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Steve Bray
Milwaukee Brewers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 27
6' 1"
193 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 HDS 1C 3 1 9 26 0 34.7 37 8 39 9 29% .311 -22 1.30 4.93 8.07 6.54 10.5 3.4 6.0 3.1 -3.3 0.2
2005 WIC 2A 1 1 0 20 0 30.7 38 11 40 3 40% .417 -4 1.60 4.40 8.53 8.56 13.2 4.9 8.6 1.3 -9.0 -0.4
2005 OMA 3A 0 0 0 1 0 2.0 2 1 4 0 0% .667 70 1.50 4.50 0.81 0.00 16.2 5.4 16.2 0.0 1.1 0.1
2006 HUN 2A 5 4 1 29 2 63.2 57 7 57 4 38% .301 2 1.01 2.71 4.34 3.97 9.5 1.4 5.5 1.1 10.7 2.3
2006 NAS 3A 2 0 0 21 0 21.1 11 4 18 3 33% .143 -1 0.71 1.28 3.06 2.14 5.1 2.1 5.6 1.7 8.1 1.0
2007 NAS 3A 5 2 1 42 3 77.7 59 26 73 4 37% .272 9 1.09 1.62 3.63 2.34 7.5 3.3 6.8 0.6 26.4 3.5


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 6:56 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 6 3 1 27 9 77.0 65 29 70 8 37% .268 15 1.22 2.68 3.49 2.60 7.5 2.8 7.1 0.9 26.1 2.8 3.5
75o 5 3 1 26 8 71.3 65 28 63 9 37% .278 11 1.30 3.39 4.03 3.34 8.1 3.0 6.9 1.1 18.0 2.0 2.7
60o 4 3 1 25 8 67.7 64 28 59 9 37% .284 8 1.36 3.88 4.39 3.85 8.4 3.1 6.8 1.2 13.2 1.5 2.2
50o 4 3 1 25 7 65.0 64 27 56 9 37% .289 6 1.40 4.25 4.66 4.23 8.7 3.2 6.7 1.3 9.8 1.2 1.8
40o 3 4 1 24 7 61.3 63 27 52 10 37% .295 3 1.46 4.76 5.05 4.76 9.1 3.3 6.6 1.4 5.5 0.8 1.3
25o 3 4 0 22 6 53.3 60 25 43 10 37% .308 -4 1.58 5.90 5.92 5.94 9.9 3.6 6.4 1.6 -2.5 0.0 0.4
10o 2 3 0 19 5 43.7 54 22 33 10 37% .324 -13 1.75 7.43 7.07 7.50 11.0 3.9 6.0 1.9 -9.9 -0.7 -0.4
Weighted Mean 4 3 1 23 7 60.3 59 25 52 9 37% .288 6 1.39 4.24 4.64 4.22 8.7 3.2 6.8 1.3 9.2 1.1 1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

18%

38%

43%

18%

1.09

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 27) 4 3 1 23 7 60.3 59 25 52 9 37% .288 6 1.39 4.24 4.64 4.22 8.7 3.2 6.8 1.3 9.2 1.1 1.6
2009 (age 28) 4 4 1 23 8 65.0 66 27 55 10 37% .295 3 1.43 4.43 4.88 4.41 9.0 3.2 6.6 1.3 6.6 1.1 1.2
2010 (age 29) 4 4 1 24 7 62.7 65 27 52 10 35% .297 1 1.47 4.73 5.20 4.70 9.3 3.2 6.5 1.4 3.5 0.9 0.7
2011 (age 30) 4 4 1 25 7 62.3 67 28 50 8 37% .314 0 1.53 4.66 5.23 4.65 9.6 3.4 6.3 1.1 3.5 0.9 0.7
2012 (age 31) 4 3 1 22 6 56.7 55 23 53 8 36% .293 9 1.37 3.97 4.52 3.92 8.6 3.1 7.3 1.2 4.2 1.2 0.7
2013 (age 32)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 33)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .251 .350 .419
vs RHB .238 .313 .382
Split +.013 +.037 +.037
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.6 $3,125,000 9.5 11.2
2009 1.2 $2,450,000 6.8 7.1
2010 0.7 $1,500,000 3.5 3.4
2011 0.7 $1,575,000 3.6 4.1
2012 0.7 $1,775,000 4.3 4.1
2013 0.5 $1,550,000 3.6 3.3
2014 0.4 $1,075,000 2.0 1.8
Peak 5.5 $8,375,000 27.6 33.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.34 4.23 5.94 4.22
2009 3.77 4.47 5.44 4.41
2010 3.63 4.52 5.60 4.70
2011 3.38 5.05 6.25 4.65
2012 3.34 4.60 6.89 3.92
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 18% 0% 18%
2009 35% 16% 8%
2010 54% 36% 7%
2011 57% 46% 7%
2012 70% 61% 6%
2013 78% 73% 5%
2014 84% 76% 3%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

66

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Shawn Kohn 2007 76 11 Yhency Brazoban 2007 51
2 Jeff Bajenaru 2005 68 12 David Lee 2000 51
3 Frank Funk 1963 60 13 Julio Mateo 2005 50
4 Dan Miceli 1998 56 14 Scott Proctor 2004 50
5 Kurt Knudsen 1994 56 15 Greg Jones 2004 50
6 Phil Hennigan 1973 56 16 Craig Dingman 2001 49
7 Cris Carpenter 1992 54 17 Randy St. Claire 1988 48
8 Jim Mann 2002 54 18 Dan Wheeler 2005 47
9 Mike Burns 2006 53 19 Scott Strickland 2003 47
10 Bill Simas 1999 51 20 Milt Hill 1993 47

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