<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

He's probably very handsome. Jonathan Arencibia
Toronto Blue Jays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 22
6' 1"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 AUB 1A 249 31 17 1 3 25 14 56 0 0 -0.4 .254 .309 .377 .011 .209 .245 .319 .191 -27.9 54-C 0 0.6


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 5:54 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 475 47 27 2 10 48 28 129 4 2 -0.1 .238 .288 .379 -.169 .237 .289 .383 .236 -1.8 112-C 1 2.7
75o 458 42 26 2 9 45 25 126 4 2 0.0 .230 .278 .364 -.212 .229 .279 .367 .227 -6.4 109-C 0 2.2
60o 444 38 24 2 8 42 23 124 4 2 0.0 .224 .270 .351 -.247 .223 .271 .354 .219 -9.9 105-C 0 1.8
50o 433 35 23 2 7 40 22 122 4 2 0.0 .219 .264 .341 -.272 .218 .265 .345 .213 -12.3 103-C 0 1.5
40o 409 30 21 2 6 36 19 118 3 2 0.0 .210 .251 .321 -.326 .209 .253 .325 .199 -16.9 98-C 0 1.0
25o 378 24 19 2 4 32 16 112 3 2 0.0 .198 .236 .298 -.390 .197 .237 .301 .182 -21.4 91-C 0 0.4
10o 343 18 16 2 3 26 13 105 2 1 0.0 .187 .221 .274 -.454 .186 .222 .277 .162 -24.7 83-C -1 -0.2
Weighted Mean 430 33 23 2 7 40 21 122 3 2 0.0 .215 .259 .333 -.295 .214 .260 .336 .207 -14.4 102-C 1 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

58%

68%

19%

15%

1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 430 33 23 2 7 40 21 122 3 2 0.0 .215 .259 .333 -.295 .214 .260 .336 .207 -14.4 102-C 1 1.7
2009 (age 23) 444 38 26 2 7 43 22 119 4 2 -0.1 .226 .269 .353 -.243 .229 .275 .364 .219 -8.3 105-C 0 1.8
2010 (age 24) 433 40 25 2 9 45 24 109 4 2 -0.1 .237 .285 .374 -.181 .240 .291 .386 .233 -1.9 103-C 0 1.9
2011 (age 25) 422 38 23 2 9 44 23 108 3 2 -0.1 .231 .278 .368 -.205 .234 .284 .379 .227 -3.5 100-C -2 1.4
2012 (age 26) 391 36 21 2 10 42 22 99 3 2 -0.1 .238 .286 .387 -.161 .241 .292 .399 .237 -0.4 93-C -4 1.2
2013 (age 27) 307 27 18 2 7 33 19 70 2 1 -0.1 .249 .299 .395 -.122 .251 .305 .407 .245 1.4 75-C -2 1.2
2014 (age 28) 349 31 19 2 8 38 19 87 2 1 -0.1 .242 .288 .389 -.153 .244 .294 .401 .238 0.1 84-C -2 1.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .231 .277 .359
vs RHP .211 .253 .321
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.8 2.4 1.7 $1,825,000 -13.0 0.3
2009 -0.3 2.1 1.8 $2,100,000 -7.4 2.4
2010 0.2 1.7 1.9 $2,425,000 -0.6 3.6
2011 0.0 1.5 1.4 $1,875,000 -3.7 2.5
2012 0.2 1.0 1.2 $1,625,000 -1.0 3.2
2013 0.3 0.9 1.2 $2,050,000 1.3 3.8
2014 0.2 0.9 1.1 $1,850,000 0.5 3.6
Peak 9.3 $7,900,000 1.3 19.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .227 .213 .182 .207
2009 .230 .209 .186 .219
2010 .245 .225 .201 .233
2011 .245 .219 .203 .227
2012 .255 .229 .216 .237
2013 .258 .233 .219 .245
2014 .258 .224 .201 .238


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 58%
2009 19% 8% 63%
2010 36% 21% 69%
2011 44% 31% 68%
2012 64% 45% 73%
2013 62% 43% 70%
2014 54% 52% 65%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

47

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 David Parrish 1992 40 11 Mike Gulan 2003 33
2 Todd Jennings 1979 36 12 Brad Corley 1971 33
3 Jake Fox 1981 36 13 Lou Palmisano 1982 33
4 Mike Harrison 1970 36 14 Edgar Cruz 1960 33
5 Jimmy Gonzalez 1973 35 15 Jeff Alfano 2007 32
6 Javi Herrera 1992 35 16 Chris Abbe 1975 32
7 Eddy Ramos 1975 34 17 Kris Harvey 1969 32
8 Sean Mulligan 1975 34 18 Andrew Prater 2000 31
9 Josh Paul 1957 34 19 Paul Chiaffredo 1979 30
10 Brandon Inge 1998 33 20 Eli Marrero 2005 30

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.