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October 29, 2009

Prospectus Today

Complete Mastery

by Joe Sheehan


I can't help but think that this World Series turned, and I mean in a big way, and we missed the sign. At about 8:18 p.m. last night, after CC Sabathia had energized the Yankee Stadium crowd by pitching out of a bases-loaded jam, Cliff Lee dispensed with Derek Jeter on three pitches suitable for framing: a fastball up and over the plate that Jeter hit foul into the stands over first base, then a curve down and in that Jeter tipped foul, and finally a changeup that Jeter swung through.

In that moment, as the Phillies whipped the ball around the infield and the Yankee captain walked back to the dugout, the Series shifted. In three pitches, Lee had shown his above-average heat, his terrific curve, and his ability to get even a great hitter off balance by changing speed and eye level. We didn't know it at the time, but Lee was going to spend nine innings showcasing those three pitches. We didn't know it at the time, but the game was over.

Lee was masterful, giving up few even hard-hit balls much less anything that resembled a rally. Heck, good swings were in short supply; the Yankees took a lot of emergency hacks last night. Even the Yankees' ninth-inning death twitch, down 6-0, didn't feel like anything other than an afterthought. Lee worked a bit more than you might have expected, throwing 122 pitches, but that was in part due to the Yankees' inability to make contact; they struck out 10 times against no walks, and their only extra-base hit came was an ineffectual two-out double in the fourth.

Now, if you read yesterday's column, you could suss out that I had the Yankees winning Game One, and the Phillies taking the next three by getting great starting pitching from Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels, and Lee. If I'm right about the latter part, last night's game could be a huge swing. Even setting aside my prediction, the Phillies completely changed their narrative by beating Sabathia. Now, they get the Yankees' worst starter against them, A.J. Burnett, a right-hander who relies on his fastball and who is prone to falling behind in counts. They'll be starting Pedro Martinez, who has shown since his return in July that he can keep any lineup off balance for seven innings. The error bars on a prediction for either of these guys are wide, but the Phillies came in as the underdog, so being up 1-0 with a high-variance game in front of them for the chance to be up 2-0 with Hamels pitching at home… that's not just their path to a win; that's their path to a win in a much shorter series than anyone anticipated.

Yes, the World Series shifted last night, and while no one is writing off the Yankees, or even the possibility of a long week, the Phillies' win changed the dynamics of the Series. The parallels to 2008, in fact, are many: backed by a Chase Utley homer, Cole Hamels shut down the Rays over seven innings a year ago to put the Phillies, again playing on the road, up 1-0 over an AL opponent that was a distinct favorite. The 2009 Yankees may be better than the 2008 Rays, but if they are it's not by much, and these Phillies are also a little better.

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Checking the Numbers: ... (10/29)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Back... (10/28)
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Premium Article Prospectus Today: A Cl... (10/30)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run... (10/29)

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