Jordan Brown

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:24 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	617	89	38	3	16	77	50	81	8	3	-0.6	.300	.362	.465	.115	.297	.361	.482	.293	27.4	144-1B 1	4.6
75^o	588	77	34	3	13	69	47	80	8	3	-0.5	.287	.348	.438	.046	.284	.347	.454	.281	16.4	138-1B 1	3.7
60^o	565	68	31	3	12	63	43	78	7	3	-0.5	.277	.337	.416	-.009	.274	.336	.431	.270	8.2	132-1B 1	3.0
50^o	548	62	29	2	10	59	41	77	7	3	-0.5	.270	.329	.401	-.048	.267	.328	.415	.263	2.8	129-1B 1	2.5
40^o	534	58	27	2	10	56	40	77	7	3	-0.5	.264	.323	.389	-.079	.261	.322	.403	.257	-1.2	126-1B 2	2.1
25^o	513	51	25	2	8	51	37	75	6	3	-0.4	.255	.313	.370	-.126	.253	.312	.383	.247	-7.0	121-1B 2	1.6
10^o	480	43	21	2	7	44	33	73	6	3	-0.4	.243	.300	.343	-.193	.240	.299	.356	.233	-14.3	114-1B 2	0.9
Weighted Mean	576	68	31	3	11	63	44	81	7	3	-0.5	.272	.332	.406	-.034	.270	.331	.421	.265	3.0	135-1B 2	3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
14%	46%	18%	7%	0.76

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 24)	576	68	31	3	11	63	44	81	7	3	-0.5	.272	.332	.406	-.034	.270	.331	.421	.265	3.0	135-1B 2	3.1
2009 (age 25)	557	66	29	2	12	63	44	74	7	3	-0.4	.271	.335	.408	-.028	.273	.339	.430	.266	4.7	131-1B 2	2.6
2010 (age 26)	481	52	25	2	10	53	38	64	6	2	-0.4	.271	.333	.405	-.034	.273	.338	.428	.265	3.6	114-1B 2	2.3
2011 (age 27)	509	59	26	2	12	61	40	68	6	2	-0.4	.272	.335	.413	-.020	.273	.339	.437	.268	4.4	120-1B 0	2.0
2012 (age 28)	435	48	22	2	10	52	37	59	5	2	-0.3	.276	.342	.420	.004	.278	.346	.444	.272	5.3	103-1B 1	1.9
2013 (age 29)	485	53	24	2	11	59	40	64	5	2	-0.3	.268	.330	.404	-.043	.270	.335	.427	.263	2.0	115-1B -1	1.5
2014 (age 30)	467	50	23	1	10	56	40	58	5	2	-0.3	.264	.329	.396	-.058	.266	.334	.418	.261	0.8	110-1B -2	1.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.254	.312	.377
vs RHP	.279	.343	.429
Split	-.025	-.031	-.052
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	1.9	1.2	3.1	$5,025,000	6.6	2.9
2009	1.7	0.9	2.6	$4,600,000	7.5	4.2
2010	1.5	0.8	2.3	$4,100,000	6.1	5.9
2011	1.4	0.7	2.0	$4,000,000	6.2	4.7
2012	1.3	0.6	1.9	$4,375,000	7.5	6.6
2013	1.0	0.5	1.5	$2,825,000	2.7	3.8
2014	0.8	0.5	1.3	$2,250,000	0.9	2.5
Peak			13.5	$19,100,000	36.5	28.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.281	.263	.247	.265
2009	.277	.262	.249	.266
2010	.275	.258	.233	.265
2011	.283	.260	.241	.268
2012	.281	.262	.238	.272
2013	.273	.254	.243	.263
2014	.284	.258	.209	.261

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	7%	0%	14%
2009	22%	6%	17%
2010	33%	11%	15%
2011	42%	27%	20%
2012	59%	36%	19%
2013	55%	39%	14%
2014	64%	50%	16%

Player Comments

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2007

Jordan Brown is one of those unathletic college hitters who has proven he can put up decent numbers in A-ball, but little else; as a 23-year-old bat who is limited to first or left, that`s good, but not nearly good enough.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	MHV	1A	79	15	1	0	3	7	3	7	2	1	1.5	.253	.291	.387	-.036	.234	.253	.325	.193	-11.9	14-LF 0	0.0
2006	KIN	1C	533	71	26	7	15	87	51	59	4	0	-2.0	.290	.362	.469	.203	.254	.312	.414	.251	-6.7	111-LF 5	2.4
2007	AKR	2A	558	85	36	2	11	76	63	56	11	2	-5.7	.333	.421	.484	.307	.298	.376	.445	.287	27.4	92-1B 0	4.0

Historical Stats