Roberto Alvarez

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007	MYR	1C	413	49	20	3	6	50	24	80	6	3	0.1	.291	.334	.405	.064	.240	.274	.339	.212	-27.7	31-LF -3	-0.3

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 5:44 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	453	51	25	3	10	47	27	107	6	3	0.0	.267	.313	.415	-.084	.265	.311	.424	.249	1.4	107-DH	1.6
75^o	433	43	22	3	8	43	24	105	6	3	0.0	.253	.298	.384	-.164	.251	.296	.392	.233	-6.7	103-DH	0.9
60^o	414	37	20	3	6	39	22	103	5	3	0.0	.241	.285	.356	-.233	.239	.283	.364	.219	-13.1	99-DH	0.3
50^o	409	35	20	2	6	38	21	102	5	3	0.0	.239	.282	.350	-.249	.237	.280	.357	.215	-14.5	98-DH	0.1
40^o	402	33	19	2	5	37	21	101	5	3	0.0	.234	.277	.340	-.273	.232	.275	.347	.210	-16.6	96-DH	0.0
25^o	384	28	17	2	4	33	19	99	5	3	0.0	.224	.265	.316	-.334	.222	.263	.323	.195	-21.2	92-DH	-0.5
10^o	358	22	15	2	2	29	16	95	4	2	0.0	.211	.250	.287	-.408	.210	.249	.293	.176	-26.0	86-DH	-1.0
Weighted Mean	433	39	21	3	6	42	23	108	6	3	0.0	.240	.284	.354	-.239	.238	.282	.361	.217	-11.0	103-DH	0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	58%	22%	18%	2.01

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 24)	433	39	21	3	6	42	23	108	6	3	0.0	.240	.284	.354	-.239	.238	.282	.361	.217	-11.0	103-DH	0.3
2009 (age 25)	430	40	21	3	7	44	22	109	6	3	0.0	.242	.285	.365	-.221	.237	.278	.365	.222	-5.6	102-DH	0.2
2010 (age 26)	-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.256	.301	.378
vs RHP	.236	.277	.342
Split	+.020	+.024	+.036
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-0.4	0.7	0.3	$525,000	-13.2	0.0
2009	0.0	0.3	0.2	$450,000	-6.7	0.0
2010	0.0	0.1	0.1	$450,000	-2.3	0.0
2011	0.1	0.1	0.2	$500,000	-1.2	0.0
2012	0.1	0.1	0.3	$575,000	0.2	0.5
2013	0.1	0.1	0.2	$500,000	-0.2	0.0
2014	0.0	0.1	0.2	$500,000	-0.2	0.0
Peak			1.2	$425,000	0.2	0.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.233	.215	.195	.217
2009	.239	.222	.202	.222
2010	-- out of baseball --
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	18%	0%	32%
2009	61%	51%	31%
2010	80%	73%	29%
2011	82%	78%	30%
2012	86%	84%	24%
2013	91%	89%	23%
2014	93%	92%	20%

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