Antonio Bastardo

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Projected Playing Time
Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 06-30)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Antonio Bastardo 52 9 5.64 1.56 54 29 10 45 3 4 0 -0.3

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	PHL	Ind	1	2	0	9	2	23.1	20	14	27	1	43%	.273	-31	1.47	3.90	0	11.76	11.3	7.8	4.4	2.2	-14.2	0.0	-1.4
2007	LWD	A	9	0	0	15	15	91.7	63	42	98	3	40%	.259	-10	1.15	1.86	10	5.33	8.7	5.6	4.9	1.0	2.5	0.0	1.3
2007	CLR	A+	1	0	0	1	1	5.0	5	3	12	0	36%	.333	53	1.60	7.20	0	11.25	18.0	9.0	15.8	0.0	-2.5	0.0	-0.4
2008	CLR	A+	2	0	0	5	5	30.7	20	10	47	2	27%	.300	29	0.98	1.17	2	3.33	8.7	4.0	9.0	1.7	6.8	0.0	0.9
2008	REA	AA	2	5	0	14	14	67.0	56	37	62	13	32%	.244	-7	1.39	3.76	6	6.09	8.4	4.7	6.0	2.4	-3.5	0.0	0.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:30 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	8	6	1	32	18	121.0	106	54	110	16	35%	.269	19	1.32	4.07	0	4.15	7.8	3.5	7.1	1.2	21.1	2.8	3.2
75^o	7	7	0	32	17	115.0	108	56	102	18	35%	.278	15	1.42	4.71	0	4.80	8.3	3.8	6.9	1.4	11.5	1.8	2.2
60^o	6	7	0	31	17	109.3	109	57	95	20	35%	.286	11	1.52	5.34	0	5.42	8.8	4.1	6.8	1.6	3.1	1.0	1.3
50^o	6	7	0	30	17	105.3	109	58	90	21	35%	.291	8	1.59	5.80	0	5.87	9.2	4.4	6.7	1.7	-2.5	0.4	0.6
40^o	5	7	0	30	17	102.3	110	59	87	21	35%	.295	6	1.64	6.15	0	6.22	9.5	4.5	6.6	1.8	-6.5	0.0	0.2
25^o	5	7	0	29	16	98.3	110	59	82	22	35%	.301	3	1.72	6.67	0	6.72	9.9	4.8	6.5	2.0	-12.0	-0.5	-0.4
10^o	4	7	0	28	16	90.0	109	60	72	24	35%	.313	-3	1.88	7.77	0	7.80	10.8	5.3	6.2	2.3	-22.1	-1.6	-1.5
Weighted Mean	6	7	0	32	17	111.3	114	60	96	21	35%	.289	9	1.56	5.64	0	5.72	9.1	4.3	6.7	1.7	-0.6	0.6	0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
5%	26%	45%	18%	1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 23)	6	7	0	32	17	111.3	114	60	96	21	35%	.289	9	1.56	5.64	0	5.72	9.1	4.3	6.7	1.7	-0.6	0.6	0.7
2010 (age 24)	4	5	0	29	11	81.3	86	41	70	15	35%	.296	6	1.56	5.54	0	5.60	9.3	4.0	6.7	1.7	0.7	0.5	0.7
2011 (age 25)	6	7	1	37	14	105.0	108	52	93	19	34%	.296	9	1.52	5.24	0	5.29	9.2	3.9	6.9	1.6	3.8	1.0	1.0
2012 (age 26)	5	6	1	34	13	94.3	97	46	83	15	35%	.300	9	1.52	5.23	0	5.31	9.2	3.8	6.9	1.4	3.3	0.9	0.9
2013 (age 27)	6	6	1	34	13	98.7	102	45	83	18	35%	.289	8	1.48	5.08	0	5.13	9.1	3.6	6.5	1.6	4.9	1.1	1.1
2014 (age 28)	4	5	1	38	8	79.7	84	33	66	14	34%	.297	6	1.47	5.10	0	5.14	9.4	3.3	6.5	1.6	3.9	0.7	0.8
2015 (age 29)	3	3	0	25	5	50.3	56	22	40	10	34%	.300	2	1.55	5.51	0	5.52	10.0	3.5	6.2	1.8	0.9	0.2	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.227	.331	.399
vs RHB	.253	.362	.470
Split	-.026	-.031	-.072
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.7	$825,000	-2.2	3.4
2010	0.7	$1,025,000	-0.6	6.3
2011	1.0	$1,575,000	2.6	5.9
2012	0.9	$1,575,000	2.2	4.2
2013	1.1	$2,050,000	3.9	5.6
2014	0.8	$1,850,000	3.0	4.7
2015	0.4	$1,225,000	0.1	2.6
Peak	5.2	$4,725,000	11.8	30.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.80	5.87	6.72	5.72
2010	4.63	5.66	7.05	5.60
2011	4.42	5.42	6.90	5.29
2012	4.64	5.44	6.53	5.31
2013	4.08	5.39	7.16	5.13
2014	4.42	5.66	6.98	5.14
2015	4.57	6.04	7.02	5.52

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	18%	0%	5%
2010	31%	3%	11%
2011	42%	12%	14%
2012	41%	16%	13%
2013	52%	26%	11%
2014	53%	35%	10%
2015	63%	35%	3%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

41

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Rigo Beltran	1993	38		11	Tim Conroy	1984	25
2	Jesus Sanchez	1998	34		12	Rafael Valdez	1991	24
3	Paul Spoljaric	1994	30		13	Dan Meyer	2005	24
4	Justin Orenduff	2007	29		14	Juan Nieves	1988	24
5	Gabe White	1995	28		15	Radhames Liz	2007	23
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	2007	27		16	Rick Ownbey	1981	22
7	Matt Beech	1995	27		17	Dan Smith	2007	22
8	Tom Browning	1984	26		18	Ramon Ramirez	2005	22
9	John Henry Johnson	1980	26		19	Randy Wolf	2000	22
10	Chuck James	2005	25		20	Fernando Nieve	2006	22

Player Comments

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2008

Antonio Bastardo had a good year in the Sally League last year. He's a smallish lefty with a good arm and a low-90s fastball, but his secondary stuff needs work.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Antonio Bastardo	52	9	5.64	1.56	54	29	10	45	3	4	0	-0.3

Projected Playing Time