On the Beat: World Ser... (11/04)
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November 4, 2009 Transaction Analysis BlogBackwater Piracy and Sabeanesque Splurges
Outrighted LHP Rich Hill and RHPs Alfredo Simon and Bob McCrory to Norfolk (Triple-A). [10/30]
BP Comment Quick Links ScottyB (23917) Christina has been touched by his noodly appendage!!! Nov 04, 2009 16:14 PM BP staff (11) I describe myself as an agnostic pastafarian if only because, as someone with a gluten allergy, I either need to appeal to his manifestations in quinoa or rice, or just settle for risotto-oriented apostasy. Nov 04, 2009 20:32 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) Christina, and I mean this as a compliment, but can I hire you to write cover letters? I could never quip that rhapsodic and that kind of prose is bound to get some kind of attention from prospective employers. Nov 04, 2009 21:51 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) The Pirates got Iwamura, a better player than Sanchez for cheaper (a middling middle reliever) and will end up paying Iwamura less too. Nov 04, 2009 17:20 PM BP staff (11) Yes, he's cheaper, and yes, he's probably going to be better, and better the stuff they got from the Giants for Chavez and one less year of adequacy than Sanchez. But that's not to say they haven't wound up with just a placeholder at second for 2010, which means holding into abeyance a judgment of the deal until we see whether they get additional value out of Iwamura. Nov 04, 2009 20:39 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) I could see them signing Iwamura to a multi-year extension to enhance his cost-control and then pawning him off to another team ala McLouth. Yes, we don't know what the Pirates will do with him eventually, but since I doubt they signed him to push the Pirates into contention, I'm betting they signed him for some interim offensive/defensive value (which increases the value of their pitching staff through improved numbers) and then will flip him over the next year. Nov 04, 2009 21:54 PM SC (27400) Iwamura could also bring some draft picks if he's not extended, unless his contract somehow prevents them from offering arbitration, thereby eliminating the opportunity for a compensation pick. Nov 05, 2009 07:43 AM BP staff (11) To be fair, it takes two to tango, and I wouldn't put it past the Rays to have seen something in Chavez (between the gun reading and the impressions his slider's made now and again) to decide he's good clay. This is the team that got more out of Grant Balfour or Troy Percival than a lot of people expected, and turned J.P. Howell into a serious asset. They are, of course, also the team that got over-excited about Joe Nelson, but that's a note struck in a minor key. Nov 05, 2009 09:42 AM Michael (736) Maybe Christina is off her game this one time or maybe I'm just cranky but don't Rich Hill's latest surgury and the possibility of Sean Rodriguez playing 2B for the Rays both merit some mention when reviewing these transactions? On the other hand, since I knew about them, I shouldn't mind that they were omitted! Nov 05, 2009 06:46 AM BP staff (11) Nah, it's a fair point re: Rodriguez, and something I touched on when they got him in the Kazmir trade. That said, they do have guys they might turn to ahead of him, and to some extent on this roster as currently constructed (and as a result of Zobrist's flexibility), Rodriguez would be battling for at-bats and a roster spot with various outfield aspirants, not least the much-ballyhooed Matt Joyce and top prospect Desmond Jennings. Much depends on what's to come with the Rays, since I doubt they'll simply let it ride this winter. But until they do make a move or two, Rodriguez is one (talented) player from within a crowd who needs a good winter and/or a good camp, and create his own opportunity. Nov 05, 2009 09:36 AM sunpar (38553) Are we sure that the Pirates are gearing up to make a run at relevancy as soon as this year? Nov 05, 2009 07:54 AM Richard Bergstrom (36532) The sheer size of the Pirates teardown implies they're shooting for 2011 or 2012. In the meantime, they're restocking their farm system with a bunch of dice rolls.. and with that many chances, someone's bound to break out. Nov 05, 2009 09:06 AM BP staff (11) It's a stretch, in no small part because nobody in that rotation's somebody about to become a top-shelf starter, but like you, I could see a best-case scenario where they get into 75-win territory in 2010 if they keep Doumit (and get 400 PA out of him), Alvarez proves ready and steps in at first, Jones doesn't go Kevin Maas on us, LaRoche and Milledge turn corners, and Ronny Cedeno sticks with the Jose Hernandez Lite act. It wouldn't be a great team with a ton of upside potential, but it would be a much more interesting one than the last lot. Nov 05, 