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He's probably very handsome. Daniel Bard
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 23
6' 4"
195 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 GRN 1B 3 5 0 17 17 61.7 55 56 38 3 45% .291 -54 1.80 6.42 7.75 9.40 9.1 12.6 2.6 1.0 -22.3 -1.5
2007 LNC 1C 0 2 0 5 5 13.3 21 22 9 2 52% .388 -105 3.23 10.15 17.82 20.08 14.5 18.0 2.8 2.1 -20.9 -2.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 6:21 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 6 0 26 13 79.3 83 84 39 9 47% .284 -28 2.10 6.42 6.50 6.29 8.8 8.7 4.1 1.0 -7.2 -0.2 0.1
75o 3 6 0 26 13 73.3 85 87 35 11 47% .299 -37 2.33 7.75 7.68 7.54 9.8 9.7 3.9 1.3 -18.0 -1.3 -1.0
60o 2 6 0 26 12 69.3 86 89 32 12 47% .311 -45 2.52 8.71 8.66 8.41 10.5 10.5 3.8 1.5 -24.5 -1.9 -1.7
50o 2 6 0 26 12 67.0 87 90 30 13 47% .318 -49 2.64 9.24 9.29 8.88 11.0 11.0 3.7 1.7 -27.5 -2.2 -2.0
40o 2 6 0 25 12 59.0 92 95 23 16 47% .348 -68 3.16 10.97 12.00 10.28 13.1 13.2 3.2 2.3 -34.4 -3.0 -2.7
25o 1 4 0 24 9 35.7 98 104 6 22 46% .449 -153 5.61 17.39 24.48 15.46 23.2 23.9 1.4 5.4 -43.9 -4.0 -3.9
10o 0 32 14 21 7 217.0 -253 -295 246 -131 46% -.266 #NUM! -2.52 -36.45 #NUM! 21.16 0.0 -11.2 9.4 0.0 -417.6 -47.0 -35.1
Weighted Mean 2 5 0 22 9 51.7 73 75 22 11 47% .331 -58 2.86 10.22 10.42 9.74 11.9 12.0 3.5 1.9 -32.6 -2.3 -2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

53%

66%

29%

36%

1.82

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 23) 2 5 0 22 9 51.7 73 75 22 11 47% .331 -58 2.86 10.22 10.42 9.74 11.9 12.0 3.5 1.9 -32.6 -2.3 -2.3
2009 (age 24) 2 5 0 26 9 58.0 82 60 29 13 46% .335 -43 2.44 9.44 9.12 9.01 11.9 8.5 4.1 2.0 -16.3 -2.0 -1.1
2010 (age 25) 2 5 0 30 9 68.0 88 59 33 14 45% .315 -36 2.15 8.61 7.81 8.32 11.0 7.1 4.1 1.8 -10.9 -1.9 -0.6
2011 (age 26) 2 5 0 30 7 62.0 82 55 31 10 47% .329 -34 2.20 8.11 7.84 7.83 11.2 7.3 4.1 1.5 -6.3 -1.4 -0.3
2012 (age 27)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .306 .526 .491
vs RHB .298 .496 .457
Split +.008 +.030 +.034
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 -2.3 $400,000 -31.7 0.1
2009 -1.1 $400,000 -15.8 0.0
2010 -0.6 $400,000 -10.6 0.1
2011 -0.3 $400,000 -6.1 0.1
2012 -0.3 $400,000 -4.9 0.0
2013 0.0 $400,000 -1.7 0.6
2014 0.0 $400,000 -1.1 0.1
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 7.54 8.88 15.46 9.74
2009 7.12 9.45 13.10 9.01
2010 6.59 8.64 10.37 8.32
2011 7.09 8.41 10.38 7.83
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 36% 0% 53%
2009 61% 44% 42%
2010 67% 55% 35%
2011 74% 63% 37%
2012 84% 71% 32%
2013 88% 84% 27%
2014 91% 87% 23%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

8

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Ryan Mills 2000 38 11 Stephen Randolph 1997 25
2 Melido Dotel 2000 37 12 Carlos Thomas 1993 24
3 Mark Woodyard 2001 34 13 Jon Steitz 2003 24
4 Anthony Pearson 2004 32 14 Jim Rosenbohm 1996 24
5 MIKE SCHIEFELBEIN 1995 32 15 Aaron Sams 1999 23
6 Tom Davey 1996 31 16 Bob McCrory 2005 23
7 Chris Gambs 1996 30 17 Devin Rogers 2001 23
8 Byron Browne 1993 28 18 Billy Blythe 1999 22
9 Corey Avrard 1999 28 19 Joe Petcka 1993 22
10 Craig Whitaker 2007 27 20 Alexander Farfan 2006 22

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