Playoff Prospectus: Anaheim Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
by Chris Kahrl
So here we are, in the "underdog" series, in no small part because
this series is the one featuring the two American League playoff teams that
New Yorkers don't know about. One team wasn't supposed to be able to beat
the Yankees, and the other wasn't supposed to beat the team that was
supposed to beat the Yankees. Dominant provincialism is so cute, isn't it?
Seriously, this series features two teams who belong here. The Angels won 99
games this year, and if that's supposed to be an underdog, then the
standards must have recently been Reaganized (stealing missiles from
taxpayers=mistake, not treason; ketchup=veggie, not condiment; 99
wins=underdog, not kickass ballclub). As for their opponents, you can argue
about the happy accident of divisional alignments, but the Twins are
positioned to win the AL Central now and into the future. They don't have to
apologize for John Hart's strip-mining or Kenny Williams' peculiar genius,
because they were busy minding their own business, and built a winner with a
window of opportunity that starts now and goes forward for the next three
years. As the 1987 Twins or the 1997 Marlins or even the 1973 Mets
demonstrate, it isn't whether or not you're the best dancer, but whether you
match up with your partners to your advantage.
LF-L Jacque Jones (.300/.341/.511/.287)
Anaheim Angels
SS-R David Eckstein (.293/.363/.388/.274)
One of the numerous fun things about this postseason is that while neither
the Angels or the Twins really jibe offensively with so-called 'sabermetric'
offenses, with the Twins ranking ahead of only five AL clubs in walks drawn,
and the Angels right behind them. But life is nothing if not entertaining
in its capacity to tweak the nose of simple orthodoxy, so let's keep in mind
what both ballclubs do well. They're both fielding lineups with players in
their offensive primes; for the Angels, only Tim Salmon is over 30, while
for the Twins, Corey Koskie is the lineup's graybeard at 29. Both teams put
the ball in play a lot, and although this is more true of the Angels than
the Twins, few of the hitters on either team are extremely strikeout-prone.
The Twins have some guys who get on base, and some guys who hit for power,
and some guys who just hit the ball hard, but the Angels have a few better
all-around offensive players, like Salmon and Glaus.
But let's not rush to write off the Twins and Angels as anti-stathead
offensive teams. Both feature some very successful platoons. The Angels have
their DH platoon, with Brad Fullmer and Shawn Wooten giving them a lot more
value than Dean Palmer or Juan Gonzalez, among others. Although Adam Kennedy
isn't a liability against left-handed pitchers, Scioscia seems inclined to
platoon him with Benji Gil in the postseason. That's not a bad thing, but it
shouldn't be an automatic decision. Kennedy hit .275/.320/.449 against
lefties, versus Gil's .310/.344/.494. But Scioscia's proven flexible on this
score, so I doubt he'll platoon the two reflexively if there's a
soft-tossing lefty who's overly cute. Eric Milton isn't that kind of guy,
but it does help de-fang some of the damage the Twins' wealth in
left-handed relief might wreak in itself.
If there's a what-the-hell element to the lineup, it's two things. First is
that Scott Spiezio plays every day, even against right-handers. Against
them, he hit only .248/.336/.389, or what is generally referred to as
'badly' for a first baseman. But then again, Spiezio mauled lefties, and
that will again help against a Twins' pen that's strong on situational
advantages. Second is Darin Erstad, he of the nifty 2000 and mediocre
remainder of his career. This isn't a distinction between Brady Anderson's
big year and the rest of his career, which was mostly productive; it's a gap
between greatness and dubious offensive adequacy. However, while those are
weaknesses, keep in mind that the rest of the non-Molina components of the
offense are good offensive players. Before the over-vaunted but handy Garret
Anderson, Troy Glaus is already making a steady if overdue impression on the
national media. Don't be surprised if he continues to star.
