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Brian Barton
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats R
Age 26
6' 3"
187 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Cardinals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
CF 2 Brian Barton 5 37 .254 32 4 24 9 .327 .381 1.8
LF 5 Brian Barton 15 103 .254 32 4 24 9 .327 .381 1.8
RF 6 Brian Barton 5 33 .254 32 4 24 9 .327 .381 1.8
PH 9 Brian Barton 15 92 .254 32 4 24 9 .327 .381 1.8
4   2008 Total 40 265 .254 32 4 24 9 .327 .381 1.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LKC 1B 160 31 14 1 4 32 18 21 7 2 0.5 .414 .506 .624 .696 .296 .369 .458 .284 7.0 25-RF -1 1.1
2005 KIN 1C 273 42 15 6 3 32 34 57 13 8 1.0 .274 .404 .435 .178 .223 .320 .345 .234 -3.9 32-CF 3 1.0
2006 KIN 1C 359 56 16 3 13 57 39 83 26 3 0.9 .308 .410 .515 .348 .240 .321 .419 .264 5.5 24-CF -3 2.1
2006 AKR 2A 171 32 5 0 6 26 13 26 15 5 -1.4 .351 .415 .503 .366 .325 .380 .494 .297 15.9 23-CF 2 1.8
2007 AKR 2A 461 56 18 2 9 59 41 99 20 9 -2.8 .314 .416 .440 .223 .255 .343 .381 .257 -2.7 72-RF -3 2.4
2007 BUF 3A 96 9 3 0 1 7 7 18 1 1 0.5 .264 .333 .333 -.098 .239 .302 .307 .214 -3.5 22-CF -3 0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 6:10 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 559 86 29 4 14 58 50 120 22 6 0.8 .278 .356 .437 .029 .277 .356 .454 .280 19.9 131-RF 1 4.5
75o 520 70 25 3 11 51 44 114 19 6 0.7 .265 .340 .406 -.051 .264 .340 .422 .265 8.5 122-RF 0 3.4
60o 498 63 23 3 10 47 41 111 17 5 0.7 .258 .332 .389 -.094 .256 .332 .405 .257 3.1 118-RF 0 2.9
50o 474 55 20 3 8 43 37 107 16 5 0.6 .250 .322 .371 -.140 .249 .322 .386 .248 -2.4 112-RF 0 2.3
40o 459 51 19 3 8 41 35 105 15 5 0.6 .245 .317 .361 -.167 .244 .317 .375 .242 -5.3 109-RF 0 2.0
25o 427 42 16 2 6 36 31 99 13 5 0.5 .235 .304 .337 -.226 .234 .304 .351 .230 -11.0 101-RF 0 1.3
10o 396 35 14 2 5 31 27 94 11 4 0.5 .226 .293 .317 -.279 .225 .293 .329 .218 -15.2 95-RF 0 0.8
Weighted Mean 502 62 22 3 9 47 40 113 17 6 0.6 .254 .327 .381 -.116 .253 .327 .396 .252 3.5 118-RF 1 2.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

10%

39%

33%

18%

0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 26) 502 62 22 3 9 47 40 113 17 6 0.6 .254 .327 .381 -.116 .253 .327 .396 .252 3.5 118-RF 1 2.7
2009 (age 27) 478 58 22 3 8 47 41 105 17 5 0.5 .254 .330 .378 -.113 .249 .325 .386 .253 0.6 113-RF 0 1.9
2010 (age 28) 435 53 19 2 9 44 38 95 14 5 0.3 .264 .343 .392 -.066 .258 .338 .400 .261 3.5 103-RF 0 1.7
2011 (age 29) 428 50 19 2 9 42 36 96 11 4 0.3 .260 .339 .389 -.080 .255 .333 .397 .258 2.3 102-RF 1 1.5
2012 (age 30) 408 43 17 2 7 37 33 87 11 4 0.2 .247 .321 .367 -.150 .243 .316 .374 .244 -1.4 97-RF 0 0.8
2013 (age 31)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .268 .346 .404
vs RHP .249 .318 .367
Split +.018 +.027 +.037
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.1 1.6 2.7 $3,400,000 0.8 3.2
2009 0.9 1.0 1.9 $2,250,000 -2.3 1.7
2010 0.9 0.8 1.7 $2,475,000 1.9 2.5
2011 0.7 0.8 1.5 $2,250,000 1.5 2.3
2012 0.3 0.5 0.8 $1,100,000 -2.5 0.5
2013 0.3 0.4 0.8 $1,250,000 0.7 1.2
2014 0.2 0.3 0.5 $800,000 -0.8 0.0
Peak 9.4 $9,000,000 1.5 11.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .265 .248 .230 .252
2009 .275 .258 .235 .253
2010 .289 .263 .239 .261
2011 .281 .258 .235 .258
2012 .261 .246 .226 .244
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 18% 0% 10%
2009 38% 17% 11%
2010 49% 38% 17%
2011 56% 41% 13%
2012 68% 51% 7%
2013 81% 70% 9%
2014 89% 84% 6%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Always more of an athlete than a baseball player, Barton hit .326/.424/.506 between Cleveland`s two A-level teams in 2005 . . . and a nation yawned. Last year, he kept hitting, and people began to take notice. He hit for average, he hit for power, he stole 41 bases at a better than 80 percent success rate, he drew walks, and he even proved to be capable in center field. What else do you want, a trip to Europe? The only real negative for Barton is his age--because he spent a full four years at the University of Miami, he`ll turn 25 a month into the 2007 season. Still, this is an undrafted college player who almost certainly is going to have some semblance of a big league career, and that`s a rare thing.

2006

A non-drafted free agent out of the University of Miami, Barton has excellent patience and decent pop, but acquired a poor defensive reputation in right field despite having decent foot speed. Even worse, his bat cooled significantly after a late-June promotion to Kinston, bad news for a player who will turn 24 in April.


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