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He's probably very handsome. Jake Arrieta
Baltimore Orioles [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 22
6' 4"
225 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 6:08 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 10 0 26 26 141.7 163 67 83 19 46% .307 2 1.62 5.33 5.34 5.10 9.9 3.9 4.9 1.2 4.8 1.6 2.1
75o 5 11 0 25 25 132.0 165 72 71 23 46% .317 -8 1.80 6.55 6.33 6.25 10.7 4.5 4.5 1.5 -14.4 -0.4 0.1
60o 4 12 0 25 25 124.3 166 75 62 25 47% .325 -16 1.94 7.53 7.15 7.18 11.5 5.0 4.2 1.8 -27.8 -1.8 -1.3
50o 3 12 0 24 24 120.3 166 77 57 26 47% .329 -20 2.02 8.10 7.62 7.72 11.9 5.3 4.0 1.9 -34.8 -2.5 -2.0
40o 3 12 0 24 24 114.3 167 79 51 28 47% .335 -26 2.14 8.93 8.32 8.49 12.5 5.7 3.7 2.2 -44.1 -3.5 -3.0
25o 2 12 0 24 24 110.3 166 80 46 29 47% .339 -31 2.23 9.54 8.83 9.06 12.9 6.0 3.5 2.3 -50.2 -4.1 -3.6
10o 2 11 0 23 23 96.3 164 84 32 32 47% .355 -49 2.56 11.75 10.76 11.10 14.6 7.1 2.8 2.9 -68.2 -6.0 -5.5
Weighted Mean 4 13 0 27 27 135.0 185 85 66 29 47% .328 -18 1.99 7.95 7.46 7.58 11.7 5.2 4.1 1.9 -32.7 -2.6 -1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

0%

0%

0%

0%

1.45

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 22) 4 13 0 27 27 135.0 185 85 66 29 47% .328 -18 1.99 7.95 7.46 7.58 11.7 5.2 4.1 1.9 -32.7 -2.6 -1.5
2009 (age 23) 5 11 0 34 22 130.7 166 71 72 22 46% .322 -13 1.82 6.68 6.42 6.38 10.9 4.5 4.6 1.5 -15.2 -0.7 0.2
2010 (age 24) 4 10 0 37 18 120.7 152 60 64 20 47% .319 -14 1.76 6.58 6.18 6.32 10.8 4.1 4.5 1.5 -11.8 -0.6 0.2
2011 (age 25) 3 7 0 30 13 88.7 109 43 48 14 47% .316 -13 1.72 6.20 5.93 5.94 10.6 4.0 4.6 1.4 -5.4 -0.1 0.5
2012 (age 26) 3 5 0 27 9 70.7 87 35 44 10 46% .327 -9 1.73 6.11 5.84 5.86 10.6 4.1 5.3 1.2 -3.6 -0.1 0.4
2013 (age 27) 4 7 1 40 10 94.3 116 40 58 13 47% .326 -8 1.65 6.00 5.54 5.78 10.6 3.5 5.1 1.2 -2.9 -0.1 0.5
2014 (age 28) 4 6 1 38 9 89.7 98 32 58 10 47% .305 -1 1.45 4.66 4.49 4.49 9.4 2.9 5.4 1.0 6.3 1.2 1.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .301 .397 .485
vs RHB .292 .363 .446
Split +.009 +.034 +.039
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 -1.5 $400,000 -29.4 1.3
2009 0.2 $450,000 -12.2 6.2
2010 0.2 $475,000 -9.3 3.5
2011 0.5 $675,000 -3.6 2.4
2012 0.4 $650,000 -2.2 2.6
2013 0.5 $700,000 -1.6 1.7
2014 1.3 $3,675,000 7.3 5.7
Peak 4.7 $5,475,000 16.8 24.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 6.25 7.72 9.06 7.58
2009 5.18 6.62 8.25 6.38
2010 5.32 6.51 8.38 6.32
2011 5.08 5.83 8.35 5.94
2012 4.99 6.57 7.98 5.86
2013 4.76 6.15 8.93 5.78
2014 3.70 4.59 5.94 4.49


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 N/A 0% N/A
2009 24% 1% 14%
2010 45% 8% 14%
2011 63% 17% 18%
2012 73% 28% 16%
2013 71% 44% 21%
2014 72% 54% 23%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

57

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Colby Lewis 2001 88 11 Jeff Schmidt 1993 55
2 Benjamin Fritz 2003 78 12 Kurt Ainsworth 2001 54
3 Chris Clemons 1995 76 13 Darrin Babineaux 1996 54
4 Aaron Sele 1992 74 14 Brian Stephenson 1995 54
5 Dave Walling 2001 70 15 Brian Slocum 2003 54
6 Stephen Obenchain 2003 64 16 Josh Banks 2004 52
7 Wyatt Allen 2002 64 17 Andy Taulbee 1995 51
8 Preston Larrison 2003 63 18 Jon Ratliff 1994 51
9 Jason Bell 1997 56 19 Blake Wood 2007 50
10 Matt Burch 1999 55 20 Dan Haren 2003 50

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