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He's probably very handsome. Bubba Bell
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats L
Age 25
6'
195 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 LOW 1A 108 22 9 2 2 13 13 13 3 3 1.6 .429 .495 .637 .762 .316 .377 .516 .298 15.5 21-RF 1 1.1
2006 GRN 1B 241 30 7 1 3 28 27 31 5 6 -0.9 .231 .326 .317 -.093 .198 .271 .267 .188 -22.8 29-RF -3 -0.3
2006 WIL 1C 68 8 4 1 1 9 8 7 2 0 -0.2 .283 .368 .433 .150 .242 .309 .387 .240 -0.5 0.1
2007 LNC 1C 378 95 27 1 22 83 48 39 10 4 0.3 .370 .455 .665 .514 .296 .373 .503 .296 29.9 55-CF 2 3.7
2007 PME 2A 163 23 5 2 4 22 14 17 4 0 -1.3 .265 .337 .408 .015 .242 .302 .383 .241 -1.1 30-CF 4 0.8


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 6:15 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 598 93 40 5 13 76 54 84 10 4 1.2 .299 .368 .466 .124 .291 .364 .476 .294 31.3 140-CF -5 5.4
75o 538 70 33 4 10 63 46 80 9 4 1.0 .278 .344 .422 .010 .271 .340 .431 .273 13.6 127-CF -5 3.7
60o 515 62 30 3 8 58 43 78 8 4 1.0 .270 .334 .405 -.033 .263 .331 .414 .264 7.6 121-CF -5 3.1
50o 493 55 28 3 7 53 40 76 8 4 0.9 .263 .326 .390 -.073 .255 .323 .398 .256 2.7 116-CF -5 2.6
40o 474 50 26 3 7 49 37 74 7 4 0.8 .257 .319 .378 -.104 .250 .316 .386 .250 -1.0 112-CF -5 2.2
25o 442 42 23 2 5 43 34 71 6 3 0.8 .246 .307 .356 -.160 .240 .304 .364 .238 -6.8 105-CF -5 1.5
10o 398 33 19 2 4 36 29 66 5 3 0.7 .234 .292 .330 -.228 .227 .289 .337 .223 -12.7 95-CF -5 0.8
Weighted Mean 531 63 31 3 8 58 43 81 8 4 0.9 .266 .330 .396 -.056 .259 .326 .405 .259 3.5 125-CF -5 3.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

44%

23%

14%

0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 25) 531 63 31 3 8 58 43 81 8 4 0.9 .266 .330 .396 -.056 .259 .326 .405 .259 3.5 125-CF -5 3.3
2009 (age 26) 478 53 27 3 8 53 38 72 8 4 0.7 .262 .324 .391 -.075 .258 .325 .407 .255 2.1 113-CF -5 2.3
2010 (age 27) 490 58 29 3 9 59 40 70 7 3 0.6 .273 .335 .411 -.023 .269 .336 .428 .265 5.8 116-CF -4 2.3
2011 (age 28) 471 54 26 3 8 54 38 70 6 3 0.5 .271 .334 .405 -.033 .268 .335 .421 .263 4.5 111-CF -5 2.0
2012 (age 29) 462 53 27 2 8 56 38 65 5 3 0.4 .275 .339 .413 -.012 .272 .340 .429 .267 4.5 109-CF -8 1.5
2013 (age 30) 471 53 28 3 8 55 38 65 6 3 0.3 .269 .331 .405 -.040 .266 .333 .421 .262 2.6 111-CF -7 1.2
2014 (age 31) 388 44 22 2 9 48 34 55 5 3 0.3 .282 .346 .432 .031 .279 .348 .449 .275 4.5 93-CF -4 1.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .240 .307 .346
vs RHP .276 .342 .435
Split -.035 -.035 -.090
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.4 1.8 3.3 $5,275,000 6.3 4.9
2009 1.0 1.3 2.3 $3,550,000 3.9 2.7
2010 1.2 1.1 2.3 $4,425,000 7.9 5.4
2011 1.0 1.0 2.0 $3,975,000 6.1 6.5
2012 0.9 0.6 1.5 $2,975,000 4.4 4.2
2013 0.6 0.6 1.2 $2,450,000 3.1 3.6
2014 0.7 0.7 1.4 $3,450,000 5.4 5.7
Peak 12.7 $17,350,000 31.7 27.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .273 .256 .238 .259
2009 .263 .251 .234 .255
2010 .275 .262 .246 .265
2011 .274 .256 .236 .263
2012 .276 .257 .241 .267
2013 .279 .262 .207 .262
2014 .286 .272 .244 .275


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 19%
2009 32% 12% 9%
2010 43% 29% 17%
2011 46% 34% 15%
2012 60% 45% 16%
2013 68% 55% 12%
2014 70% 60% 14%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

61

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Rusty Greer 1992 40 11 Rontrez Johnson 2003 33
2 Doug Deeds 1979 36 12 Ricardo Nanita 1971 33
3 Brian Kowitz 1981 36 13 Chris Denorfia 1982 33
4 Tony Longmire 1970 36 14 Ron Calloway 1960 33
5 Phil Dauphin 1973 35 15 Eric Byrnes 2007 32
6 Mike Frank 1992 35 16 Darren Bragg 1975 32
7 Vince Castaldo 1975 34 17 Rob Lukachyk 1969 32
8 Francisco Leandro 1975 34 18 Brian Cornelius 2000 31
9 Sam Fuld 1957 34 19 Ben Francisco 1979 30
10 Matt Mieske 1998 33 20 Aaron Guiel 2005 30

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