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Depth Charts
  


Last Update: 08-09

Welcome! All Depth Charts are available to Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy subscribers. If you aren't a subscriber, the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies depth charts are free for your perusal.

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How To Use The Depth Charts

The Depth Charts are playing time-weighted projections for each player which then build up to a team projection. The result of this team projection is in the upper-left corner of each team’s depth chart. Here you’ll find the team’s projected record, runs scored, runs allowed, and triple-slash stats (AVG/OBP/SLG).

In both the position player and pitcher sections, boldfacing indicates a starting player at a position--someone who is getting at least 50% of the team's playing time at a single position for Position Players, or a projected rotation member or closer for Pitchers.

When reading the statistics, only PA and IP are broken out for each individual entry. All other batting and pitching statistics are rolled up for the entire year. For example, a bench player could have playing time at different positions - e.g. a fourth outfielder is slated to get 130 PA in LF and 170 PA in RF. For all other statistics besides PT% and PA, the numbers next to each entry in LF and RF will be his aggregate statistics for the 300 PA. This works similarly for pitchers who both start and relieve.

The “Order” column is the spot in the lineup where the position player is expected to hit.

Click here to see the Philadelphia Phillies Position Players section.

American League, ranked by projected 2009 record

East W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
24 New York Yankees 97 65 988 789 .283 .360 .469
46 Boston Red Sox 94 68 887 710 .271 .349 .445
17 Tampa Bay Rays 89 73 880 800 .260 .346 .439
17 Toronto Blue Jays 76 86 779 823 .261 .327 .419
19 Baltimore Orioles 69 93 830 894 .271 .336 .433
Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
8 Chicago White Sox 86 76 849 756 .266 .331 .437
10 Detroit Tigers 82 80 818 837 .264 .331 .431
16 Minnesota Twins 81 81 819 835 .270 .336 .415
7 Cleveland Indians 71 91 811 844 .260 .337 .422
12 Kansas City Royals 69 93 786 791 .265 .320 .410
West W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
10 Los Angeles Angels 93 69 870 829 .276 .340 .433
12 Texas Rangers 86 76 837 875 .262 .326 .437
7 Seattle Mariners 78 84 731 859 .261 .320 .406
25 Oakland Athletics 71 91 755 855 .252 .322 .388

National League, ranked by projected 2009 record

East W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
8 Philadelphia Phillies 90 72 805 710 .257 .330 .433
24 Atlanta Braves 88 74 815 666 .269 .341 .427
8 Florida Marlins 83 79 784 757 .258 .333 .419
14 New York Mets 77 85 752 750 .254 .328 .389
18 Washington Nationals 59 103 764 830 .258 .331 .409
Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
6 St. Louis Cardinals 92 70 799 724 .262 .336 .426
9 Chicago Cubs 88 74 782 752 .257 .334 .426
8 Milwaukee Brewers 80 82 754 794 .257 .329 .416
5 Houston Astros 78 84 717 774 .260 .321 .401
12 Cincinnati Reds 70 92 716 815 .248 .316 .398
7 Pittsburgh Pirates 65 97 644 864 .241 .306 .381
West W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
20 Los Angeles Dodgers 96 66 823 777 .269 .344 .413
8 Colorado Rockies 89 73 806 765 .258 .338 .433
9 San Francisco Giants 86 76 714 727 .263 .313 .403
9 Arizona Diamondbacks 77 85 746 730 .250 .325 .412
14 San Diego Padres 66 96 621 746 .237 .307 .372


48 comments have been left for this report.

BP Comment Quick Links

dankingdc
(10021)

Clay,

How do you allocate unearned runs?

Based on the depth charts, the Rays are projected to allow 690 earned runs in 1460 innings. On the summary page, they are expected to allow 728 runs, which implies 38 unearned runs.

Doing the same calcs for the Orioles, they are projected to allow 826 earned runs in 1460 innings. On the summary page, they are expected to allow 925 runs, which implies 99 unearned runs.

At first I thought this was due to after-the-fact opponent adjustments, but the Orioles and Rays should have a nearly identical strength of schedule for their pitching because they are in the same division and they have similar offensive strength.

