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He's probably very handsome. Alexander Avila
Detroit Tigers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 22
5' 11"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Projected Playing Time

 Tigers Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Alex Avila 30 66 .240 7 2 8 0 .296 .374 -0.3
1   2009 Total 30 66 .240 7 2 8 0 .296 .374 -0.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 WMI A 244 21 14 0 1 22 27 41 0 1 -2.9 .305 .383 .385 -.171 .261 .329 .330 .237 -3.8 42-C 0 0.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/7/09 1:57 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 519 55 31 2 9 55 51 102 2 2 -1.8 .270 .345 .406 -.015 .270 .347 .419 .269 17.3 122-C -7 3.3
75o 492 46 27 2 8 50 47 100 2 1 -1.6 .257 .330 .382 -.083 .257 .332 .395 .257 8.6 116-C -7 2.4
60o 458 37 23 1 7 44 42 97 2 1 -1.4 .242 .313 .354 -.162 .242 .315 .366 .241 -0.4 109-C -7 1.4
50o 443 33 22 1 6 41 39 95 2 1 -1.4 .235 .305 .342 -.198 .235 .307 .353 .233 -4.1 105-C -7 1.0
40o 427 30 20 1 5 39 37 94 2 1 -1.3 .228 .298 .329 -.232 .228 .300 .340 .226 -7.3 102-C -7 0.6
25o 369 19 15 1 4 30 29 86 1 1 -1.0 .205 .272 .288 -.349 .205 .273 .297 .199 -16.4 89-C -6 -0.5
10o 327 14 12 1 3 24 25 80 1 1 -0.9 .191 .255 .261 -.423 .191 .257 .269 .179 -20.2 79-C -6 -1.0
Weighted Mean 454 35 22 1 6 43 40 98 2 1 -1.3 .236 .306 .343 -.185 .235 .308 .354 .234 -3.0 108-C -7 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

27%

48%

30%

14%

1.11

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 22) 454 35 22 1 6 43 40 98 2 1 -1.3 .236 .306 .343 -.185 .235 .308 .354 .234 -3.0 108-C -7 1.0
2010 (age 23) 481 41 24 2 8 48 45 97 2 1 -1.1 .244 .317 .365 -.124 .247 .323 .381 .245 1.7 114-C -8 1.2
2011 (age 24) 383 30 18 1 7 39 36 74 2 1 -0.9 .245 .318 .368 -.117 .248 .324 .384 .247 2.0 92-C -8 1.1
2012 (age 25) 375 29 19 1 7 40 35 74 1 1 -0.7 .246 .318 .377 -.104 .249 .324 .393 .249 2.7 90-C -7 1.2
2013 (age 26) 416 36 20 1 9 43 40 78 2 1 -0.6 .251 .325 .384 -.079 .254 .331 .401 .255 4.0 99-C -10 1.2
2014 (age 27) 411 34 18 1 8 42 44 77 1 1 -0.5 .246 .328 .368 -.097 .249 .334 .385 .251 2.3 98-C -10 0.9
2015 (age 28) 390 32 17 1 8 39 42 69 1 1 -0.4 .249 .331 .372 -.086 .252 .337 .389 .254 2.8 93-C -6 1.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .206 .274 .287
vs RHP .245 .321 .377
Split -.039 -.047 -.089
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -5.3 -7.0 1.0 $1,025,000 -2.8 3.1
2010 0.0 -8.0 1.2 $1,525,000 1.5 4.2
2011 0.7 -8.0 1.1 $1,650,000 2.0 5.1
2012 1.6 -7.0 1.2 $1,950,000 3.2 7.7
2013 4.2 -10.0 1.2 $2,250,000 4.3 7.3
2014 2.6 -10.0 0.9 $1,800,000 2.4 4.7
2015 3.5 -6.0 1.0 $2,275,000 3.7 7.8
Peak 6.5 $6,275,000 19.9 39.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .257 .233 .199 .234
2010 .267 .240 .210 .245
2011 .270 .238 .220 .247
2012 .262 .239 .210 .249
2013 .274 .249 .216 .255
2014 .284 .254 .208 .251
2015 .278 .246 .214 .254


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 14% 0% 27%
2010 34% 16% 36%
2011 30% 20% 30%
2012 36% 24% 33%
2013 47% 36% 37%
2014 55% 44% 38%
2015 57% 49% 31%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

37

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jesse Levis 1990 34 11 Steve Padia 1985 21
2 Mike LaValliere 1983 31 12 Travis Buck 2006 21
3 Scott Hatteberg 1992 29 13 Doug McConathy 1993 21
4 Ryan McGuire 1994 28 14 Marvin Lowrance 2006 19
5 George Kottaras 2005 26 15 Brian Giles 1993 19
6 Don Barbara 1991 26 16 Anthony Harper 2007 19
7 Mark Verstandig 1988 24 17 Angelo Cuevas 1988 19
8 Raul Ibanez 1994 23 18 Wally Joyner 1984 19
9 Andy Abad 1995 23 19 John Jaso 2006 19
10 Andrew Walker 2008 23 20 Buddy Pryor 1984 18

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