2009 09:47 AM Chris Perry (46873) That's a lot of "if-everything-goes-perfectly's". The Astros tried that philosophy last year. Worked like a charm. Nov 05, 2009 10:34 AM Richard Bergstrom (36532) A lot would have to go perfect for the Pirates to contend in 2010, but the Astros comparison isn't quite comparable since the Astros signed a bunch of aging veterans and had a paper-thin rotation. Nov 05, 2009 10:45 AM sunpar (38553) I agree that their real ambition is to contend in 2011 or 2012, but I don't think they can time it so well as to say "we'll wait till we get to X time and then spend money." Nov 05, 2009 13:08 PM BP staff (11) Hey, like I said, "best-case." Unlike the Astros, however, I don't think the Pirates count on this as their only conceivable outcome. Nov 05, 2009 11:41 AM Chris Perry (46873) I know you weren't suggesting that you thought all of that would come true. I just felt that a sarcastic jabbing at the Astros and their sun-shines-out-our-butt philosophy was due. Nov 05, 2009 12:49 PM Chris Perry (46873) Just because they're hitting their numerological prime doesn't mean that their prime is major-league average or (with luck) above-average. I'd take Oswalt, Lilly, Carpenter, or Harang past their expiration date over any of those pitchers you mentioned in their prime. Moss has never had an "up year" at the plate, and the only currently interesting players you mentioned were McCutchen and Jones, who is due to struggle a bit when the league scouts him a little better and adjusts. If their touted prospects live up to their tout, the Pirates are still at least two or three years away from .500, much less contention. Nov 05, 2009 10:31 AM sunpar (38553) I was using their age as an indicator of regression/progression. Duke and Ohlendorf put up better than league-average production last year while Maholm and Morton were just below league average. As these guys are all entering their primes, I don't expect regression and it's probably fair to predict that they improve next year as a group. Nov 05, 2009 12:51 PM sunpar (38553) Also, I said Moss had a down year at the plate because he put up a Major League Equivalent .281 EqA in Pawtucket last year, .253 in Pittsburgh and a .265 in Boston. He regressed and put up a .237 EqA this year, but was still a 0.7 WARP1 player due to his defensive value. Nov 05, 2009 12:56 PM Chris Perry (46873) I agree that Moss is interesting, but I don't think he'd ever be confused with a major-league outfielder on a contending team. He's more fourth-or-fifth outfielder type until he can prove he's not a Quad-A player. But the Pirates really don't have better options. Nov 05, 2009 13:11 PM rweiler (21660) While I agree that The Giants overpaid for Freddy Sanchez, both in talent and dollars, by Sabean's standards, it isn't a horrible deal. It isn't $9m/year for Randy Winn, for example, who had a roughly equivalent EQA playing an outfield corner position. It also isn't like the Giants have a lot of really good options at 2nd. That said, I probably would have trotted Burriss or Matt Downs out there next year and saved the money for a down payment on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Nov 05, 2009 13:31 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) But that's the thing. The Giants could have picked up someone of Sanchez's "caliber" for less cost. Not to mention, he was injured at the time of the trade. Meanwhile, players like Julio Lugo and Jeff Baker were picked up cheaply. Nov 05, 2009 14:59 PM BP staff (11) Here we sort of get into the latest round-robin of what you'd rather have, though. I guess I'm stuck on the Sox potentially getting Teahen; I'd rather have Iwamura, even if that means leaving Beckham at third base. I'd also rather have Iwamura at his price for one year than Sanchez for his for two. Nov 05, 2009 16:11 PM
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
I wonder: If Noah Lowry is able to go at all (and accepting that there is every chance that he won't be), might he be the type to benefit from a Dave Duncan-style makeover? I don't see him as a future Brewer as much as I do a future Cardinal on a low-base, high-incentive contract that allows him to be defenestrated painlessly if he really can't pitch.
It's worth noting that it seems as if a lot of Duncan's successes with pitchers seem to be with right-handers with some sort of velocity, not lefties who struggle to dent bread when they're healthy.
Point, but remember that there are more semi-hard-throwing right-handers out there than there are soft-tossing left-handers, so it stands to reason that Dunc, or any successful pitching coach, will find more successes in the first group than the second. No Cardinals fan can look at any junk-balling lefty and not have fantasies involving John Tudor in 1985, although the game has changed some since then...