Feb 19, 2009 07:40 AM
rating: 3
 
The Iron_Throne
(4630)

Could you explain a little how hitting VORP is turned into RS for a team? It seems a little strange that the Yankees are projected to out (hitting) VORP the Red Sox by about 50 VORP but still score 26 more runs. Is the ballpark effect that significant?

Feb 23, 2009 13:18 PM
rating: 0
 
sgeleil
(10038)

"Is the ballpark effect that significant?"

I'm not sure what BP's park factors as are, but yeah, it could be. Looking at Baseball Reference's multi-year park factors for batting:

Fenway Park (108)
Yankee Stadium (103)

Converting those to multipliers since half the games will occur in ostensibly average parks, Boston's offense will appear to be 1.04 times better than it would in a neutral park, and the Yankees would look 1.015 times better.

Dividing Boston's projected 851 runs by 1.04 yields 812 neutral park runs. Multiplying those by the 1.015 Yankee Stadium multiplier gives you 830 runs. So park factors are probably the bulk of the difference.

Feb 24, 2009 11:49 AM
rating: 0
 
The Iron_Throne
(4630)

Well, that does explain some of the discrepancy, but the Yankees are predicted to out-VORP the Red Sox by ~20% (197 to 160) on the hitting side. So with park factors counted in, the prediction should end up with the Yankees scoring a good deal more, rather than about equal as per the park factors results from sgeleil.

Feb 24, 2009 16:43 PM
rating: 0
 
milkmoney11
(33841)

I don't entirely understand how VORP is not adjusted for the different positions in the depth charts. For example, Ryan Raburn for the Tigers is listed as a backup for an outfield position and for 2B. For both positions he has a VORP that is 10.7.

I don't see how this can be because his value over a replacement at 2nd base (in terms of strictly hitting which VORP is based on) would be higher than it would be for an outfield position because the replacement level for an outfielder has more production

Feb 28, 2009 14:17 PM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

You'll notice that ALL of his stats, not just VORP, are the same across the board. The stats (other than PA) are not broken down by position; they're a total across all positions.

Feb 28, 2009 18:36 PM
 
milkmoney11
(33841)

I guess VORP just can't be read into too much for those players who have utility roles since it is a composite of all their positions consolidated into one score. I suppose this is where common sense comes in to know that his bat as a 2nd basemen is far more valuable then it would be for an outfielder, at least as far as offensive categories are concerned.

Mar 01, 2009 10:00 AM
rating: 0
 
ChasesAses
(39637)

Correct me if i'm wrong, or if this has already been explained, but why do the amount of wins NOT add up to 2430?

Mar 03, 2009 23:35 PM
rating: 0
 
milkmoney11
(33841)

It is not an actual game by game, team vs. team won/loss projection. It is based on the expected runs teams will score and allow in the upcoming season. For that reason, the wins and losses won't add up.

Check this for a more in depth explanation...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

Mar 04, 2009 17:38 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

As of today, they do. I'm not sure how far they were off when you commented two days ago, but if the difference was <3 the likely answer is "roundoff error". The numbers behind the display say something like "86.617394", not the "87" displayed, and those differences can add up.

Mar 05, 2009 09:13 AM
 
colbylee
(18769)

How does Colorado lose Holliday but gain 94 runs? Was Fast Willie Taverez really that bad?

Mar 11, 2009 17:22 PM
rating: 0
 
juiced
(41014)

Clay how do the Yanks lose Arod and somehow shoot past Boston in today's update? How did the Angels lose 3 games to fall into a tie with the A's? Is something wrong with today's updates?

Mar 14, 2009 17:45 PM
rating: 0
 
IRONPRAWN
(18215)

Detroit has closed the gap as well...it would be nice to be privy to the reasoning.

Mar 15, 2009 07:57 AM
rating: 0
 
Richie
(27368)

What I'd appreciate is a list as to which players/teams got updated with each update. I'd prefer to not have to wade through all 30 teams every time.

