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He's probably very handsome. Dominic Brown
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats L
Age 20
6' 5"
204 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 PHL 0R 131 13 3 0 1 7 12 30 13 3 -0.2 .214 .292 .265 -.150 .174 .231 .215 .160 -47.5 14-CF -2 -0.3
2007 WPT 1A 317 43 11 5 3 32 27 49 14 7 -1.2 .295 .356 .400 .165 .246 .294 .355 .225 -26.3 43-RF 0 0.9
2007 CLR 1C 11 2 1 0 1 7 2 0 0 0 0.0 .444 .545 .889 1.135 .556 .636 .999 .525 5.4 0.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 1:12 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 593 82 30 6 12 56 44 118 22 8 1.3 .272 .328 .418 -.051 .267 .326 .409 .255 4.4 139-RF 2 3.5
75o 556 66 26 5 10 48 39 117 19 8 1.2 .252 .308 .380 -.153 .248 .305 .372 .235 -9.0 130-RF 3 2.2
60o 539 60 25 4 9 45 37 116 18 8 1.1 .244 .299 .363 -.196 .240 .297 .356 .226 -14.1 127-RF 3 1.8
50o 522 54 23 4 8 42 35 115 17 7 1.0 .236 .290 .348 -.238 .233 .288 .340 .218 -18.7 123-RF 3 1.3
40o 509 50 22 3 7 39 34 114 16 7 1.0 .231 .284 .336 -.269 .227 .282 .329 .211 -21.9 120-RF 4 1.0
25o 483 43 20 3 6 35 31 112 14 7 0.9 .219 .272 .314 -.327 .216 .270 .307 .197 -27.3 114-RF 4 0.4
10o 448 35 17 2 4 29 27 109 12 7 0.8 .206 .257 .286 -.399 .202 .255 .280 .179 -32.9 106-RF 4 -0.2
Weighted Mean 573 62 25 4 8 46 39 126 18 8 1.0 .238 .291 .350 -.232 .234 .289 .343 .219 -15.2 134-RF 3 1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

38%

59%

24%

8%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 20) 573 62 25 4 8 46 39 126 18 8 1.0 .238 .291 .350 -.232 .234 .289 .343 .219 -15.2 134-RF 3 1.4
2009 (age 21) 550 64 25 4 11 47 40 114 17 7 1.0 .245 .302 .374 -.176 .237 .295 .359 .230 -10.9 129-RF 3 1.8
2010 (age 22) 544 65 26 4 11 48 40 106 16 7 0.9 .251 .309 .384 -.145 .243 .302 .369 .236 -6.8 128-RF 5 2.0
2011 (age 23) 509 61 24 4 11 46 38 97 13 6 0.7 .255 .313 .397 -.117 .247 .306 .382 .241 -3.3 120-RF 3 1.8
2012 (age 24) 472 56 22 3 12 44 36 91 12 5 0.5 .260 .318 .408 -.090 .252 .311 .392 .247 -0.6 112-RF 3 1.5
2013 (age 25) 424 49 20 3 10 40 34 76 12 5 0.4 .258 .321 .404 -.093 .250 .313 .389 .247 -0.6 101-RF 3 1.1
2014 (age 26) 512 63 24 4 12 47 38 84 13 5 0.3 .258 .316 .407 -.098 .250 .309 .391 .245 -0.6 121-RF 4 1.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .208 .259 .293
vs RHP .247 .306 .386
Split -.039 -.047 -.093
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.5 1.9 1.4 $1,475,000 -16.3 0.0
2009 0.1 1.7 1.8 $2,075,000 -12.2 0.5
2010 0.3 1.7 2.0 $2,600,000 -6.3 1.6
2011 0.5 1.3 1.8 $2,375,000 -4.5 2.4
2012 0.5 1.0 1.5 $2,075,000 -1.3 2.1
2013 0.4 0.7 1.1 $1,575,000 -1.0 1.0
2014 0.3 0.8 1.1 $1,725,000 -0.4 1.7
Peak 9.6 $8,575,000 0.0 9.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .235 .218 .197 .219
2009 .252 .233 .214 .230
2010 .255 .238 .222 .236
2011 .261 .241 .218 .241
2012 .264 .245 .232 .247
2013 .269 .252 .223 .247
2014 .269 .245 .231 .245


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 38%
2009 9% 4% 51%
2010 19% 7% 60%
2011 30% 19% 62%
2012 52% 36% 69%
2013 62% 52% 62%
2014 67% 60% 64%

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