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He's probably very handsome. Douglas Brandt
Anaheim Angels [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 23
6'
205 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 ANG 0R 1 1 1 14 0 20.2 20 10 29 0 55% .389 -27 1.49 4.90 9.20 9.37 14.3 9.4 6.6 0.6 -6.8 -0.5
2007 CDR 1B 3 2 0 17 9 61.3 56 15 64 2 57% .321 -10 1.16 2.35 6.07 5.60 10.9 4.8 4.9 1.0 0.0 0.8
2007 RCU 1C 2 0 2 22 2 43.3 34 15 51 3 45% .295 -1 1.13 2.70 4.96 4.35 8.7 4.6 6.6 1.1 5.5 0.9
2007 SLC 3A 0 1 0 1 1 2.0 8 1 0 0 64% .571 -128 4.50 31.50 38.63 40.50 36.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 -7.8 -1.9


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 6:54 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 5 5 0 28 13 88.0 95 49 58 9 48% .307 -2 1.64 4.68 5.05 4.54 9.2 4.5 5.5 0.9 8.9 1.4 1.9
75o 4 5 0 28 12 83.7 95 49 54 10 48% .316 -5 1.72 5.26 5.51 5.11 9.8 4.7 5.4 1.0 2.6 0.7 1.2
60o 4 6 0 28 12 77.3 96 47 49 10 48% .331 -11 1.85 6.16 6.23 5.99 10.6 4.9 5.3 1.2 -6.0 -0.1 0.3
50o 3 6 0 28 11 74.0 95 47 46 11 48% .338 -13 1.91 6.65 6.63 6.46 11.0 5.1 5.2 1.3 -10.1 -0.6 -0.1
40o 3 6 0 28 11 71.3 95 46 44 11 48% .344 -15 1.97 7.04 6.94 6.83 11.4 5.2 5.1 1.4 -13.0 -0.9 -0.4
25o 2 5 0 27 10 64.7 93 44 39 12 47% .360 -22 2.12 8.12 7.85 7.87 12.3 5.5 5.0 1.6 -20.0 -1.6 -1.2
10o 1 4 0 24 7 47.0 86 38 25 12 47% .406 -40 2.63 11.15 10.82 10.68 15.7 6.5 4.5 2.3 -31.0 -2.7 -2.4
Weighted Mean 3 5 0 28 10 71.7 91 45 45 10 48% .336 -13 1.89 6.53 6.50 6.35 10.9 5.0 5.2 1.3 -8.8 -0.5 0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

22%

46%

29%

15%

1.24

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 23) 3 5 0 28 10 71.7 91 45 45 10 48% .336 -13 1.89 6.53 6.50 6.35 10.9 5.0 5.2 1.3 -8.8 -0.5 0.1
2009 (age 24) 3 5 0 27 9 64.7 81 39 41 8 48% .336 -13 1.85 6.41 6.23 6.27 10.7 4.9 5.3 1.1 -6.0 -0.4 0.1
2010 (age 25) 3 4 0 27 8 63.0 78 37 38 8 46% .329 -14 1.83 6.12 6.11 5.96 10.6 4.8 4.9 1.1 -3.3 -0.2 0.3
2011 (age 26) 3 4 0 25 7 56.0 69 30 36 6 48% .337 -9 1.76 5.77 5.72 5.65 10.6 4.3 5.3 0.9 -1.2 0.1 0.3
2012 (age 27) 3 4 0 28 7 62.0 75 30 42 7 47% .334 -6 1.70 5.75 5.53 5.62 10.4 3.9 5.7 1.0 -0.8 0.1 0.3
2013 (age 28) 2 2 0 18 4 36.0 44 18 25 4 48% .332 -7 1.70 5.79 5.63 5.66 10.4 4.0 5.7 1.1 -0.8 0.0 0.2
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .271 .378 .387
vs RHB .287 .395 .451
Split -.015 -.018 -.064
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.1 $425,000 -7.0 1.8
2009 0.1 $425,000 -4.7 2.7
2010 0.3 $500,000 -2.2 2.2
2011 0.3 $550,000 -0.4 1.0
2012 0.3 $500,000 -0.2 1.8
2013 0.2 $475,000 -0.3 1.1
2014 0.3 $625,000 0.4 0.9
Peak 1.5 $550,000 0.4 10.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.11 6.46 7.87 6.35
2009 4.65 6.20 7.95 6.27
2010 4.58 5.66 7.73 5.96
2011 4.42 5.30 7.20 5.65
2012 4.21 6.11 7.86 5.62
2013 3.96 5.52 9.03 5.66
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 22%
2009 35% 20% 27%
2010 43% 33% 21%
2011 62% 46% 21%
2012 68% 61% 16%
2013 79% 62% 14%
2014 80% 68% 14%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

60

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 MARK YOCKEY 1992 51 11 Matt Murphy 2002 44
2 Rick Betti 1997 50 12 Paul Ahyat 1998 43
3 Aaron Fultz 1997 50 13 John Foster 2002 43
4 Keith Conway 1997 48 14 Trevor Cobb 1997 43
5 Mike Kotarski 1994 47 15 Ray Aguilar 2003 42
6 David Sanders 2003 46 16 John O'Reilly 1998 42
7 Carmen Pignatiello 2006 46 17 Mike Gonzalez 2002 42
8 Trevor Enders 1998 45 18 Shea Douglas 2004 42
9 Richard Roberts 2003 45 19 Zach Frachiseur 2000 42
10 Davis Romero 2006 45 20 Justin Lamber 2000 41

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