Mar 15, 2009 20:25 PM
rating: 2
 
ScotMartin
(1292)

I notice that the projection seems to have the top team OBPs from 2008 mostly dropping back down. Ranking the teams based on their final 2008 OBP, and then comparing that list to this projection, it looks like 10 of the top 11 teams are projected to drop... many significantly so (the Mets are the exception as they are projected to be at .340 once again).

The top team OBP is Boston at .347, but .347 hasn't been high enough to lead the league this decade.

Is this something to be expected from a "safe" projection? That is tends to bring everyone back to the pack? Or do you believe that the projection is accurately showing us a league where offensive levels (at least as measured by OBP) are dropping? (Although I suppose "dropping" isn't accurate... more like "flattening" by it being removed from last year's top teams and being added to the last year's bottom teams)

Mar 18, 2009 08:50 AM
rating: 0
 
Darsox64
(10662)

That's true of all projections. The team (player, or whatever) that leads the league in something is likely to be an outlier. You can say that it's more likely than not that SOME team will have an OBP > .355 (for example), but that isn't the same thing as saying it must be Boston in particular. There is no contradiction between saying that Boston's OBP will be the best in the league and estimate .347, and saying that some team(s) will likely beat that figure.

Mar 19, 2009 18:59 PM
rating: 1
 
mrandoc
(42906)

It seems obvious that park effects are taken into account for the RS/RA totals, but what about the BA/OBP/SLG totals?

Also it would be nice to get hitting/pitching VORP totals for each team, maybe even with breakdowns for regulars/bench and starters/bullpen. It would be useful for comparing teams at a glance, which right now requires some work since the RS/RA totals are seemingly distorted by park effects.

Mar 18, 2009 10:25 AM
rating: 0
 
SteveR61
(24633)

I have to agree that some information about what changed with each update would be helpful. On what basis, for example, did the Yankees shoot up to 100 games and the Sox sink to 95? Surely it isn't because Cody Ransom is that good?

Mar 21, 2009 06:22 AM
rating: 7
 
rjblakel
(7440)

Agreed. Is there anyway to implement a change log for Depth Charts and PFM?

Mar 26, 2009 19:09 PM
rating: 3
 
R.A.Wagman
(32721)

The PECOTA card for Angels minor league 3B Matt Brown falsely makes him 10 years older than he really his, really messing up his equivalent stats and projections - I am pretty sure the same problem existed for him last year as well - any chance that can be corrected?

Mar 26, 2009 14:08 PM
rating: 0
 
baconjeff
(20029)

This may be kinda picky, but would it be too much for the names in the depth charts to match the names in PECOTA, e.g., if it's "Chris" in one, it's not "Christopher" in the other? Some of us are trying to make spreadsheets...

Mar 26, 2009 17:11 PM
rating: 3
 
rjblakel
(7440)

This would be very helpful indeed - I'm trying to use vlookups in Excel and it breaks for players like Chris Davis...

Mar 26, 2009 19:08 PM
rating: 2
 
GoodKingJohn
(21105)

something seems drastically wrong.
the average number of runs scored for the AL teams and NL teams is virtually the same. this seems impossible for two main reasons. the AL is still much better than the NL (I think) for both hitting and pitching, and even if the hitting is a 'wash' the DH should add runs.
is there a mistake somewhere?

thanks
john

Mar 31, 2009 13:53 PM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

Like last year, when the AL scored 4.68 RPG to the NL's 4.63?

For whatever reason, the two leagues do score virtually the same number of runs.

Mar 31, 2009 15:00 PM
 
dglawschool
(19506)

I asssume that one of those reasons is the NL ballparks?

Apr 02, 2009 09:22 AM
rating: 0
 
Drew106
(30818)

Is BP doing Hacking Mass this season? Please say yes.

Mar 31, 2009 15:06 PM
rating: 0
 
GoodKingJohn
(21105)

good point, Clay, I would have never dreamed it would be that close. thanks

Mar 31, 2009 15:24 PM
rating: 0
 
franchise26
(24653)

One question regarding the Rockies projection - did the humidor blow up in the offseason, or does PECOTA just not know about it? There hasn't been that kind of offensive environment at Coors since the humidor was installed.

