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He's probably very handsome. Matthew Buschmann
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 24
6' 3"
209 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 EUG 1A 3 4 0 15 10 60.1 54 11 63 5 47% .316 -16 1.08 3.14 8.01 7.24 11.8 3.9 5.1 2.3 -9.3 -0.6
2006 LEL 1C 1 0 0 2 2 12.1 9 4 5 0 56% .259 -12 1.07 3.72 3.58 5.40 6.2 3.9 1.5 0.0 0.3 0.1
2007 LEL 1C 12 6 0 28 25 149.3 153 26 115 9 54% .325 -2 1.20 2.89 5.19 4.75 10.2 2.7 4.0 1.0 12.9 2.9


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 7:25 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 8 0 25 25 149.0 150 46 87 16 49% .281 8 1.31 3.70 4.56 4.02 9.1 2.6 4.6 0.9 25.0 3.6 4.4
75o 8 9 0 24 24 138.0 149 45 78 16 49% .293 4 1.41 4.39 5.16 4.81 9.8 2.7 4.4 1.1 10.6 2.1 2.9
60o 7 9 0 30 21 130.7 147 45 72 17 49% .300 -4 1.47 4.88 5.58 5.37 10.2 2.8 4.3 1.1 1.5 1.0 1.9
50o 6 9 0 30 20 127.0 146 45 70 17 49% .304 -5 1.50 5.12 5.79 5.65 10.5 2.9 4.3 1.2 -2.5 0.6 1.5
40o 6 9 0 30 20 124.0 145 44 67 17 49% .307 -7 1.53 5.33 5.98 5.89 10.6 3.0 4.2 1.2 -5.9 0.3 1.1
25o 5 9 0 30 18 114.7 142 43 60 17 49% .317 -11 1.61 5.97 6.54 6.62 11.2 3.1 4.1 1.3 -15.1 -0.7 0.1
10o 4 9 0 30 16 99.3 134 41 49 17 48% .332 -19 1.76 7.10 7.53 7.90 12.3 3.4 3.9 1.5 -27.8 -2.1 -1.3
Weighted Mean 7 10 0 34 21 139.0 159 48 76 18 49% .303 -5 1.49 5.09 5.75 5.61 10.4 2.9 4.3 1.2 -1.9 0.7 1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

13%

36%

25%

15%

1.14

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 24) 7 10 0 34 21 139.0 159 48 76 18 49% .303 -5 1.49 5.09 5.75 5.61 10.4 2.9 4.3 1.2 -1.9 0.7 1.3
2009 (age 25) 5 7 0 31 15 102.3 121 36 57 14 49% .310 -10 1.53 5.29 5.92 5.85 10.7 2.9 4.3 1.2 -3.6 0.2 0.7
2010 (age 26) 5 8 0 33 15 108.3 129 36 54 14 46% .307 -12 1.52 5.19 5.90 5.71 10.8 2.7 3.9 1.2 -2.1 0.3 0.7
2011 (age 27) 4 6 0 29 10 80.3 100 28 43 8 49% .329 -12 1.60 5.42 6.16 6.00 11.3 2.9 4.2 0.9 -3.3 -0.1 0.3
2012 (age 28) 5 6 1 34 11 93.7 107 30 54 11 48% .307 -8 1.46 4.88 5.54 5.37 10.4 2.6 4.5 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6
2013 (age 29) 4 5 1 30 8 73.7 84 23 42 10 48% .303 -9 1.46 4.80 5.65 5.24 10.4 2.6 4.5 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.6
2014 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .283 .369 .441
vs RHB .268 .336 .401
Split +.015 +.034 +.040
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.3 $1,375,000 -0.8 6.0
2009 0.7 $775,000 -2.9 4.0
2010 0.7 $875,000 -1.4 4.8
2011 0.3 $550,000 -2.9 2.8
2012 0.6 $1,025,000 1.0 1.4
2013 0.6 $1,100,000 1.4 1.1
2014 0.5 $1,050,000 1.4 1.1
Peak 4.2 $2,825,000 3.8 20.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.81 5.65 6.62 5.61
2009 4.54 5.60 6.94 5.85
2010 4.73 5.53 6.85 5.71
2011 4.43 5.61 8.54 6.00
2012 4.50 5.36 6.32 5.37
2013 4.70 5.27 6.30 5.24
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 13%
2009 35% 17% 15%
2010 45% 29% 12%
2011 65% 42% 11%
2012 71% 55% 11%
2013 74% 59% 8%
2014 86% 71% 9%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

72

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Mike Williams 1992 72 11 Greg Bruso 2004 62
2 Paul Menhart 1993 67 12 Ismael Ramirez 2005 62
3 Jeff Sexton 1996 67 13 Mike Garcia 1992 61
4 Brett Jodie 2001 67 14 Robert Averette 2001 60
5 Brian Lawrence 2000 67 15 Paul Kometani 2007 59
6 Tim Dillard 2007 64 16 Nic Ungs 2004 59
7 Jim Magrane 2002 63 17 Brian Tollberg 1997 59
8 Tim Brown 1993 63 18 KEVIN TATAR 1992 59
9 Michael Laplante 1994 63 19 Brady Raggio 1997 58
10 Kennie Steenstra 1995 62 20 Landon Jacobsen 2003 58

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