On the Beat: A Showdow... (10/21)
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October 21, 2009 Ahead in the CountWhat Happened to Cole Hamels?
At this point in the season, most baseball fans are aware that the Phillies' Game Five starter this evening, Cole Hamels, has had far more trouble preventing runs in 2009 than he did in 2008. In 2008, Hamels seemed unhittable for much of the season and the post-season, and the Dodgers knew going into Game Five last year that they had their work cut out for them as they faced elimination, down three games to one. After knocking him around in the fifth inning of last Thursday’s series opener, the Dodgers are confident that they are up against a different pitcher than the one that stymied them for the clincher last October, as they face elimination yet again.
Many reasons have been presented for the decline of King Cole. All through last season, prognosticators warned about "the Verducci Effect" and its impact on young Hamels. The Verducci Effect states that pitchers under 25 years old who threw thirty or more innings in the past year than they threw in the year before that are particularly vulnerable to injuries in this year. From the time Hamels hurt his elbow in spring training, many have claimed that he has been playing hurt. However, despite being hit by a line drive and twisting his ankle falling off the mound in early starts, Hamels managed 31 starts during the regular season and threw 193 Hamels has maintained all season that this has been the toughest one in his career, and that he has learned the most from it. His detractors claim he is distracted by his celebrity, frequently starring in commercials and advertisements throughout the 2009 season. However, I will present an alternative view in this article: Cole Hamels has pitched just as well last year as he has this year. I know that his ERA jump appears ugly, but bear with me for a minute. At this point, most sabermetricians have learned that a pitcher’s peripheral statistics (strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground-ball rate) are far more persistent and indicative of his true skill level than his BABIP and his home runs per outfield fly ball. Both BABIP and HR/OFFB are far more vulnerable bad luck than K/PA, BB/PA and GB/BIP. Cole Hamels appears to be a victim of this as we look at these sets of numbers for 2008 and 2009. Year K/PA UBB/PA GB% FB% LD% PU% BABIP HR/OFFB 2008 .214 .050 41.1 30.3 19.0 9.6 .262 .139 2009 .206 .048 43.6 26.3 19.6 10.5 .321 .153
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
Fantastic. Took as rather bland statement that sounds a little like hand-waving ("His peripherals are the same, he's just less lucky") and really looked at it from lots of angles and supported the claim in a meaningful and persuasive way.
Thought question: if the Dodgers THINK Hamels is more hittable, is it possible that they will be more relaxed and confident at the plate, producing better RESULTS? I don't actually know how to investigate that, but it makes a fair amount of intuitive sense and would seem to agree with what small personal experience I've got. But then, I've felt "in the zone" before, too ...