<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

He's probably very handsome. Brett Anderson
Oakland Athletics [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 20
6' 4"
215 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 SBN 1B 8 4 0 14 14 81.3 76 10 85 3 61% .335 4 1.06 2.21 5.72 5.43 11.0 3.0 4.9 1.0 1.3 1.4
2007 VIS 1C 3 3 0 9 9 39.0 50 11 40 6 53% .383 -17 1.56 4.85 11.36 8.21 14.8 4.2 5.8 2.4 -9.9 -0.7


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 6:05 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 8 9 0 26 26 150.0 170 61 86 16 50% .309 7 1.54 4.57 5.08 4.65 9.9 3.3 4.9 1.0 14.4 2.6 3.0
75o 7 10 0 25 25 141.3 171 61 78 17 50% .320 3 1.64 5.27 5.63 5.37 10.6 3.5 4.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6
60o 6 11 0 25 25 135.7 170 61 74 17 50% .327 0 1.70 5.73 6.00 5.84 11.0 3.6 4.6 1.2 -6.9 0.4 0.8
50o 6 11 0 25 25 132.7 170 61 72 17 50% .331 -2 1.74 5.97 6.19 6.09 11.2 3.7 4.6 1.2 -10.8 0.0 0.4
40o 5 11 0 24 24 130.3 170 60 70 18 50% .334 -3 1.77 6.19 6.36 6.31 11.4 3.7 4.5 1.2 -14.1 -0.4 0.1
25o 4 11 0 23 23 118.7 167 59 61 18 50% .349 -9 1.91 7.21 7.17 7.34 12.4 4.0 4.3 1.4 -28.0 -1.9 -1.4
10o 3 11 0 22 22 104.0 161 57 50 19 50% .367 -17 2.10 8.62 8.27 8.78 13.6 4.4 4.0 1.6 -43.0 -3.5 -3.0
Weighted Mean 6 12 0 26 26 141.7 183 65 76 19 50% .332 -2 1.75 6.09 6.26 6.21 11.3 3.7 4.6 1.2 -12.4 -0.2 0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

60%

15%

10%

1.32

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 20) 6 12 0 26 26 141.7 183 65 76 19 50% .332 -2 1.75 6.09 6.26 6.21 11.3 3.7 4.6 1.2 -12.4 -0.2 0.5
2009 (age 21) 7 10 0 25 25 143.3 169 56 81 18 50% .314 3 1.57 5.21 5.39 5.33 10.3 3.1 4.8 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.7
2010 (age 22) 5 9 0 30 20 120.3 147 47 64 16 49% .318 -6 1.62 5.66 5.69 5.79 10.7 3.2 4.5 1.2 -4.3 0.3 0.8
2011 (age 23) 5 9 0 31 18 114.0 147 46 59 14 51% .331 -8 1.69 6.05 5.96 6.22 11.3 3.2 4.4 1.1 -9.6 -0.3 0.3
2012 (age 24) 6 9 1 37 18 123.7 152 42 71 14 50% .326 -2 1.57 5.21 5.41 5.33 10.8 2.8 4.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2
2013 (age 25) 4 6 1 35 10 87.3 107 28 51 11 51% .324 -4 1.54 5.31 5.39 5.43 10.8 2.5 5.0 1.2 0.0 0.4 1.1
2014 (age 26) 3 4 1 25 7 61.3 74 20 35 7 51% .320 -4 1.51 5.30 5.13 5.48 10.5 2.6 4.9 1.0 -0.4 0.2 0.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .274 .353 .407
vs RHB .299 .386 .479
Split -.025 -.033 -.072
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.5 $600,000 -10.2 2.0
2009 1.7 $2,475,000 3.4 7.0
2010 0.8 $950,000 -2.7 3.3
2011 0.3 $550,000 -7.9 2.3
2012 1.2 $2,100,000 2.4 3.9
2013 1.1 $1,800,000 1.3 5.9
2014 0.9 $1,400,000 0.7 3.4
Peak 6.0 $5,400,000 7.1 26.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.37 6.09 7.34 6.21
2009 4.61 5.04 6.08 5.33
2010 4.85 5.94 6.82 5.79
2011 5.44 6.51 8.01 6.22
2012 4.56 5.16 6.77 5.33
2013 4.54 6.11 6.99 5.43
2014 4.73 6.42 7.35 5.48


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 19%
2009 16% 5% 52%
2010 39% 13% 34%
2011 32% 11% 25%
2012 36% 21% 34%
2013 38% 25% 26%
2014 59% 35% 23%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

36

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Chris George 2000 43 11 Mike Kusiewicz 1997 24
2 Aaron Thompson 2007 42 12 Chris Narveson 2002 24
3 Michael Bowden 2007 39 13 Jeff Suppan 1995 24
4 Anthony Swarzak 2006 35 14 Adam Wainwright 2002 23
5 Troy Patton 2006 33 15 Randy Knoll 1997 23
6 Bobby Livingston 2003 33 16 Nick Adenhart 2007 23
7 Tavo Alvarez 1992 32 17 Kyle Waldrop 2006 23
8 Dennys Reyes 1997 26 18 Ryan Feierabend 2006 22
9 Todd Ritchie 1992 26 19 Brian Rose 1996 20
10 Adam Miller 2005 25 20 William Martinez 1998 20

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.