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November 6, 2009

Kiss'Em Goodbye

New York Yankees

by Baseball Prospectus


Baseball Prospectus' Pre-season Projection: 99-63, first place
Actual record: 103-59, first place

A-Rod got his first ring, while Jeter, Posada, Rivera, and Pettite got their fifth. Can they all do it again?

Buster Olney of ESPN.com's Take

What went wrong: With all the tickertape fluttering over the Yankees in their parade, it's easy to forget that they actually did have some hurdles to overcome in 2009, from Alex Rodriguez's steroid stuff and hip injury to the loss of Chien-Ming Wang to the erratic showing of Joba Chamberlain. But mostly, everything went right, with CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira doing exactly what they were hired to do and immediately lifting the team to its 27th championship. The Yankees have an excellent core of players, a farm system that continues to improve, and, with the latest title, reason to believe that their already strong revenues will grow.

Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: They will likely retain either Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon, but they have to patch and plug the back end of their rotation. Joe Girardi was heavily criticized for the rotation choices he made in the postseason, but internally, the Yankees felt they really had almost no options beyond the Big Three of Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte; Chamberlain didn't develop any consistency as a starter, and Wang and Ian Kennedy got hurt. The Yankees are expected to offer arbitration to Pettitte, and will probably again prepare both Chamberlain and Phil Hughes as possible starters next spring—but eventually, one or both will have to be locked into the rotation. Short of that, the Yankees will need to go out and get another starting pitcher, and while the Yankees really don't have any hard plans to spend big money on free agents this winter, rival teams think John Lackey will be there for the taking for the Yankees, if they are willing to commit to a deal of five years for the right-hander. No matter what they decide, the Yankees will undoubtedly go into 2010 as the favorites to repeat as World Series champions.

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: Phila... (11/06)
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Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: Phila... (11/06)
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Premium Article Transaction Analysis B... (11/06)

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