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He's probably very handsome. Greg Burns
Florida Marlins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats L
Age 21
6' 2"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 JAM 1A 288 43 5 2 1 11 39 84 17 11 2.7 .257 .366 .307 -.064 .172 .255 .207 .164 -58.6 58-CF 4 -0.6
2006 GRB 1B 387 44 13 8 2 23 38 109 20 13 0.7 .231 .307 .333 -.114 .193 .253 .280 .186 -32.4 100-CF 1 0.2
2007 GRB 1B 468 70 21 4 7 54 40 122 39 6 -1.8 .280 .347 .401 .013 .207 .263 .289 .204 -31.9 119-CF 3 1.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 7:31 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 574 73 31 5 10 43 53 163 26 9 2.0 .238 .312 .376 -.159 .239 .311 .385 .244 -0.2 134-CF 1 3.4
75o 545 60 27 4 7 38 45 158 23 8 1.8 .223 .292 .340 -.253 .224 .291 .348 .224 -12.3 128-CF 0 2.2
60o 533 55 25 4 7 36 43 157 22 8 1.7 .218 .284 .326 -.288 .218 .283 .334 .217 -16.4 125-CF 0 1.7
50o 527 53 24 4 6 35 41 156 22 8 1.7 .215 .280 .320 -.305 .216 .280 .328 .213 -18.3 124-CF 0 1.5
40o 521 50 23 3 6 34 40 155 21 8 1.6 .212 .276 .312 -.325 .213 .275 .320 .209 -20.5 123-CF 0 1.3
25o 501 44 20 3 5 30 36 152 20 7 1.5 .204 .264 .292 -.377 .204 .264 .299 .196 -26.1 118-CF 0 0.7
10o 478 37 17 3 3 27 32 147 18 7 1.4 .194 .251 .269 -.438 .195 .250 .276 .181 -31.7 113-CF -1 0.0
Weighted Mean 545 55 25 4 6 36 43 161 23 8 1.6 .214 .279 .318 -.310 .215 .278 .326 .212 -16.4 128-CF 0 1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

70%

84%

9%

2%

0.88

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 21) 545 55 25 4 6 36 43 161 23 8 1.6 .214 .279 .318 -.310 .215 .278 .326 .212 -16.4 128-CF 0 1.5
2009 (age 22) 518 54 24 3 7 37 41 141 22 8 1.3 .223 .288 .333 -.269 .220 .283 .335 .221 -11.4 122-CF -1 1.5
2010 (age 23) 509 55 24 4 8 37 43 140 20 7 1.0 .225 .294 .347 -.240 .222 .288 .349 .227 -6.6 120-CF -1 1.4
2011 (age 24) 478 55 26 4 8 39 40 124 19 7 0.9 .239 .306 .377 -.168 .236 .301 .379 .240 -0.7 113-CF 0 1.5
2012 (age 25) 395 41 21 3 7 29 32 102 16 5 0.7 .237 .303 .372 -.182 .234 .298 .374 .238 -1.2 94-CF -1 1.1
2013 (age 26) 360 37 16 3 7 28 32 87 17 5 0.5 .235 .308 .365 -.183 .232 .302 .367 .240 -0.8 87-CF -1 0.9
2014 (age 27) 421 47 18 3 8 36 38 95 20 5 0.4 .237 .309 .369 -.176 .234 .303 .371 .242 -0.3 100-CF 0 0.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .185 .247 .268
vs RHP .223 .293 .344
Split -.038 -.046 -.076
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.8 2.3 1.5 $1,600,000 -16.5 0.2
2009 -0.3 1.8 1.5 $1,700,000 -12.2 0.0
2010 0.0 1.4 1.4 $1,675,000 -6.9 1.3
2011 0.3 1.2 1.5 $1,900,000 -0.8 3.3
2012 0.2 0.9 1.1 $1,450,000 -1.5 2.2
2013 0.2 0.7 0.9 $1,225,000 -0.8 1.4
2014 0.2 0.7 0.9 $1,375,000 0.1 1.2
Peak 8.6 $7,500,000 0.4 10.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .224 .213 .196 .212
2009 .243 .223 .202 .221
2010 .247 .226 .208 .227
2011 .260 .236 .221 .240
2012 .264 .233 .219 .238
2013 .263 .237 .196 .240
2014 .262 .238 .227 .242


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 2% 0% 70%
2009 22% 8% 69%
2010 38% 24% 69%
2011 47% 38% 75%
2012 55% 47% 71%
2013 68% 56% 64%
2014 73% 69% 63%

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