The Twins don't really platoon so much as Ron Gardenhire isn't afraid to
mimic Tom Kelly's basic strategy of playing everyone, thus keeping everyone
on the roster sharp with frequent use. That doesn't mean he doesn't also use
them to advantage. So he'll spot Tom Prince for A.J. Pierzynski against some
tough lefties, and do the same with Matt LeCroy for David Ortiz in the DH
slot. He'll mix and match his trio of right fielders, not really platooning
as much as riding the hot hand. He would even spot-start Denny Hocking for
young Luis Rivas, although that isn't an option any longer. As a result,
Gardenhire loses a wee bit of flexibility, since he might hold back on
pinch-hitting for Rivas earlier in games to keep from having to use David
Lamb much.
Let's not paint too pretty a picture of burgeoning offensive juggernauts,
however. Both lineups have that '70s lineup weak spot, punting getting
anything offensive from the second slot of their lineups. Cristian Guzman's
2002 was Ivan DeJesus-errific, while Darin Erstad conjures up more memories
of Rick Miller than Fred Lynn.
The two non-starters in RF from the RF du Jour melange
Anaheim Angels
C-R Jose Molina (.271/.312/.314/.217)
As mentioned before, this is an area where the Twins have an advantage
because of Gardenhire's willingness to play everybody, where a multitude of
good options means that they won't have to worry about running out of useful
offensive parts in-game. However, baseball isn't the BCS, where you declare
a winner on the basis of nebulous definitions of all-around strength.
Scioscia's bench is weaker, but he also doesn't use it as much. He operates
his two platoons, and he has the tactical option of flipping Scott Spiezio
around the infield late in the game if he needs to pinch-run for Troy Glaus
or something. Alex Ochoa will come in for late inning defense, and if he
chooses, he can pinch-hit for a Molina at will with either Palmeiro or
Ochoa. It's a bench built around high-leverage tactical gambits as opposed
to people you can seriously play. If the Angels lose almost any regular,
it'll hurt, but an injury to anybody but a Molina or the middle infielders
puts Ochoa or Palmeiro on the field and Salmon at DH.
RHP Joe Mays (-0.5, 95 1/3, 5.38)
Anaheim Angels
RHP Kevin Appier (1.4, 188 1/3, 3.92)
Neither of these rotations appear in this series to be at their best.
However, that's the core question: are the last month or two what you should
take your marks from? Will Eric Milton and Brad Radke and Joe Mays pitch
like the Big Three of 2001, or like the guys who spent the second half
rehabbing? The series against the A's made it appear that Milton and Radke
are assets again, but Mays still looks like he has no business pitching in
October. The question isn't whether or not Gardenhire should be
second-guessed for not bumping up Rick Reed out of too much concern for his
experience; it should be why Mays is starting instead of Johan Santana or
Kyle Lohse, the guys who have been among the best starters in the Twins'
rotation all summer. Worse yet, because the series against the A's went the
distance, the Twins have to open with Mays. The best-case scenario for the
Twins is that Santana or Lohse turn in yeoman work in middle relief, because
that otherwise resembles a great way to spot the Angels a game.
The Angels are featuring the same basic group they've relied upon all season
now that Aaron Sele is no longer part of the picture.
The drive to get their best, Jarrod Washburn, onto the mound twice against the Yankees
handicaps them initially, but they'll still have him available to start
twice in the series, and the modest advantage is that by Sele's absence,
they're stronger overall. Kevin Appier's success in the Metrodome is
something handy in their favor. Ramon Ortiz's struggles against the Yankees
seem to have put him out of favor. Although my gut has mostly given me only
indigestion this offseason, I could see him having problems in the Humpdome
if he starts Game Two. John Lackey has been wonderfully effective against
left-handed batters in his half-season, relying especially on heavy, hard
heat, all of which suggests that he might give the Twins fits.
LHP Eddie Guardado (13.2, 67 2/3, 2.93)
Anaheim Angels
RHP Troy Percival (13.1, 56 1/3, 1.92)
Like the bench, this is an area where the Twins have an obvious advantage in
terms of depth, but that overstates their comparative strength. The Angels
have more reliable starting pitching, and if Ben Weber's healthy, then
Scioscia has three right-handed relievers (Weber, Donnelly, and postseason
'secret weapon' Francisco Rodriguez) who can give him more than an inning
apiece to get the game to Troy Percival, even if he has to pull a starter by
the sixth. He's also got Scot Shields to give him three or four innings in
case of a disaster. The question is what Scott Schoeneweis is for, since he
hasn't been a success as a situational lefty, and Scioscia doesn't appear to
trust him to pitch a complete inning, even with a seven-run lead.
