of that cleverness aside, the horror of claiming Alex Rios is that you might end up getting him. Taken on production alone, he's a disappointment, hitting .264/.317/.427 in his age-28 season, or right around what PECOTA would have projected as his 25th-percentile season, meaning that 75 out of 100 times, he was expected to do better than that. Evaluating him by Equivalent Average to sum up his offensive contributions, and judge him by the standard set by all corner outfielders—between right and left, they're putting up a .275 EqA this season, while Rios is producing at a .266 clip. That's decidedly ungood, and there's not a lot to suggest it's all a bad dream. The production's poor, and the price tag for adding him is already steep—as much as $2 million for the balance of this season alone.

The problem is that the expense of employing him gets so much worse from there, courtesy of the long-term deal Rios inked with the Jays in April of 2008. He's due at least $59.7 million through 2014, which PECOTA already didn't anticipate he'd come close to earning in terms of his pre-season projected production: if he'd hit his median projection this year and kept hitting it through 2014, we anticipated he'd be worth about $22 million. Even if he rebounds as much as his post-All-Star break spike suggest (he's been slugging .479 since), he's on tap for a bad year, one that will put a dent in any future expectations, but even if you write it off, it's still a player who's being massively overcompensated relative to his production in an outfield corner. Picking up that much extra cash makes for an ugly bottom line, and if the claiming club is the White Sox—the team that already added Jake Peavy's big contract at the deadline—it will be interesting to see what that means for their off-season activities, especially if keeping Jim Thome is on the agenda.

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