Trevor Bell

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	ORM	0R	4	2	0	16	16	82.1	82	15	53	8	41%	.292	-32	1.18	3.51	9.27	7.90	13.0	4.1	2.4	2.5	-17.5		-0.6
2007	CDR	1B	8	4	0	21	21	115.3	136	23	90	8	56%	.349	-23	1.38	4.14	8.69	8.91	13.6	4.1	3.2	1.8	-36.8		-2.2

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:32 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	9	0	24	24	131.3	163	61	55	17	49%	.312	-7	1.71	5.70	5.76	5.54	10.6	3.8	3.5	1.2	-3.1	0.7	1.2
75^o	5	10	0	24	24	123.7	163	63	49	19	49%	.322	-13	1.82	6.51	6.43	6.33	11.3	4.1	3.3	1.3	-14.9	-0.5	0.0
60^o	5	10	0	23	23	117.0	162	64	44	20	49%	.330	-18	1.93	7.26	7.05	7.04	11.9	4.4	3.1	1.5	-24.5	-1.5	-1.0
50^o	4	10	0	29	21	113.3	162	64	42	20	49%	.334	-24	1.99	7.67	7.40	7.44	12.3	4.6	3.0	1.6	-29.3	-2.1	-1.5
40^o	4	10	0	28	20	109.3	161	64	39	21	48%	.339	-27	2.06	8.14	7.79	7.88	12.6	4.7	2.9	1.7	-34.2	-2.6	-2.0
25^o	3	10	0	28	19	100.0	159	65	32	22	48%	.352	-35	2.23	9.29	8.81	8.97	13.6	5.2	2.7	2.0	-44.7	-3.7	-3.1
10^o	2	9	0	25	17	80.7	152	65	20	24	48%	.381	-54	2.68	11.88	11.46	11.33	16.2	6.5	2.0	2.6	-59.6	-5.3	-4.8
Weighted Mean	4	11	0	31	22	120.7	173	69	44	22	48%	.335	-24	2.00	7.77	7.46	7.54	12.3	4.6	3.0	1.6	-29.7	-2.4	-1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
36%	70%	10%	13%	1.40

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 21)	4	11	0	31	22	120.7	173	69	44	22	48%	.335	-24	2.00	7.77	7.46	7.54	12.3	4.6	3.0	1.6	-29.7	-2.4	-1.3
2009 (age 22)	4	9	0	32	17	103.3	148	53	44	18	48%	.341	-23	1.93	7.57	7.18	7.36	12.2	4.1	3.5	1.5	-21.0	-1.8	-0.8
2010 (age 23)	4	7	0	34	13	91.7	130	45	36	16	47%	.336	-25	1.91	7.35	7.09	7.12	12.2	4.0	3.2	1.5	-15.1	-1.4	-0.5
2011 (age 24)	3	5	0	30	9	72.3	97	35	32	9	48%	.334	-20	1.82	6.75	6.43	6.58	11.5	3.9	3.7	1.2	-7.5	-0.7	0.0
2012 (age 25)	3	5	0	29	8	67.3	91	27	33	9	48%	.337	-15	1.74	6.58	6.13	6.43	11.6	3.2	4.0	1.2	-4.4	-0.6	0.0
2013 (age 26)	2	4	0	31	6	62.3	87	27	31	10	48%	.344	-20	1.84	7.34	6.81	7.14	12.0	3.5	4.2	1.5	-7.1	-1.0	-0.2
2014 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.332	.440	.528
vs RHB	.318	.395	.479
Split	+.014	+.045	+.049
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	-1.3	$400,000	-26.4	0.7
2009	-0.8	$400,000	-18.5	2.0
2010	-0.5	$400,000	-13.0	0.6
2011	0.0	$400,000	-6.2	0.3
2012	0.0	$400,000	-3.5	1.0
2013	-0.2	$400,000	-6.1	0.1
2014	0.3	$525,000	0.0	1.2
Peak	0.6	$150,000	0.0	5.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	6.33	7.44	8.97	7.54
2009	5.77	7.63	9.55	7.36
2010	5.68	7.10	9.35	7.12
2011	5.21	6.14	8.40	6.58
2012	5.33	6.65	7.60	6.43
2013	5.64	8.01	10.53	7.14
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	13%	0%	36%
2009	30%	12%	33%
2010	49%	25%	36%
2011	59%	40%	34%
2012	72%	53%	33%
2013	72%	54%	28%
2014	80%	70%	27%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

64

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Todd Etler	1996	59		11	Carl Hanselman	1992	50
2	Jose Cintron	1997	56		12	Jeremy Lee	1996	49
3	Tony McKnight	1999	55		13	Mark Mangum	2000	49
4	Matt Thompson	2003	55		14	Rick Steed	1992	47
5	Alfredo Garcia	1996	54		15	Dan Denham	2004	47
6	Richard Bartlett	2003	54		16	Miguel Pinango	2004	47
7	Gary Galvez	2005	54		17	TREVOR MALLORY	1994	46
8	Kyle Waldrop	2007	51		18	Brett Herbison	1999	46
9	Brian Edmondson	1994	51		19	Eric Ireland	1998	46
10	Zach Miner	2003	50		20	Justin Miller	1999	46

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