Beyond the depth and talent he's going to have to rely upon to compensate
for a combined four starts from Joe Mays and Rick Reed, Gardenhire does have
the advantage that he can use his depth in lefty relief help to emasculate
Brad Fullmer after the fifth inning if he wants to. The pressure will then
be on Scioscia to pull one of his most dangerous bats early, but with Eddie
Guardado in the closer's role, he should give in and pull if the situation
demands it, because there's no right-handed closer to keep Fullmer in the
game for. But as previously stated, he should take a page from Sparky
Anderson's book, and hook a struggling starter to go to Santana or Romero or
even Lohse at the first sign of trouble.
Chris Kahrl is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
clicking here.
SS-B Cristian Guzman (.273/.292/.385/.236)
3B-L Corey Koskie (.267/.368/.447/.286)
DH-L David Ortiz (.272/.339/.500/.290)
CF-R Torii Hunter (.289/.334/.524/.294)
1B-L Doug Mientkiewicz (.261/.365/.392/.276)
RF du Jour*
C-L A.J. Pierzynski (.300/.334/.439/.271)
2B-R Luis Rivas (.256/.305/.392/.246)
* RF du Jour: manager's choice of
OF-B Bobby Kielty (.291/.405/.484/.312)
UT-R Michael Cuddyer (.259/.311/.429/.261)
or OF-R Dustan Mohr (.269/.325/.433/.265)
CF-L Darin Erstad (.283/.313/.389/.256)
RF-R Tim Salmon (.286/.380/.503/.310)
LF-L Garret Anderson (.306/.332/.539/.297)
3B-R Troy Glaus (.250/.352/.453/.285)
DH-L Brad Fullmer (.289/.357/.531/.304)
1B-B Scott Spiezio (.285/.371/.436/.288)
C-R Bengie Molina (.245/.274/.322/.212)
2B-L Adam Kennedy (.312/.345/.449/.284)
C-R Tom Prince (.224/.317/.392/.250)
DH-R Matt LeCroy (.260/.306/.448/.257)
INF-B David Lamb (non-essential personnel, evacuate before use)
DH-R Shawn Wooten (.292/.331/.442/.278)
INF-R Benji Gil (.285/.307/.431/.260)
OF-R Alex Ochoa (.261/.361/.404/.272)*
OF-L Orlando Palmeiro (.300/.368/.354/.269)
PR-Don't Chone Figgins (boy, what a game if he has to bat)
* combined season totals
RHP Rick Reed (1.0, 188, 3.78)
LHP Eric Milton (0.0, 171, 4.84)
RHP Brad Radke (-0.2, 118 1/3, 4.72)
RHP John Lackey (0.2, 108 1/3, 3.66)
or Ramon Ortiz (1.9, 217 1/3, 3.77)
LHP Jarrod Washburn (3.3, 206, 3.15)
Ortiz or Lackey, whoever didn't start in Game Two
LHP J.C. Romero (25.6, 81, 1.89)
RHP Tony Fiore (19.3, 91, 3.16)
RHP LaTroy Hawkins (16.3, 80 1/3, 2.13)
RHP Mike Jackson (10.0, 55, 3.27)
LHP Johan Santana (9.0, 108 1/3, 2.99)
RHP Kyle Lohse (-1.7, 180 2/3, 4.23)
RHP Ben Weber (18.9, 78, 2.54)
RHP Scot Shields (14.4, 49, 2.20)
RHP Brendan Donnelly (13.5, 49 2/3, 2.17)
RHP Francisco Rodriguez (3.3, 5 2/3, 0.00)
LHP Scott Schoeneweis (1.4, 118, 4.88)