Apr 02, 2009 09:28 AM
rating: 0
 
astarr
(50222)

Cubs will lead the ML in OBP? I've been a Cubs fan my entire life and I can tell you they will win the Series before they ever lead the ML in OBP. They are the all-time record holder in striking out three times after loading the bases.

Apr 02, 2009 13:11 PM
rating: -1
 
mrandoc
(42906)

If you strike out 3 times after loading the bases, your OBP is .500. Not too shabby.

Apr 02, 2009 14:21 PM
rating: 0
 
Mooser
(26842)

Err...did the Angels bus crash. Wa happened?

Apr 02, 2009 20:52 PM
rating: 0
 
AutomatedTeller
(40335)

The current Pirates Depth chart has Morgan batting 3rd and McClouth leading off, which is backwards.

Apr 04, 2009 10:14 AM
rating: 0
 
R.A.Wagman
(32721)

The Blue Jays depth chart needs some updating - some pitchers and batters are now in AAA and/or injured. Also - if John McDonald is getting 60% of the starts at SS, the SS position should not be leading off - even if Marco Scutaro, with the other 40% leads off when he plays

Apr 04, 2009 17:06 PM
rating: 0
 
grisch
(49866)

Is there a downloadable version of the depth charts?

I'm a subscriber but can't seem to locate a dowloadable version of the depth charts.

Apr 06, 2009 05:35 AM
rating: 0
 
Scott H.
(50757)

Hi, BP -

Are the depth charts going to be updated, and if so, when? I live in San Diego (feel sorry for me, at least in a baseball sense) and know of several errors on the SD depth chart (for instance Chris Burke is no longer a Padre and Henry Blanco is at least a platoon catcher and Alfonzo Eliezer did not make the team)

Apr 07, 2009 11:29 AM
rating: 0
 
Scott H.
(50757)

Sorry, I meant to say Eliezer Alfonzo. He was sent to the minors on 3/29 and Chris Burke was traded to the Mariners on 3/29

Apr 07, 2009 14:55 PM
rating: 0
 
gkuper
(49590)

Are these going to be updated anytime soon?

Apr 28, 2009 09:22 AM
rating: 0
 
polyspast
(27134)

I second that question. With the first month of play nearly in the books, would love to know how you see teams juggling their rosters.

Apr 29, 2009 08:45 AM
rating: 0
 
LDiazzesati
(38772)

Third'd.

May 03, 2009 22:41 PM
rating: 0
 
deacon14
(26198)

I am confused with what is going on with the depth charts.

It says it is updated on 5-10 and that the Blue Jays wil go 58-70. Is it predicting they will go 58-70 the rest of the season (so 80-82 total)?

Is it also updating the players' stats below? I think it is (for example Cervelli is on Yanks now) but are those for the rest of the season or total?

May 12, 2009 07:13 AM
rating: 0
 
philosofool
(41607)

I have no idea what these records mean anymore. And I like having the pre-season projections for posterity.

May 13, 2009 23:26 PM
rating: 0
 
dpratola
(1450)

Clay, a glitch. No saves allocated to Angels bullpen.

May 14, 2009 01:39 AM
rating: 0
 
McCaffery
(46961)

No saves allocated anywhere.

May 30, 2009 11:55 AM
rating: 0
 
baconjeff
(20029)

As far as I can tell, by looking at the win-loss totals for pitchers, the 06-07 depth charts assume 110 more games to be played in the season. Is that number correct?

Jun 09, 2009 11:04 AM
rating: 0
 
stlpdx
(47802)

Anxiously awaiting a post-8/9 update for help with the stretch run, thanks.

Aug 26, 2009 07:54 AM
rating: 0
 
MAbraham1
(52647)

ditto

Sep 01, 2009 01:40 AM
rating: 1
 
deacon14
(26198)

Any chance we get one last update?

Sep 03, 2009 10:19 AM
rating: 0
 
stlpdx
(47802)

guess not...i have the greatest respect for BP but in the future don't say there will be updates when there won't be

Sep 11, 2009 21:59 PM
rating: 0
 
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