Kiss'Em Goodbye: Cinci... (10/04)
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October 4, 2009 Kiss'Em GoodbyeAtlanta Braves
Baseball Prospectus' Pre-season Projection: 87-75, second place The Braves look ready to make another run—but folks have been saying that for four years now. Buster Olney of ESPN.com's Take What went wrong: We saw in September how good the 2009 Braves could be. Their potential was there all along, built on Bobby Cox's strong starting pitching. But it simply took too long for Atlanta to generate consistent run support—partly because of the struggles of Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur (before he was traded), partly because Nate McLouth didn't come over in a trade from Pittsburgh until June, and partly because Chipper Jones had the worst season of his career. The future Hall of Famer is batting a mere .263, with 18 homers and 71 RBI in 142 games; he has talked about walking away from the game if he has another season like he did in 2009. Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: Atlanta needs a bopper, as that may be the one missing ingredient. For 2010, the Braves appear poised for a breakthrough season, in what Cox says will be his last year as the team's manager. They're flush with starting pitching, from Javier Vazquez to Tommy Hanson, and has some excellent young prospects expected to rise into the major leagues—outfielder Jason Heyward, most notably. A 20-year-old slugger with exceptional plate discipline, Heyward reminded his Double-A manager of Darryl Strawberry. Atlanta is expected by rival GMs to be very aggressive in its search for a right-handed hitter, whether it be a left or right fielder or a first or third baseman. "That's a team that has the pitching to run down the Phillies next year," a longtime NL scout said.
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
Does Miguel Tejada count as a "big right-handed bat" anymore?
Agreed. I thought Tejada and the Gary Sheffield suggestions were jokes - and then realized they were serious. Neither is really an "everyday" RH power kind of player the Braves will be seeking. Uggla? Unless they plan to move him to 1B, I have my doubts there as well.
And, I have to admit that while I was disappointed with the Minor pick, I'm now pulling hard for him after all the crap he's received. Maybe a #3 SP isn't considered good by these standards. But with the dearth of quality LHP in the system, if he achieves it I'm guessing it'll be more (for less bonus) than some of the "higher upside" arms will have accomplished when all is said and done.
Yeah, that's one point, but starting with a low baseline and claiming success when a player reaches it isn't any kind of winning strategy. A rotation full of #3 and 4 starters isn't going to win anything. With several potential #1 starters on the board at the 7th pick, the Braves picked the low-upside guy. That's a losing call every time, regardless of how the end results are in this specific instance.