Last Update: 02-01
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I know PECOTA is known for underestimating...but Howard under 40 HR and Utley under 30? Come on....stop.
Not to mention 88 wins. This is at least a 94-win team. Easily.
I can buy Howard at 250 but not under 40 HR. Also, Halladay is going to do better than what PECOTA has. Moyer will not get that many starts so Phillies will be doing better. Pretty gloomy projection for the bullpen.
Can everyone pause and take a look at Ben Francisco's line? Will somebody please go edit that...
.263/.330/.446 is his career line; does a .270/.345./.451 in his age 28 season, in the easier league, playing in a band box really surprise you that much?
You think that there is a problem with 40 RBI with 102 Plate appearances? Let's see - if he played every day he would generate about 250 RBI - not bad!
The PA in each row are those at the position. The other statistics are aggregate. So it's not 40 RBI in 102 PA. It's 40 RBI in all his 377 PA, with 102 of those 377 PA being in CF.
As of 1am PT, 1/30, these still look very strange. Howard is listed with a 25 vorp while rollins is listed at 35. I'm bullish on Rollins this year, but I'm rather sure he won't be the offensive producer Howard is. I'm new around here, so maybe I'm missing something, but these numbers still seem way off.
I think that what you're missing is that VORP is calibrated against a replacement player at the same position, so Rollins is better vs. other shortstops than Howard is against other first basemen, even if Howard's raw stats appear better.
Yes, I'm still getting familiar with VORP, but I am aware that it's in relation to a replacement level player. If I'm not mistaken, it's basically just like fangraphs' WAR, only there's no defensive component in VORP. That means there is batting, positional, and replacement adjustment. Let me know if I got that wrong. Howard's defensive value (UZR) is about 0 for the last three years, yet his WAR is 4.3, 3.3, and 4.8 (2009). VORP has him at about 2.5 WAR next year. Very strange. Looking at the stats up top, it looks like PECOTA has Howard with a 500 slg, which happens to be 86 points lower than his career average, and 65 points lower than his previous three year average - and there has not been a steady decline during that time. That seems very low to me. To put this in further perspective, CHONE's projection has Howard as 4.1 WAR, after dropping out his UZR. Bill James and Marcel are also significantly more bullish on Howard than PECOTA. Maybe PECOTA foresees some kind of ninja-level defensive shift starting next year, or maybe I'm still missing something, so please let me know if I am.
Your description is accurate. VORP uses different positional adjustments than Fangraphs/Tango though. 1B, for example, are penalized more in VORP than by Fangraph's positional adjustments. It's true that PECOTA thinks Howard is in for a steep decline as compared to other systems. I think Dan was just remarking that VORP isn't projecting Rollins to be the offensive producer that Howard is, just better compared to his positional replacement.
Thanks a lot for the clarification and input - and I also apologize for being vague in my initial point about Rollins and Howard. It was meant to illustrate my concern, not make the case that something was wrong (which apparently was the case). It looks as if they have updated these again, and though Rollins is still in line for a very strong year, for him at least, it also looks like Howard's numbers have been moved upwards. A 523 slg still seems a bit low, but we're getting there! Again, thanks for the help in understanding these numbers. I wonder if they will be adjusted yet again?
I wish BP would tell us what was changing when these updates are made.
I am a Braves fan, so I don't mind dissing the Phillies, but the projections for Halladay and Howard seem well below their career norms and both players are pretty well established by now. Furthermore, Halladay is moving from the AL East to the NL East, that should help him, not hurt him. (And Phillies fans, lest you feel it is just your team, look at the projections for the Braves' pitchers. If those crappy projections come true, the Braves won't win more than 70 games despite what PECOTA says.)
keep in mind that these are weighted mean forecasts, which is to say, that they are not necessarily thinking that Halladay will put up that line, but that that line is the weighted average of his 10th through 90th percentile projections. That means that in includes scenarios where he is injured, unusually ineffective, etc.
They really don't like Ibanez, huh? Or are those numbers his home splits?