Jonathan Arencibia

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:02 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	562	70	37	2	26	91	30	130	1	1	-0.8	.286	.328	.519	.121	.288	.330	.531	.288	37.4	132-C -7	5.0
75^o	548	59	34	2	22	80	27	130	1	1	-0.8	.267	.307	.471	.002	.268	.308	.482	.267	21.2	129-C -6	3.6
60^o	536	51	31	2	19	72	25	130	1	1	-0.8	.252	.290	.434	-.091	.253	.291	.444	.251	9.2	126-C -6	2.5
50^o	530	48	30	2	17	68	24	130	1	1	-0.7	.245	.282	.417	-.134	.246	.284	.427	.242	3.8	125-C -5	2.0
40^o	526	45	29	2	16	64	23	130	1	1	-0.7	.239	.276	.403	-.169	.240	.277	.413	.235	-0.5	124-C -5	1.6
25^o	518	41	28	1	14	59	21	130	0	1	-0.7	.230	.266	.381	-.223	.231	.267	.390	.224	-7.1	122-C -4	1.0
10^o	508	36	26	1	12	53	20	129	0	1	-0.7	.220	.254	.356	-.284	.221	.255	.365	.211	-14.2	120-C -4	0.3
Weighted Mean	556	52	32	2	19	72	25	136	1	1	-0.7	.248	.285	.424	-.105	.249	.287	.434	.245	4.9	130-C -5	2.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
41%	66%	12%	4%	0.92

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 23)	556	52	32	2	19	72	25	136	1	1	-0.7	.248	.285	.424	-.105	.249	.287	.434	.245	4.9	130-C -5	2.2
2010 (age 24)	505	46	28	1	18	67	23	122	0	1	-0.6	.247	.285	.425	-.099	.251	.290	.441	.245	5.5	119-C -2	2.2
2011 (age 25)	452	38	24	1	15	58	21	107	0	1	-0.5	.240	.280	.410	-.135	.245	.285	.425	.239	1.5	107-C -5	1.5
2012 (age 26)	440	37	22	1	16	56	21	107	0	1	-0.3	.239	.279	.416	-.130	.243	.284	.430	.239	1.5	104-C -3	1.2
2013 (age 27)	426	38	23	1	16	57	20	93	0	1	-0.3	.251	.291	.433	-.075	.256	.296	.448	.250	4.9	101-C -3	1.5
2014 (age 28)	445	38	25	1	17	61	22	104	1	1	-0.2	.241	.278	.425	-.118	.245	.283	.440	.241	1.9	106-C -5	1.0
2015 (age 29)	421	35	22	1	15	56	19	97	0	1	-0.2	.244	.279	.418	-.122	.248	.284	.433	.240	1.6	100-C -3	1.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.263	.302	.449
vs RHP	.243	.279	.408
Split	+.020	+.023	+.041
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	2.5	-5.0	2.2	$2,700,000	6.3	9.1
2010	2.2	-2.0	2.2	$3,275,000	9.0	13.4
2011	-1.1	-5.0	1.5	$2,175,000	3.7	6.7
2012	-0.7	-3.0	1.2	$1,875,000	2.6	8.4
2013	4.0	-3.0	1.5	$2,975,000	7.0	10.8
2014	0.3	-5.0	1.0	$2,050,000	2.9	7.6
2015	-0.2	-3.0	1.0	$2,150,000	3.0	7.2
Peak			9.6	$10,250,000	31.4	56.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.267	.242	.224	.245
2010	.266	.242	.220	.245
2011	.259	.241	.206	.239
2012	.265	.237	.206	.239
2013	.268	.242	.220	.250
2014	.259	.233	.208	.241
2015	.267	.247	.212	.240

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	4%	0%	41%
2010	11%	0%	42%
2011	21%	6%	35%
2012	38%	20%	31%
2013	50%	31%	35%
2014	58%	39%	30%
2015	57%	44%	32%

49

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Mike Fitzgerald	1987	41		11	Xavier Nady	2002	34
2	Greg Pirkl	1994	40		12	Tagg Bozied	2003	33
3	Joe Oliver	1989	39		13	Joe Hicks	1981	32
4	Jake Fox	2006	36		14	Kevin McReynolds	1983	32
5	Brook Fordyce	1993	36		15	Matthew LeCroy	1999	32
6	Dann Bilardello	1982	36		16	Mark Higgins	1987	31
7	Ed Sprague	1991	35		17	John Russell	1984	30
8	Butch Garcia	1989	35		18	John Marzano	1986	30
9	Mitch Lyden	1988	34		19	J.J. Johnson	1997	30
10	Bob Geren	1985	34		20	Shawn Gallagher	2000	30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Arencibia began last year as one of the top college position players on the draft board, but a disappointing junior year dropped him to the bottom half of the first round. He's an offense-oriented catcher with good hitting skills and gap power. Despite a whopping 18 passed balls in short-season play, his defense is at least average and should be enough to allow him to start in the big leagues.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007	AUB	A-	249	31	17	1	3	25	14	56	0	0	-0.4	.254	.309	.377	-.427	.195	.232	.301	.178	-41.4	54-C -4	-2.2
2008	DUN	A+	262	38	22	0	13	62	11	46	0	0	0.9	.315	.344	.560	.007	.271	.297	.498	.265	9.8	54-C 0	1.5
2008	NHP	AA	275	32	14	0	14	43	7	55	0	0	-0.6	.282	.302	.496	-.066	.262	.280	.471	.252	4.1	49-C 0	0.9

Historical Stats