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November 1, 2009

You Could Look It Up

He Should Have Picked Lee

by Steven Goldman

The present World Series has been notable for the way that both managers, facing rotations that are just a bit shorter than either would like, have struggled with the question of whether to bring back their Game One starters on short rest for Game Four. The managers tested their staffs and came to opposite conclusions: Charlie Manuel, fearful of pushing Cliff Lee too hard despite his terrific start in Game One and seeing that Joe Blanton had pitched relatively well this (and disregarding a poor track record against the Yankees), chose to wait until Game Five for Lee’s encore. Joe Girardi, despairing of losing a World Series game with the wild and rarely utilized Chad Gaudin, decided to pitch big CC Sabathia on short rest, a move that paid off in the last round of the playoffs.

Girardi’s move is wholly understandable and seems almost inevitable, while Manuel has opted for a more conservative course, especially given just how completely Lee anesthetized the Yankees in Game One. As such, I thought I would look back at the look at the last several times that a manager received a World Series Game One start so dominant that he would be tempted like a sailor on shore leave to bring that pitcher back to pitch Game Four on short rest. Manuel had opted not to push Lee, but other managers have made different decisions.

To isolate the truly great Game One starts, I utilized Bill James’ Game Scores, an old but useful system of rating the quality of a pitcher’s start by adding or deducting points based on what he does in the game, for example adding a point for each strikeout, but taking away two for each hit allowed (see the link for a complete explanation). A score above 50 is considered a quality start; in looking for greatness, I did not consider games that scored below 75. Many of the scores here are in the '80s; the best, a five-hit, 17-strikeout shutout by Bob Gibson in 1968, scored 93 (as a point of comparison, Don Larsen’s perfect game scored 94 points). Cliff Lee’s Game One start in this year's Series scored 83 points.

Cutting off the list at 75 points reduced the universe of great Game One starts to 38 games stretching from the present to the very first World Series in 1903. Space and declining relevance the further back in time we reach prohibit considering all 38 in detail. Instead, we will look in depth only at the most recent half-dozen or so occurrences, followed by a bullet-points accounting of the remaining games. Because the list is long, I will present the conclusion at the beginning rather than at the end: the payoff for bringing your best pitcher back on short rest is high. Historically, managers have not had a hard time making this choice—with a few notable exceptions, they start their best instead of going to an inferior pitcher. The fatigue factor is outweighed by the pitchers’ excellence—if the hurler started Game One of the World Series, he’s usually a pitcher of some note (there are exceptions, some of which we will encounter below)—and the benefit of skipping the fourth and fifth starters of the world. In short, lacking a convincing reason that Lee cannot be effective on short rest, Manuel should have gambled on his best arm. Proceeding in reverse order:

• Orlando Hernandez, 1999 Yankees, 79
  What he did: Allowed one hit, a solo home run to Chipper Jones, in seven innings, walking two and striking out 10 as the Yankees beat the Braves 4-1.
  Did he start Game Four on short rest? No. Manager Joe Torre used David Cone in Game Two and Andy Pettitte in Game Three, and had a 3-0 lead in the Series. Rather than pressure the always-fragile el Duque, he used his fourth starter, a pitcher who had had some success in getting strikeouts but had posted a weak 4.60 ERA. His name was Roger Clemens. He held the Braves to one run in 7 2/3 innings and the Yankees completed the World Series sweep.

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