Prospectus Hit and Run... (11/05)
7 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links
| Home | Unfiltered | Articles | Newsletter | Statistics | Fantasy | Events | Radio | Glossary | Search |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 6, 2009 Kiss'Em GoodbyePhiladelphia Phillies
Baseball Prospectus' Pre-season Projection: 87-75, tied for second place The Phillies have a ton of question marks, but their core talent should keep them above water in what figures to be a highly-competitive NL East next year. Buster Olney of ESPN.com's Take What went wrong: The Phillies came within two victories of becoming the first National League team since the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds to repeat as World Series champions, so they did a whole lot of things right. Ruben Amaro Jr. adeptly traded for Cliff Lee in his first year as general manager, a move that paid off immediately (and will continue to pay off next season), and the Phillies bludgeoned teams with the best lineup in the NL. The Phillies might have won another World Series, however, if not for the struggles of two guys who lifted them to the title in 2008—Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels. Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: The Phillies have to figure out if they need help with the pitching staff. In all the reaction that followed Hamels' comment that he looked forward to the end of the season, what was lost was the fact that Hamels fully understands he needs to make adjustments—whether in his offseason preparation, or in his repertoire. He's 25 and will likely fix himself. It's not such a sure thing with Lidge, who had more blown saves last season than any closer in the majors. Because the Phillies are committed to paying Lidge $11.5 million for each of the next two seasons, the team will probably at least attempt to go into next year with Lidge penciled in as the closer—but it's possible Amaro will look to create some kind of safety net, perhaps acquiring another veteran who could serve as a set-up man but would be able to step into the role if Lidge flounders again. Either way, the Phillies are a deep and great team, and appear prepared to defend their National League title once more.
|
Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
As I wrote here (http://www.thegoodphight.com/2009/11/5/1118273/how-did-they-do-that), I doubt there have been many back to back pennant winners that saw five of their six most important pitchers from the first year really fall off in the second year thanks to injury, ineffectiveness or both. Eric notes a lot of the other problems too: Rollins never got it together (even in his "good" second half, his OBP was an awful .306), the bench mostly stunk, etc.
That they made it back to the Series anyway is a tribute to Amaro, who was vastly better than I thought he'd be, as well as the coaching staff and veteran core. The odds are always against a playoff spot let alone anything more, but with seven of eight roster spots and four of five rotation spots accounted for, and just one of those guys (Ibanez) at an age where decline is a real concern, they should be in good shape to go after it again next year.