Prospectus Today: Turn... (10/26)
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October 27, 2009 Kiss'Em GoodbyeLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Baseball Prospectus' Pre-season Projection: 81-81 BP was off-base on this one, as the Angels exceeded expectations again. Why? And what does the future hold? Buster Olney of ESPN.com's Take What went wrong: Six-and-a-half months of strong, inspired baseball went by the wayside when the Angels really didn't play up to their own standards in the American League Championship Series. They committed nine errors in the six-game series against the Yankees—six more than the Yankees—and veterans like Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu, who were so reliable during the season, simply stopped producing at the same level. The Angels managed to get past the Red Sox, but they still fell a couple of rungs short of where they wanted to get to on the Major League Baseball ladder. Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: The Angels have a ton of prospective free agents, including Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, and Chone Figgins. It's evident that the Angels—who have seen John Lackey start each of the last two seasons with forearm trouble—are not comfortable with the notion of giving him a nine-figure deal, so if somebody else is willing to give him an A.J. Burnett-like contract in the range of $82.5 million, well, the Angels will say goodbye. While Jered Weaver continues to improve and Scott Kazmir had moments of excellence after joining the Angels, they really don't have a lot of number one-type starting pitchers. "They've got a number two and and maybe a couple of number threes," said one rival GM, "but they don't really have that number one guy." The Angels will also have to decide whether to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero (it seems unlikely, unless he makes some serious contractual concessions to stay) and Chone Figgins (much more likely, although you couldn't blame the Angels if they fretted about his repeated October struggles). Some executives with other teams have speculated during the summer that the Angels would be the natural landing spot for Matt Holliday, but to do that, the Angels would have to take a leap of faith that Holliday's lack of production for Oakland was more about mechanics and the way he was being pitched, rather than the fact that AL pitchers might've locked in on a perceived weakness and pounded him with fastballs. One way or another, the Angels need a middle-of-the-order hitter.
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
it's time espn stops calling their talking points "analysis," because analysis in baseball has to be quantitative and seize on the important factors first. sure, errors were dramatic moments in some games, but angels faced good pitching, while didn't manage to outlast the yankees in some games. the angels didn't really choke or lose the series, they just weren't good enough.
I don't think that analysis has to be quantitative (i.e. involve statistical analysis) in order to be insightful. Qualitative analysis can quite useful (e.g. "Vlad was limping to first base every time he made contact") for figuring out the causal relationships in the question. Now, I wouldn't argue that "The Angels can't take the pressure" is analysis of either kind, but I hesitate to demand that all analysis be quantitative.
im not saying all factors are quantifiable, just demanding that quantifiable factors at least be quantified if possible. don't list a bunch of stuff without qualifying for the size of each.