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November 1, 2009

Prospectus Hit and Run

The Trouble With Southpaws

by Jay Jaffe

On Saturday night, Andy Pettitte and company did what no pitchers have been able to do since October 3, 2007: keep Chase Utley off base during a postseason game. For 27 consecutive games spread out across three Octobers, Utley had either collected a hit or drawn a walk, setting the table for fellow slugger Ryan Howard if he wasn't socking one out of the park himself. But in Game Three of the World Series, Pettitte and reliever Joba Chamberlain neutralized him, holding him to a 0-for-4 showing with two strikeouts.

Coming into the game, the knock on Pettitte was supposed to be that despite his left-handedness, he actually showed a reverse platoon split against lefty batters because of his unwillingness to pitch inside. However, he came in just often enough to keep the lefty trio of Utley, Howard, and Raul Ibañez—who bopped 110 of the Phillies' league-leading 224 homers this year—guessing, and by the time he departed after six innings, that trio had gone 0-for-8 with five strikeouts. Including the work of Chamberlain and Damaso Marte, they wound up 0-for-12 with seven strikeouts. The sole lefty batter to collect a hit for the Phillies was pitcher Cole Hamels, whose second-inning sacrifice bunt attempt squibbed into the no-man's-land between Pettitte and catcher Jorge Posada as they converged on the left side of the mound, which loaded the bases, enabling the Phillies to tack on two runs and stake out a 3-0 lead against the Yankees' struggling southpaw.

Back up for a moment and check out Pettitte's so-called reverse split:

         ----------vs. LHB-----------     -----------vs. RHB----------
Split    AVG/ OBP/ SLG    K %   K/BB     AVG/ OBP/ SLG    K %   K/BB
2009    .282/.321/.409   23.3   4.58    .249/.331/.386   15.7   1.48  
Career  .271/.318/.393   19.2   3.36    .270/.329/.400   16.7   2.13

Aside from the 33-point difference in batting average, the 2009 numbers aren't so convincing; because of a stellar strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties, he actually allowed a slightly lower OBP against them, and a slightly lower ISO as well. For his career, the numbers are essentially even save for fewer walks against lefties; basically, he just throws them more strikes and lets the chips fall where they may.

He certainly did so last night. His interminable 31-pitch second-inning aside, Pettitte yielded just two hits and one run—Werth's monster sixth-inning shot—in his five other frames, using just 73 pitches, and got first-pitch strikes on 12 of 19 hitters. He also, of course, helped his own cause by blooping an RBI single up the middle during Cole Hamels' fifth-inning meltdown. The Yankees' bullpen, which has been shaky of late outside of Mariano Rivera, provided scoreless innings from Chamberlain and Marte, though manager Joe Girardi's ninth-inning handling of Phil Hughes raised some eyebrows after he was given just two batters against whom he could protect a four-run lead.